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Independent researcher/writer based in Hong Kong since 1997. Reformed academic. My long-form, analytical articles are collected here https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com/ email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
There is a strong indication that external forces are exploiting local grievances to destabilize the Western Balkans
The Prosecutor's Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) ordered the detention of Serb leader Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, among others. ▪️Meanwhile in Serbia protests are turning more violent. Demonstrators blocked state broadcaster offices in Belgrade and Novi Sad overnight and a police officer was injured in a clash outside the building of Radio Television of Serbia. Organizers called for a mass protest in Belgrade on March 15. Serbian authorities believe that the goal of the protesters is to overthrow the government and the president, and that Western-funded media and organizations are behind their actions. President Vučić said earlier that students and opposition supporters would try to seize a number of state buildings in order to force the country's leadership to agree to the formation of a transitional government. He also indicated that rioters will be detained by the police and will receive long prison sentences. ▪️Serbia recorded real GDP growth of 3.9 percent in 2024, making it the second-fastest-growing economy in Europe after Malta, according to the latest Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT) report published on Tuesday by Serbia's Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Economics Institute. @LauraRuHK
Yesterday in Jeddah Ukraine capitulated to the US. Again. Kiev had already capitulated to the United States in 2014 by breaking cookies with Victoria Nuland, so nothing fundamentally new happened in Jeddah.
Ukraine's capitulation (not so much to Russia as to reality), which can really put an end to this ethno-political conflict, is still to come. @LauraRuHK https://ria.ru/20250312/kapitulyatsiya-2004448813.html
Another day, another glorious "strategic repositioning" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces—because who doesn’t love a good euphemism for collapse? And, surprise, surprise, right on cue, here comes the next delightful little gift from the Kiev regime and its advisers. A terrorist attack? A missile strike on some peaceful border spot? No, no, we’re treated to the grand spectacle of a massive drone raid. How predictable! Naturally, the bullseye is painted on Moscow and the Moscow Region because, of course, that’s how the brilliant Ukro minds operate.
“Let’s hit Moscow, slaughter some civilians—oh, the terror! They’ll tremble and finally see how serious we are!” Yeah, real genius plan. Except, oops, it’s just a terrorist attack, plain and simple. Bombing homes and civilian airports? That’s not strategy, that’s a tantrum. Terror 101, brought to you by the former Ukraine.
Unfortunately, there’s more where this came from. The worse things get for Ukraine’s crumbling army, the nastier these stunts will be. @LauraRuHK
Russian air defenses have downed 69 drones over the Moscow Region and several more over other regions in the European part of the country.
Regions under attack
- Air defenses shot down 69 drones flying towards Moscow.
- A drone attack on the city of Ryazan was foiled.
- Electronic warfare systems repelled a drone attack on the Suvorovsky District of the Tula Region.
- Several unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) attacked the Belgorod Region.
- Three drones were jammed in the Vladimir Region.
- Eight UAVs were destroyed in the Kaluga Region.
Restrictions at airports
- Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency introduced restrictions on inbound and outbound flights at the following airports: Zhukovsky, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Strigino (Nizhny Novgorod) and Tunoshna (Yaroslavl).
Aftermath
- One person was killed and another three suffered injuries in Vidnoye and Domodedovo in the Moscow Region.
- Seven apartments in a high-rise building were damaged in the Ramensky District of the Moscow Region.
- Railway infrastructure at Domodedovo Station suffered minor damage and railway traffic was disrupted.
- One person was killed after drone debris fell on a parking lot at the Miratorg agribusiness company’s facility in Domodedovo.
- The roof of a house on Domodedovskaya Street in Moscow suffered minor damage.
- A total of 36 settlements were left without electricity in the Belgorod Region; several houses and cars were damaged.
- According to preliminary reports, there were no casualties or damage in the Ryazan, Tula and Vladimir regions.
- A fire broke out after a drone attack on the Peremyshlsky District in the Kaluga Region, and the windows of a residential building were shattered in the Zhukovsky District. (Source: TASS) @LauraRuHK
If pipes are not used for gas...then they can be used by the spetsnaz 😉
The feat near Sudzha not only changed the course of military operations in the Kursk region, but also showed how resourceful the Russian army is. Crawling through a pipe for several hours, breathing in the remains of methane, and then engaging in a tough fight behind enemy lines...
Operation Potok is really something out of a movie. (Source: Readovka) @LauraRuHK
The Russian economy has exhibited a remarkable capacity for resilience, effectively navigating the unprecedented pressures imposed by an extensive sanctions regime. Contrary to expectations, this sanctions framework has inadvertently conferred advantages upon Russia, fostering an environment in which domestic investment, personal savings, wages, and consumption have increased. Under record sanctions, Russia has become the world’s fourth-largest economy. ▪️Multinational corporations that previously withdrew from the Russian market now express a keen interest in re-establishing their presence.
This presents a great opportunity for Russian authorities to set conditions, which should include mandates for Western firms to establish operations within Russia’s newly integrated regions. For instance, major retailers might be asked to set up a flagship store in Donetsk or Mariupol, contribute to infrastructural development, and implement discount programs for veterans of the special military operation prior to securing authorization to operate in major urban centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
▪️A critical consideration remains the preservation of Russia’s import substitution initiatives should Western corporations be permitted to return. In strategic sectors such as automotive and aerospace manufacturing, re-entry might be contingent upon the transfer of advanced technologies and the localization of production within Russia. @LauraRuHK
Hillary Clinton's emails regarding Syria reveal that the U.S. toppling Assad would ignite a "Sunni-Shia" war, but that would ultimately serve Israel, as it would lead to the collapse of Iran's nuclear project (!)
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Ethnic cleansing continues in Syria. But after whitewashing terrorists, world leaders ignore the massacres of Alawites and Christians and their pleas for help. Civilians from Latakia rushed to Khmeimim, to seek protection in the Russian military base. According to approximate data, there are about 7 thousand civilians there. It is clear that when Mohammed al-Jolani, the jihadi leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, said that he would build a free and just society in Syria and that Syrians would be able to freely profess their faith he was just engaging in PR to gain credibility for his new role.
Although most states recognized the new authorities because it is convenient, the indiscriminate massacre of thousands of men, women and children cannot be justified under any pretext, including Raison d'état. The current explosion of violence against Syrian minorities plays into the hands of those who have always had a vested interest in destabilizing the country - the US, Israel and Turkey. @LauraRuHK
China will soon hold a joint naval exercise with Iran and Russia In early and mid-March, China, Iran and Russia will hold the Security Belt-2025 joint exercise near Iran’s Chabahar Port, in the Gulf of Oman, between the Strait of Hormuz and the Indian Ocean, a strategic pathway crucial to energy shipping. The three countries participating in the drills have energy cooperation as well as important strategic interests in maintaining peace and stability in the region.
The drill will feature training courses including maritime target strike, VBSS (visit, board, search, and seizure), damage control as well as joint search and rescue operations.
Security Belt-2025 will be the fifth China-Iran-Russia joint naval exercise since 2019. @LauraRuHK
When you are not distracted by the theatrics of the Trump-EUNATO tiff, pause for a moment and consider that the couple spat you are watching is the most effective way to ensure EUNATO will implement Washington's long-standing plan. 👉 Shift the cost and responsibilities of Europe’s defense onto European members of NATO under the Brits' watchful eye. ▪️The militarization of EU countries will require deep cuts to social programs that are already woefully inadequate, an end to excessive consumerism, nationalistic fervor and a fighting spirit that is currently lacking. Enter right-wing, conservative parties. They are better placed than their rivals to whip Europeans into shape. @LauraRuHK
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🔺Chinese shipbuilders account for more than 50% of all merchant vessel cargo capacity produced globally each year, up from just 5% in 1999.
🔺U.S. shipbuilding peaked in the 1970s and now accounts for a sliver of the industry output.
🔹So what is Washington doing about it? ➡️"Let’s just go after any fleet with even a whiff of China in it."
⚡️The US is planning to charge fees for docking at U.S. ports on any ship that is part of a fleet that includes Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels and will push allies to act similarly or face retaliation.
The draft executive order, dated February 27 and reviewed by Reuters on Thursday, proposes fees should be imposed on any vessel that enters a U.S. port, "regardless of where it was built or flagged, if that vessel is part of a fleet that includes vessels built or flagged in the PRC (People's Republic of China)." @LauraRuHK
The European Union, that giant PR machine constantly greased by lobbyists, is looking for a cool €150 billion to throw at some shiny military toys. And, of course, Brussels will have absolutely no problem finding eager suckers to gobble up war bonds.
On Tuesday, Ursula von der Leyen, following recommendations from Mario Draghi, unveiled her new scheme to rake in fresh cash so EU capitals can transfer it to European, British and American arms manufacturers. @LauraRuHK https://www.politico.eu/article/markets-hungry-for-eu-war-bonds-finance-military-spending/
Trump's trade war against China is destined to FAIL
Washington can't dictate terms because China's economy is too diversified. The numbers prove it:
▪️China's exports rose 7.1% to $3.5 trillion in 2024 with the US accounting for just $524.6 billion, per the General Administration of Customs
▪️The share of Global South countries and regions in China's exports ($1.67 trillion) has surpassed that of the top industrialized nations ($1.4 trillion)
▪️Global South countries and regions account for nearly half of its total trade volume, or $2.8 trillion
▪️China trades with 150+ economies
▪️China's total goods trade grew 5% year-on-year to $6.1 trillion in 2024,
▪️ASEAN has remained Beijing’s largest trade partner for five consecutive years. (Source: GeopoliticsLive)
Washington will resume arms shipments to Kiev if the rare-earths deal is signed with Ukraine, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said.
"Speaking to US Congress, [US President Donald] Trump noted with satisfaction that he had already received a letter of repentance from the 'punished' head of the Kiev regime on his readiness for peace talks under the US leadership and the signing of a rare-earths deal. This means that as soon as it is signed, the US arms supplies are likely to resume (and by the way, Europe has already increased them),"
China: If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end. @LauraRuHK
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Russian troops are rapidly advancing in the Kursk region, where they have liberated 12 villages over the past 24 hours.
Earlier, the city of Sudzha was returned to the control of Russian forces. In the Donetsk People's Republic, Russian troops have liberated the settlements of Novomarkovo and Dneproenergia, Russia's Defense Ministry announced. ▪️This “ball” is in Russia’s court, other balls can wait. 😏 @LauraRuHK
Did you really believe that Washington would retire its infamous agitprop weapon? Well, you shouldn't pay too much attention to what Trump says and pay more attention to what Washington does. Funding has been restored and the meddling machine known as NED will continue to orchestrate and bankroll regime change and influence operations around the world. @LauraRuHK
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This is not the first time that a visit to Moscow by a high-ranking foreign delegation has been accompanied by an attack by Ukrainian drones. And tonight, the Kiev regime sent drones to the capital when the OSCE Secretary General was visiting. The head of the organization that Zelensky's sponsors have reduced to a talking shop, depriving it of its original purpose - ensuring security and cooperation in Europe.
The Romanian central election authority’s decision to bar Calin Georgescu from running for president creates a dangerous precedent ahead of Moldova’s parliamentary elections, Igor Dodon, leader of Moldova’s opposition Party of Socialists and former president, said.
"The decision to bar independent candidate Georgescu from running for president causes concern in Moldova. Polls show that he is the frontrunner in presidential race and that globalists have resorted to such violations in the democratic process at our neighbors’ and barred him from the election under an invented pretext. So, what will they resort to keep Maia Sandu and her ruling Party of Action and Solidarity in power at the upcoming elections to the Moldovan parliament this autumn? Such double standards that are practiced in Romania and other countries are dangerous as they only widen a gap in society, sow the seeds of civil disobedience," he told TASS.
Earlier, Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau refused to register Georgescu as candidate for president at the May 4 election. According to the Agerpress news agency, clashes between Georgescu’s supporters and the police erupted near the building of the Central Electoral Bureau immediately after its decision was made public. (Source: TASS) @LauraRuHK
Nope. That was a psyop. The US has never suspended intelligence sharing with the Kiev regime. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steven Witkoff told Fox News:
"My best understanding <…> is that we never shut off intelligence for anything defensive that the Ukrainians need."
US-South Korea war games go terribly wrong. Two fighter jets mistakenly bombed a village during a live-fire drill, injuring 29 people and destroying homes.
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The Office of the US Trade Representative will hold a hearing on Tuesday into older Chinese-made "legacy" semiconductors. These chips power everyday goods, from autos to washing machines to telecoms gear. ▪️The move comes amid reports that the US may further increase tariffs and restrictions in an effort to curb China's semiconductor industry. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains questionable. As the US intensifies its crackdown on Chinese semiconductors, a notable trend has emerged: China's integrated circuit exports are on the rise. This phenomenon underscores a critical point - Washington's efforts to suppress China's chip industry have not thwarted its continuous growth and expansion. The development of China's semiconductor manufacturing is deeply rooted in the country's comprehensive industrial foundation and well-established industrial systems. This domestic strength suggests that while external pressures may pose challenges, they are unlikely to derail the momentum of China's semiconductor sector. @LauraRuHK https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1329794.shtml
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Today's long read contains a lot of food for thought. Thanks to Karl for the commentary. https://karlof1.substack.com/p/vasily-kashin-what-kind-of-empire?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1779344&post_id=158666917&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3ogpak&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
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The Russian army has retaken more villages seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region, in a fresh setback for Kiev that intended to use the territory as a bargaining chip. The liberation of the village of Lebedevka in the Kursk region brings Russian forces closer to Sudzha, which is still under Ukrainian occupation. @LauraRuHK
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🇨🇳 At a press conference during China's annual session of parliament on Friday, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the combination of tariffs on Chinese goods and Trump's expressions of willingness to have good relations with Beijing were incongruous.
"No country should expect to suppress and contain China on one hand while developing a good relationship with it on the other. Such a two-faced approach not only undermines the stability of bilateral relations but also fails to build mutual trust. [...] Pursuing self-interest at the expense of others, or wielding power to intimidate, is unacceptable."
"I want to emphasize that regardless of changes in the international landscape, the historical logic of the China-Russia friendship remains unchanged and the internal driving forces behind our relationship remain strong."
"Both sides have deeply reflected on historical experiences and have committed to long-term, good-neighborly relations, comprehensive strategic coordination and mutually beneficial cooperation. This approach best serves the fundamental interests of both peoples and aligns with the broader trends of global development and progress. China and Russia have established a unique model of engagement — one that is nonaligned, nonconfrontational and not directed at any third party."
"A mature, resilient and stable" relationship "will not change due to temporary events, nor will it be swayed by external influences. It is a constant in an uncertain world, not a variable in geopolitical competition."
One fine morning the EU woke up and realized that the world is not the US’ playground anymore.
The contemporary geopolitical environment is undergoing a profound transformation, characterized by the reemergence of “spheres of influence”. While there is no great military power in the American continent to counter Washington's ambitions and predatory tendencies, the EU can't further expand its influence in Europe without running into Russian tanks and triggering a nuclear conflict. Like it or not, the greater part of Ukraine is historically, culturally and linguistically Russian. The sooner Brussels smells the coffee, and abandons its delusions, the better for Europeans. @LauraRuHK
Trump's tariffs raise inflation, shrink income, U.S. analysis reveals
The Trump administration's recent tariff policy would drive inflation upward by a full percentage point and see about 1,600 U.S. dollars in disposable income wiped away annually from the average U.S. household, a U.S. think tank revealed.
The price level in the United States is estimated to rise by 1.0 to 1.2 percent, equivalent to a consumer loss of 1,600 to 2,000 dollars per household on average in 2024 dollars due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico and China, according to an analysis released by the Yale Budget Lab on Monday.
The analysis said that tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short run, which means that tariffs burden households at the bottom of the income ladder more than those at the top.
It also said that the real U.S. GDP growth will be 0.6 percentage points lower in 2025, and in the long run, the U.S. economy will be persistently 0.3 to 0.4 percent smaller, the equivalent of 80 to 110 billion dollars annually in 2024 dollars. (Source: Xinhua) @LauraRuHK
🔎 Trump's trade war against China destined to FAIL
Washington can't dictate terms because China's economy is too diversified. The numbers prove it:
▪️China's exports rose 7.1% to $3.5 trillion in 2024 with the US accounting for just $524.6 billion, per the General Administration of Customs
▪️The share of Global South countries and regions in China's exports ($1.67 trillion) has surpassed that of the top industrialized nations ($1.4 trillion)
▪️Global South countries and regions account for nearly half of its total trade volume, or $2.8 trillion
▪️China trades with 150+ economies
▪️China's total goods trade grew 5% year-on-year to $6.1 trillion in 2024,
▪️ASEAN has remained Beijing’s largest trade partner for five consecutive years
China's top 5 partners by total trade volume (2024)
🔻ASEAN – $982 billion
🔻EU – $785.8 billion
🔻US – $688 billion
🔻Latin America – $518 billion
🔻Africa – $295.5 billion
China is steadily reducing reliance on the US market, shifting its focus to Global South consumers.
As Donald Trump doubles tariffs on all Chinese imports from 10% to 20%, Beijing has responded with 15% and 10% tariffs on US agricultural products - impacting $21 billion in exports.
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The Kiel Institute for the World Economy believe that over the past three years, the US has spent $64 billion on military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and $50 billion on other financial injections, while the EU has spent $62 billion and $70 billion, respectively. The US assumed the cost of delivering and repairing equipment, as well as providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with intelligence. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-after-3-years-of-war-aid-flows-remain-low-but-steady-shift-towards-weapons-procurement/ Despite their combined support, Ukraine is losing the war. Only an idiot, and there is no shortage of them in the EU, would believe that without US funding, military aid and intelligence Ukraine stands a chance. The EU can't fill the gap left by the Americans without destroying itself. @LauraRuHK
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I have no portfolio, but why let a tiny little detail like that stand in the way of me heroically claiming my free drinks at this free event? I may learn a thing or two. 😅
@LauraRuHK