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Independent researcher/writer based in Hong Kong since 1997. Reformed academic. My long-form, analytical articles are collected here https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com/ email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
Before the start of an "emergency meeting" in Paris to discuss Europe's role in a potential ceasefire British PM Keir Starmer said he is ready to send troops to Ukraine. The meeting will be attended by Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark along with the presidents of the European Council, European Commission and the secretary general of NATO.▪️Make no mistake, this is no independent initiative. US has long intended to shift the burden of its proxy war onto its vassals. 5 days ago Pentagon's chief Pete Hegseth called on NATO allied countries to take the lead in providing for Ukraine's security as an alternative to granting Ukraine NATO membership. Hegseth said that any security guarantees for Ukraine "must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. They should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission, and they should not be covered under Article 5." ▪️Russia has repeatedly stated that the presence of Western troops in Ukraine, no matter under what pretext, is unacceptable.
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This article has been widely shared and quoted, including by those who believe that EUrope will defy the US and seek a closer relationship with China. One of the Chinese analysts mentioned in the article described the posture of the current US administration as "isolationist", i personally disagree with this assessment. Protectionism doesn't always go hand in hand with isolationism. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202502/1328481.shtml
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On February 15, at the initiative of the American side, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Building on the February 12 telephone conversation between the Presidents of Russia and the United States, the two foreign ministers agreed to maintain an open channel of communication to address longstanding issues in Russian-American relations. Their goal is to remove unilateral barriers inherited from the previous US administration that have hindered mutually beneficial trade, economic and investment cooperation. Both sides expressed a shared commitment to engaging on key international issues, including the situation in Ukraine, developments in Palestine and the broader Middle East, as well as other regional matters.
The conversation also covered ways to swiftly reverse the restrictions on Russian diplomatic missions in the United States, which were introduced by the Obama administration in 2016 and led to reciprocal measures. It was agreed that expert-level meetings will be organised in the near future to coordinate specific steps towards removing these obstacles to the functioning of diplomatic missions in Russia and the United States.
Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio reaffirmed their readiness to restore a respectful and constructive interstate dialogue in line with the approach set by the presidents. They agreed to maintain regular contact, including discussions on preparations for a potential high-level Russian-American summit.
Scholz calls for state of emergency in Germany
Outgoing Chancellor Scholz has urged the Bundestag to declare a state of emergency "in the wake of recent events", including Trump's comments on Ukraine.
This move could allow Germany to bypass debt restrictions and take out more loans.
"The Bundestag must make a decision as soon as possible, according to which the war in Ukraine and its serious consequences for the security of Germany and Europe will be regarded as an emergency situation in accordance with paragraph 2 of Article 115 of the Basic Law of the Federal Republic of Germany. This means that our support for Ukraine, which is now more important than ever, will no longer be carried out at the expense of other tasks that our state must fulfill in relation to its citizens,"
Senior officials from the US, Russia and Ukraine will hold a meeting in Saudi Arabia next week -
"Tomorrow we will meet in Munich, and next week a meeting in Saudi Arabia, not with me or President Putin, but with top officials. And Ukraine will also participate in this," US President Donald Trump said.
On Wednesday, Trump said he looked forward to meeting with his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia, without specifying specific dates.
Shortly before that, on Thursday, he also revealed that high-ranking representatives of Russia, United States and Ukraine will meet at the Munich Security Conference, which will be held from February 14 to 16.
Russia's position on the settlement of the conflict.
In June last year, Putin came up with proposals for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Russia will immediately cease fire and declare its readiness for negotiations if:
▪️Ukraine officially abandons its intentions to join NATO;
▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces withdraws from new Russian regions;
▪️Kiev authorities carry out demilitarization and denazification;
▪️Ukraine adopts a neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-free status.
▪️Vladmir Putin also mentioned the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
Bloomberg :
"It’s hard to believe now, but US, British, French, Polish and Ukrainian troops all marched in Moscow alongside their Russian counterparts on Red Square in 2010 to mark the 65th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Vladimir Putin watched NATO troops join that May 9 military parade alongside the German and Chinese leaders. Dmitry Medvedev, then Russia’s president, spoke of a common desire to defend peace.
Fast forward to 2025 [...] and Putin’s preparing to host the 80th anniversary parade. He has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to join him on Red Square — and Xi agreed.
Will Putin also invite US President Donald Trump? And would Trump go?
The temptation would be strong."
⚛️ Palantir: DOGE’s magic wand or Deep State weapon? Part 2 👉 Part 1
The tech firm faces controversy and human rights abuse accusations over its involvement in the Ukraine conflict and the Gaza war.
🎯 Ukraine: Palantir directs strikes on Russia
🌏 Time reported that Palantir turned Ukraine into an “AI war lab” in June 2022, offering its services for free
🌏 CEO Alex Karp worked with Volodymyr Zelensky to integrate Palantir’s AI into Ukraine’s military strategy to "defeat" Russia
🌏 Palantir’s software gathers intelligence from drones, satellites and ground sources to enhance targeting of Russian positions and increase the lethality of strikes
🌏 In Feb 2023, Karp claimed Palantir was responsible for “most of the targeting” by Ukrainian forces
🌏 The Biden administration asked Palantir to help with battlefield tech for use against Russia
🇵🇸 AI-powered genocide in Gaza
🔶 Israel’s Defense Ministry signed a deal with Palantir in January 2024 to support the war in Gaza
🔶 Karp revealed that Palantir was already active in Israel just weeks after the October 2023 Hamas attack
🔶 The company is linked to Israel’s AI-driven “kill lists,” including Tel Aviv’s Lavender and Gospel projects to bomb Palestinian territories
🔶 Palantir provides AI targeting and surveillance tools to Israeli forces and intelligence agencies in Gaza and West Bank
🔶 Some international institutions and companies, like Norway’s Storebrand Asset Management, divested from Palantir over human rights concerns
👉 Part 1
👍 Boost us | Chat | Stickers |@geopolitics_live
As the UK takes the lead of the Ukraine project, expect more provocations. Nothing is beyond the pale. Terrorism, sabotage, false flags. The usual London playbook. @LauraRuHK
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On 12 February Donald Trump also had a phone call with Zelensky, and they agreed to immediately start work on ending the Ukraine conflict, Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, says.
Today, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, there will be a substantive conversation during which the Ukrainian and US teams "will make plans and future designs to end the war," Yermak added. @LauraRuHK
The UK and US have not signed an international agreement on artificial intelligence (AI) at a global summit in Paris.
The final statement, signed by dozens of countries including France, China and India, pledges an "open", "inclusive" and "ethical" approach to the technology's development.
In a brief statement, the UK government said it had not been able to add its name to it because of concerns about national security and "global governance." As usual, London sided with Washington. US Vice-president JD Vance delivered a keynote speech - this was his first foreign trip since taking office - in which he articulated a typical exceptionalist approach. He claimed that the US is, and intends to remain, the leader in AI, and railed against "excessive regulation" stressing that it would strangle AI potential to accelerate a new industrial revolution. Vance also took a thinly veiled jab at China:
"I would remind our international friends here today that partnering with such regimes, it never pays off in the long term. From CCTV to 5G equipment, we’re all familiar with cheap tech in the marketplace that’s been heavily subsidised and exported by authoritarian regimes. But as I know, and I think some of this – some of us in this room have learned from experience, partnering with them means chaining your nation to an authoritarian master that seeks to infiltrate, dig in, and seize your information infrastructure."
I am pleased to report that a text I published on Feb 1 /channel/LauraRuHK/9660 has inspired quite a few articles in the international press. I will share a little secret. Their authors subscribe to this channel. What can i say. Maybe they shouldn't be so shy. I understand silent appreciation but if they happen to be in Hong Kong they should consider buying me a drink. They get paid, i don't.
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The evolution of US influence - From USAID to USBRIBE Yesterday Donald Trump signed an executive order to loosen restrictions on a law that bans US companies from bribing foreign officials arguing that the law "puts American firms and businesses at a disadvantage to foreign competitors." @LauraRuHK
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Fyodor Lukyanov raises a very important question, one I have been privately debating for the last two years.
For Russia, the rise of a new US foreign policy centered on traditional values and transactionalism poses a challenge. The liberal agenda of previous administrations – focused on promoting democracy, human rights, and progressive values – was something Moscow learned to counter effectively. But the conservative agenda envisioned by Trumpists, with its emphasis on patriotism, traditional family structures, and individual success, could prove more difficult to combat.
Moreover, the potential digitalization of the US influence mechanisms, by streamlining the efficiency of initiatives like USAID, would amplify their reach. Automated platforms and data analytics could target resources more effectively, making American soft power even more potent.
Moscow cannot afford complacency. The outdated propaganda models of the 1990s and early 2000s are ill-suited to the current environment. Instead, Russia must develop competitive cultural narratives and master modern “soft power” tools to counter this evolving threat.
The Trumpists’ vision of reviving the “American Dream” is not just an internal matter for the US – it is a global narrative with the potential to reshape perceptions of America.
Why i am not celebrating the defunding of the fact-checking organizations that police social media. Their demise is simply an evolutionary pivot. Social media platforms and stakeholders such as Western governments have realized that this traditional approach that relied heavily on centralized, self-professed expert gatekeepers is infeasible or even detrimental when accusations of bias and censorship run rampant.
In place of a single, monolithic approach, a patchwork of solutions is taking shape—ranging from user-driven verification and AI moderation to emerging decentralized or blockchain-based frameworks. To contain and cancel narratives that debunk Western propaganda they are increasingly resorting to non-informational responses. They are fighting information operations asymmetrically, outside of information spaces. The harassment, surveillance, intimidation and arrest of independent journalists, the denial of access to Russian media outlets, pressure on TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to sell the platform, the arrest and blackmail of Telegram's Pavel Durov, cancellation of elections in Romania on the bogus pretext of "foreign interference" in the political campaign, etc. point to a very dangerous escalation in the West's asymmetrical response. Last but not least, NATO and the EU are doubling down on their efforts to "fight disinformation" - that gravy train hasn't been stopped. I quote from a recent report published by EEAS (the EU diplomatic service)
"The point I am making is that tangible campaigns sit behind much of the most damaging and visible information we encounter. These campaigns have people, assets, financial infrastructures, budgets and brands that can be targeted by activism and the law, by sanctions, take-down, de-listing, and exposure. When we focus on the operations that manipulate information spaces – the behaviour rather than just the content – a whole range of responses become apparent that do not require us to weaponise information spaces ourselves."
"The explosive growth and availability of AI tools may even hold more benefits for defenders than attackers."
In a blog post published on Saturday evening, the former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis added to speculation about Beijing's role in the war's resolution, writing that "China could win the war against Ukraine without firing a shot".
"If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's,"
"Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security-rebuilding, ports, agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a 'Kissinger', splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China. China as Ukraine's protector would start replacing the US in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank. EU countries in the East would be dependent on China's protection and the racketeering would spread West.
What needs to happen to avoid this all-too-likely disaster? My hope lies with Europe, with the appearance of a leader with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal."
Xinhua, the official state news agency of China, weighs in on the EU's predicament.
"The 61st Munich Security Conference has underscored the complex challenges facing Europe and the urgent need for the continent to define its strategic role in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
From the persistent conflict in Ukraine to rising uncertainties in the transatlantic alliance, as well as mounting pressures on the EU's vision for the international order, the conference focused on the multiple crises Europe faces. It also highlighted the need for the continent to navigate these complexities and assert its place on the world stage.[...] Europe's ability to determine its role and strategic path will be of paramount importance, said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China."
For the first time in a long time, speaking at a press conference, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya added words about the need for mutual understanding with Russia. @LauraRuHK
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Publicly, the UK and EU leaders that signed the Weimar statement are still in the denial stage. But mounting frustration and the realization that denial cannot continue forever is giving way to anger, which is being vented behind closed doors and on the media. There are a few more stages to go through before they fully accept reality. But since they haven't got much leverage for bargaining, and depression is already creeping in, it's either seppuku (unlikely because they have no code of honor) or acceptance. @LauraRuHK
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Meanwhile the Munich-bound plane of US State Secretary Marco Rubio on Friday was forced to turn around and fly back to the airbase due to mechanical issues. Rubio will continue his travel to Germany and the Middle East on a separate aircraft. @LauraRuHK
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Moscow will protect its interests in the Baltic region despite all NATO's attempts to turn the Baltic Sea into its "internal lake," Artyom Studennikov, the director of the First European Department in the Russian Foreign Ministry, tells RIA Novosti.
Commenting on the recent incidents with underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, the diplomat said that they are being carried out to find someone to blame amid the political atmosphere of "caveman Russophobia and hysteria" prevailing in the West. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
POLITICO captures the mood in Brussels.
"It was the moment Europeans and Ukrainians have been dreading for months, if not years.
Yet when it finally came, on a wintry afternoon as Kyiv froze in icy temperatures, the suddenness and scale of Donald Trump’s peace plan still left Ukraine’s allies in shock. The United States has effectively called time on its support for Ukraine."
The new Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth, speaking to defence ministers in Brussels, stressed that the US is no longer “primarily focused” on European security and is shifting its military priorities to deterring China. He called on European Nato members to hike defence budgets to 5% of GDP. ▪️Here are some excerpts from his speech.
We must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.
Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.
A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again.
This must not be Minsk 3.0. The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. Instead any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.
If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. And they should not be covered under Article 5. There also must be robust international oversight of the line of contact.
To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine.
To further enable effective diplomacy and drive down energy prices that fund the Russian war machine, President Trump is unleashing American energy production and encouraging other nations to do the same. Lower energy prices coupled with more effective enforcement of energy sanctions will help bring Russia to the table. Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine. This means: Donating more ammunition and equipment. Leveraging comparative advantages. Expanding your defense industrial base. And importantly, leveling with your citizens about the threat facing Europe.
Part of this is speaking frankly with your people about how this threat can only be met by spending more on defense.
2% is not enough; President Trump has called for 5%, and I agree. We're also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.
The United States faces consequential threats to our homeland. We must – and we are – focusing on security of our own borders.
We also face a peer competitor in the Communist Chinese with the capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail. As the United States prioritizes its attention to these threats, European allies must lead from the front.
Together, we can establish a division of labor that maximizes our comparative advantages in Europe and Pacific respectively. The United States remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe.
But the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.
On 12 February Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation.
According to the official site of the Kremlin
"The leaders discussed issues related to the prisoner exchange between Russia and the United States. The US President assured the President of Russia of the American side's commitment to fulfill all the agreements reached.
The leaders also discussed a possible Ukraine settlement. Donald Trump spoke in favour of stopping the hostilities as soon as possible and solving the crisis peacefully. In turn, Vladimir Putin pointed out it was necessary to eliminate the root causes of the conflict and agreed with Donald Trump in that a sustainable settlement could only be reached via peaceful negotiations.
Additionally, the President of Russia expressed support for one of the US President's key arguments, which was that it was time for both countries to work together.
The issues of Middle East settlement, Iran's nuclear programme, and bilateral economic relations between Russia and the United States were also brought up during the conversation.
The President of Russia invited the US President to visit Moscow and expressed willingness to receive visiting officials from the United States to discuss topics of mutual interest, including a possible Ukraine settlement.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agreed to maintain personal contact in the future, involving in particular in-person meetings."
The Global Majority pins its hopes on a multipolar world order. The Collective West calls this historical process Multipolarization stressing its conflictual character. @LauraRuHK https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2025/
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Kit Klarenberg writes
Huge news here. Romania's President Klaus Iohannis has resigned, a day before he faced an impeachment vote sparked by the shocking, autocratic cancellation of the country's presidential election last year, to deny anti-war, anti-establishment Călin Georgescu victory.
As I wrote at the time, it was clear Romanian officials who executed and endorsed that coup well-aware it was a blunt-force, short-term solution to a panoply of deeply complex socioeconomic and political problems locally, with huge potential for blowback. Even Romanians supportive of the EU and NATO were appalled by the move.
In response, hundreds of thousands of Romanians have ever since taken to the streets to voice their anger at their country’s Western-bought political elite. Having compelled their elected representatives to initiate impeachment proceedings against Iohannis, he jumped before he was pushed. There’s similarly pent up anger across Central and Eastern Europe. Things could get very interesting, very soon.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping exchanged invitations:
🔸Xi is expected in Moscow for the Victory Day Parade on May 9
🔸Putin is invited to China for events to honor the victory over Japan on September 3
📌Subscribe to @SputnikInt
Britain is taking over leadership of Ukraine defence
The next Ramstein session will take place on 12 February, with London rather than Washington, taking over control of the Ukraine project that it actively contributed to spearhead. Britain's long-held ambition to shape Europe's military policy, and profit from it, is now in full view. Let's not forget that in 2017 the UK Foreign Office headed by Boris Johnson organized and hosted the first Ukraine Reform Conference in London. Johnson was seeking political and financial support for Ukraine’s 2020 Reform Plan, a neoliberal roadmap designed to create a more profitable environment for Western corporate interests while priming the Ukrainian population and army for war. https://medium.com/p/7d41818139a9
And again it was Johnson who went to Kiev to pressure Zelensky to cut off peace negotiations with Russia when the two sides appeared to have made some tenuous progress in 2022 during talks in Istanbul.
The Ramstein Group, which comprises over 50 allies, was established by the US in April 2022 at its Air Force base in Germany to coordinate military aid to Ukraine. Given Britain's limited power and economic decline, London sees this leadership role as a juicy opportunity to become one of the key players in the new system of international relations, fill a power vacuum in Europe, continue to profit from the conflict and keep fanning the flames of war at a time when the new Trump administration publicly declares its intention to end it. Mind you, the idea of outsourcing the war to European vassals has been aired multiple times and predates the presidency of Donald Trump - as long as weapons contracts keep rolling in, US soldiers don't return in body bags, and US corporate investments are defended by European submissives, what's not to like? @LauraRuHK
🇺🇸🇯🇵 Following Nazinyahu, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba became the second foreign leader to meet with Donald Trump since he moved back to the White House on Jan. 20. Which speaks volumes about Washington priorities. ▪️Under the threat of tariffs, Japan was asked to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit, buy more liquified gas from the US, spend more on defense, buy more US weapons, invest more in US companies instead of buying them (Nippon Steel would no longer buy U.S. Steel as planned, but instead invest in it), be the US guard dog in the Asia-Pacific by playing a more active role in both the QUAD and SQUAD grouping, and keep kowtowing to the white master. @LauraRuHK
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