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Independent researcher/writer based in Hong Kong since 1997. Reformed academic. My long-form, analytical articles are collected here https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com/ email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
When you are not distracted by the theatrics of the Trump-EUNATO tiff, pause for a moment and consider that the couple spat you are watching is the most effective way to ensure EUNATO will implement Washington's long-standing plan. 👉 Shift the cost and responsibilities of Europe’s defense onto European members of NATO under the Brits' watchful eye. ▪️The militarization of EU countries will require deep cuts to social programs that are already woefully inadequate, an end to excessive consumerism, nationalistic fervor and a fighting spirit that is currently lacking. Enter right-wing, conservative parties. They are better placed than their rivals to whip Europeans into shape. @LauraRuHK
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🔺Chinese shipbuilders account for more than 50% of all merchant vessel cargo capacity produced globally each year, up from just 5% in 1999.
🔺U.S. shipbuilding peaked in the 1970s and now accounts for a sliver of the industry output.
🔹So what is Washington doing about it? ➡️"Let’s just go after any fleet with even a whiff of China in it."
⚡️The US is planning to charge fees for docking at U.S. ports on any ship that is part of a fleet that includes Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels and will push allies to act similarly or face retaliation.
The draft executive order, dated February 27 and reviewed by Reuters on Thursday, proposes fees should be imposed on any vessel that enters a U.S. port, "regardless of where it was built or flagged, if that vessel is part of a fleet that includes vessels built or flagged in the PRC (People's Republic of China)." @LauraRuHK
The European Union, that giant PR machine constantly greased by lobbyists, is looking for a cool €150 billion to throw at some shiny military toys. And, of course, Brussels will have absolutely no problem finding eager suckers to gobble up war bonds.
On Tuesday, Ursula von der Leyen, following recommendations from Mario Draghi, unveiled her new scheme to rake in fresh cash so EU capitals can transfer it to European, British and American arms manufacturers. @LauraRuHK https://www.politico.eu/article/markets-hungry-for-eu-war-bonds-finance-military-spending/
Trump's trade war against China is destined to FAIL
Washington can't dictate terms because China's economy is too diversified. The numbers prove it:
▪️China's exports rose 7.1% to $3.5 trillion in 2024 with the US accounting for just $524.6 billion, per the General Administration of Customs
▪️The share of Global South countries and regions in China's exports ($1.67 trillion) has surpassed that of the top industrialized nations ($1.4 trillion)
▪️Global South countries and regions account for nearly half of its total trade volume, or $2.8 trillion
▪️China trades with 150+ economies
▪️China's total goods trade grew 5% year-on-year to $6.1 trillion in 2024,
▪️ASEAN has remained Beijing’s largest trade partner for five consecutive years. (Source: GeopoliticsLive)
Washington will resume arms shipments to Kiev if the rare-earths deal is signed with Ukraine, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said.
"Speaking to US Congress, [US President Donald] Trump noted with satisfaction that he had already received a letter of repentance from the 'punished' head of the Kiev regime on his readiness for peace talks under the US leadership and the signing of a rare-earths deal. This means that as soon as it is signed, the US arms supplies are likely to resume (and by the way, Europe has already increased them),"
China: If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end. @LauraRuHK
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Oh, please, do enlighten me once more. What was that riveting tale of a bold, fearless US president single-handedly battling the Deep State and triumphantly draining the swamp? I’m just dying to hear it again.
After Trump accused China of controlling the Panama canal (it doesn'!) and vowed to "take it back", BlackRock strikes $23 billion deal to place Panama Canal ports under its control.
CK Hutchison, the Hong Kong-based conglomerate that operates ports near the Panama Canal, has agreed to sell shares of its units that operate the ports to a consortium led by BlackRock.
The deal will give the BlackRock consortium control over 43 ports in 23 countries, including Mexico, the Netherlands, Egypt, Australia, Pakistan and elsewhere. @LauraRuHK
Trump wants a settlement in Ukraine in order to switch to confrontation with China, a former high—ranking American official close to the current US administration said.
"China will be in the center of attention," and the conflict in Ukraine is now perceived by Washington only "as part of the distractions," the source stressed.
Asked what Trump is currently seeking from Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer, the source said it was primarily about helping to "counter China."
The US continues to pursue the idea of driving a wedge between Russia and China. Trump, according to the former official, proceeds from the fact that "it would be better for Russia to be an ally of the US than of China." (Source: TASS)
https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/23297343
“Elementary, my dear Watson!” - Our German Sherlock sees what even the most short-sighted observer has noticed, but then draws all the wrong conclusions. Rather than admitting that Trump is dumping Zelensky because he doesn't want to keep funding a war that is lost, Merz doubles down on his support for Zelensky and refuses to acknowledge that the plan to outsource the cost of this unwinnable war, and responsibility for its crimes, to European knobs dovetails quite nicely with Trump's "America First - Damn the Rest." @LauraRuHK https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-white-house-clash-germany-volodymyr-zelenskyy-jd-vance-ukraine-war/
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Ouch, that’s gonna leave a bruise on US producers. China is the biggest market for U.S. agriculture products despite a decline in imports since 2018 after Beijing imposed tariffs on soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum in retaliation for duties on Chinese goods imposed by Trump.
China imported $29.25 billion worth of U.S agriculture products in 2024. @LauraRuHK
Six months before Trump was elected president, Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank that led Project 2025 – a sort of road map for Trump 2.0 – recommended a policy of deliberate ambiguity toward China to determine the tempo, tenor, and contours of Sino-U.S. competition in the coming years.
A bipartisan think tank, Brookings, echoed that recommendation as Trump was forming his cabinet. ▪️Some researchers have suggested that Trump’s seemingly erratic behaviour makes him an ideal conveyor of a U.S. policy based on the strategic ambiguity that gained much currency during the Nixon’s administration and was described as the Madman Theory. It dates back to at least 1517 when Niccolò Machiavelli wrote in The Prince that sometimes it is “a very wise thing to simulate madness.” The inklings of an idea that appeared in the work of Machiavelli eventually inspired a coterie of Harvard University scholars that included Henry Kissinger to ponder the limitations of rationality in grand strategy during the late 1950s and early 1960s – a rational U.S. president would seek to avoid a nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union at all costs, but a “convincingly mad” one could credibly threaten large risks and therefore make the adversary blink first.
▪️What is certain is that the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity vis-à-vis China long predates Trump’s presidency and will likely continue to underpin Washington’s diplomatic engagement with China and Russia. Such engagement is being conceptualized as the most promising one to both avoid military confrontation at a time when the U.S. isn’t prepared for it, and to offer both real and imaginary incentives to ensure the Sino-Russian partnership won’t deepen even further. ▪️Read more in my latest article https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/03/01/maga-effect-on-us-china-relations-strategic-ambiguity-on-steroids/
Keir Starmer confirmed that Zelensky will star in the British sequel of "Our Ukraine" - the large budget film that propelled the obscure Ukrainian actor into a blazing career. They signed a £2.26bn ($2.8 bn) loan for military supplies. The film producer claimed that the loan would be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets. @LauraRuHK
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The Machiavellian "Madman Theory", strategic ambiguity, hybrid warfare, tariffs galore, attempts to derail the "no-limit" partnership between China and Russia, the emergence of a multipolar order, efforts to stem imperial decline. This, and more in my latest article.
▪️Six months before Trump was elected president, Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank that led Project 2025 recommended a policy of deliberate ambiguity toward China to keep Beijing off balance and determine the tempo, tenor, and contours of Sino-U.S. competition. ▪️Trump’s “revolution of common sense” is a return to conservative values, but the economy and society are so broken that it will take a long time for the country to gain a competitive edge over China, if ever. MAGA appears as a clumsy attempt to install a new cultural software without upgrading the system and that’s why it is doomed to fail. https://lauraruggeri.substack.com/p/the-maga-effect-on-us-china-relations?utm_source=activity_item
🇨🇳 At a press conference during China's annual session of parliament on Friday, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the combination of tariffs on Chinese goods and Trump's expressions of willingness to have good relations with Beijing were incongruous.
"No country should expect to suppress and contain China on one hand while developing a good relationship with it on the other. Such a two-faced approach not only undermines the stability of bilateral relations but also fails to build mutual trust. [...] Pursuing self-interest at the expense of others, or wielding power to intimidate, is unacceptable."
"I want to emphasize that regardless of changes in the international landscape, the historical logic of the China-Russia friendship remains unchanged and the internal driving forces behind our relationship remain strong."
"Both sides have deeply reflected on historical experiences and have committed to long-term, good-neighborly relations, comprehensive strategic coordination and mutually beneficial cooperation. This approach best serves the fundamental interests of both peoples and aligns with the broader trends of global development and progress. China and Russia have established a unique model of engagement — one that is nonaligned, nonconfrontational and not directed at any third party."
"A mature, resilient and stable" relationship "will not change due to temporary events, nor will it be swayed by external influences. It is a constant in an uncertain world, not a variable in geopolitical competition."
One fine morning the EU woke up and realized that the world is not the US’ playground anymore.
The contemporary geopolitical environment is undergoing a profound transformation, characterized by the reemergence of “spheres of influence”. While there is no great military power in the American continent to counter Washington's ambitions and predatory tendencies, the EU can't further expand its influence in Europe without running into Russian tanks and triggering a nuclear conflict. Like it or not, the greater part of Ukraine is historically, culturally and linguistically Russian. The sooner Brussels smells the coffee, and abandons its delusions, the better for Europeans. @LauraRuHK
Trump's tariffs raise inflation, shrink income, U.S. analysis reveals
The Trump administration's recent tariff policy would drive inflation upward by a full percentage point and see about 1,600 U.S. dollars in disposable income wiped away annually from the average U.S. household, a U.S. think tank revealed.
The price level in the United States is estimated to rise by 1.0 to 1.2 percent, equivalent to a consumer loss of 1,600 to 2,000 dollars per household on average in 2024 dollars due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico and China, according to an analysis released by the Yale Budget Lab on Monday.
The analysis said that tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short run, which means that tariffs burden households at the bottom of the income ladder more than those at the top.
It also said that the real U.S. GDP growth will be 0.6 percentage points lower in 2025, and in the long run, the U.S. economy will be persistently 0.3 to 0.4 percent smaller, the equivalent of 80 to 110 billion dollars annually in 2024 dollars. (Source: Xinhua) @LauraRuHK
🔎 Trump's trade war against China destined to FAIL
Washington can't dictate terms because China's economy is too diversified. The numbers prove it:
▪️China's exports rose 7.1% to $3.5 trillion in 2024 with the US accounting for just $524.6 billion, per the General Administration of Customs
▪️The share of Global South countries and regions in China's exports ($1.67 trillion) has surpassed that of the top industrialized nations ($1.4 trillion)
▪️Global South countries and regions account for nearly half of its total trade volume, or $2.8 trillion
▪️China trades with 150+ economies
▪️China's total goods trade grew 5% year-on-year to $6.1 trillion in 2024,
▪️ASEAN has remained Beijing’s largest trade partner for five consecutive years
China's top 5 partners by total trade volume (2024)
🔻ASEAN – $982 billion
🔻EU – $785.8 billion
🔻US – $688 billion
🔻Latin America – $518 billion
🔻Africa – $295.5 billion
China is steadily reducing reliance on the US market, shifting its focus to Global South consumers.
As Donald Trump doubles tariffs on all Chinese imports from 10% to 20%, Beijing has responded with 15% and 10% tariffs on US agricultural products - impacting $21 billion in exports.
👍 Boost us | Chat | Stickers |@geopolitics_live
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy believe that over the past three years, the US has spent $64 billion on military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and $50 billion on other financial injections, while the EU has spent $62 billion and $70 billion, respectively. The US assumed the cost of delivering and repairing equipment, as well as providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with intelligence. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-after-3-years-of-war-aid-flows-remain-low-but-steady-shift-towards-weapons-procurement/ Despite their combined support, Ukraine is losing the war. Only an idiot, and there is no shortage of them in the EU, would believe that without US funding, military aid and intelligence Ukraine stands a chance. The EU can't fill the gap left by the Americans without destroying itself. @LauraRuHK
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I have no portfolio, but why let a tiny little detail like that stand in the way of me heroically claiming my free drinks at this free event? I may learn a thing or two. 😅
@LauraRuHK
🇯🇵 Japan's lower house has passed a draft core budget for 2025, worth more than 115 trillion yen (more than $770 billion).
8.7 trillion yen (more than $58 billion) for defense. In particular, the budget envisages the allocation of funds for developing long-range missiles. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
THE HANDOVER OF THE UKRAINE PROJECT Donald Trump has given instructions to suspend all military assistance to Kiev. A Pentagon official told TASS that the US Armed Forces had suspended supplies of military aid to Ukraine. According to him, the move concerns all US military equipment that has not yet reached Ukraine, including weapons transported by aircraft and vessels or waiting to be shipped from transit zones in Poland.
▪️Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday presented a five-point ‘REARM Europe, a €800 billion plan for boosting defence spending, only hours after US President Donald Trump reportedly froze military aid to Ukraine. A first step would include activating the escape clause of the EU's Stability and Growth Pact, which limits budget deficits among EU countries, to allow for higher military spending.
As a second step, the EU will propose €150 billion in loans to boost joint procurement in a wide range of capabilities such as air defence, drones, military mobility or cyber defence.
A third option would be to propose "additional possibilities and incentives" for EU countries if they decide to use cohesion programmes to boost military spending.
The fourth and fifth options would be to mobilise private capital through the EU Savings and Investment Union and the European Investment Bank (EIB). Von der Leyen said that the plan will allow EU countries to quickly send military equipment to Ukraine, including air and missile defence systems, artillery, missiles, drones, and anti-drone systems. @LauraRuHK
Can you spot "the new leader of the free world" that Kaja Kallas is desperately looking for? I couldn't. @LauraRuHK
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I’ve been summoned by a subscriber to quit my secret side gig of "propping up authoritarian regimes." Well, that was the gist of the message, which contained a few expletives i am too ladylike to repeat. So, just because it's Sunday, i have decided to take a break from that dishonourable activity and post something that will restore my reputation in the eyes of sincere democrats. https://www.academia.edu/11537403/_The_Poetics_of_Urban_Inscription_from_Metaphorical_Cognition_to_Counter_representation_Critical_Architecture_edited_by_Jane_Rendell_Mark_Dorrian_Jonathan_Hill_Murray_Fraser_Routledge_2008
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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed a declaration to expedite delivery of approximately $4 billion in military assistance to the genocidal entity.
The Trump administration has approved nearly $12 billion in military sales to Israel, Rubio said in a statement, adding that it "will continue to use all available tools to fulfill America’s long-standing commitment to Israel’s security, including means to counter security threats."
Rubio said he had used emergency authority to expedite the delivery.
@LauraRuHK
A show in the Oval Office... and the reality of war. Elena Panina writes:
"In accordance with section 202 (d) of the Law on National Emergencies (50 U.S.C. 1622(d), I am extending for one year the state of emergency in the country declared in Decree 13660," with this phrase, on February 27, Trump extended for a year the anti—Russian sanctions imposed by Barack Obama on March 6. In 2014, due to the reunification of Crimea with Russia. Further, during the years of his first presidency, Trump and then Joe Biden expanded the list of sanctions under this "emergency regime" several times.
It is noteworthy that on the same day, February 27, negotiations between Russia and the United States on the normalization of diplomatic cooperation took place at the American Embassy in Turkey.
The other day, the same US president said this: "Right now we are not providing anything [to Ukraine in the military field]." However, the facts suggest otherwise. Just during the period from February 21 to February 24 at least 6 commercial airline Boeing transports, two C-17A transports of the US Air Force and one Ukrainian An-124 with military assistance for the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrived at the Polish airfield in Rzeszow (/channel/operline_ru/42366 )
And here is the data (/channel/operline_ru/42327 ) on the work of the Ukrainian Express in Rzeszow during the first month of Trump's presidency: at least 54 flights of commercial Boeing transport aircraft from US air bases and the Arabian Peninsula, at least 10 flights by C-17A and C-130 military transport aircraft of the US Air Force from US air bases, Europe and the Arabian Peninsula, at least 6 flights by Ukrainian AN-124 transporters from US air bases.
In addition, since February 10, Rzeszow has received at least 11 flights of Canadian Air Force C-130J aircraft from Air Base Karup in Denmark — with military cargo, most likely they arrived from the US to Europe by sea.
Apparently, this is what the Trump administration understands by a "favorable" negotiating background, constantly repeating that they have made "very good" progress in resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
Today the new American authorities continue (/channel/EvPanina/15954 ) the policy of the previous administration towards Russia, including regularly supplying weapons to Kiev and extending long—term sanctions against our country. Against this background, Kiev's relentless terrorism is casting a shadow over the new US administration, which is not in too much of a hurry to stop it. /channel/EvPanina/15954
Dmitry Medvedev:
For the first time, Trump told the cocaine clown the truth to his face: the Kiev regime is playing with World War III. And the insolent pig finally got a proper slap from the owners of the pigsty. That's good. But not enough - military aid to the Nazi machine must be stopped.
Russian Security Council Chief Sergey Shoigu is in Beijing for bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping & FM Wang Yi. /channel/smotri_media/103524
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Teoria machiavellica del Pazzo, ambiguita' strategica, guerra ibrida, dazi dazi dazi, i tentativi di far deragliare il partenariato "senza limiti" tra Cina e Russia, l'emergere di un ordine multipolare, declino imperiale. Questo, e molto altro, nel mio ultimo articolo per L'Antidiplomatico.
Il MAGA (Make America Great Again) appare come un tentativo maldestro di installare un nuovo software culturale senza aggiornare il sistema ed è per questo che è destinato a fallire. @LauraRuHK https://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-leffetto_maga_sulle_relazioni_usacina_cresce_lambiguit_strategica/5871_59336/