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Independent researcher/writer based in Hong Kong since 1997. Reformed academic. My long-form, analytical articles are collected here https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com/ email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
US intelligence believes that the crisis in Ukraine has accelerated the rapprochement between Iran, China, North Korea and Russia, and the expansion of cooperation between these countries has become an irreversible process — the report of the office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States on the existing threats to the country.
"Since 2022, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have become even closer. Eliminating the accelerating factor of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to return these bilateral relations to their pre-war initial state in 2021." (Source: TASS) @LauraRuHK https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/23498819
The Kremlin has released a comprehensive list of energy facilities subject to a temporary US-brokered truce between Russia and Ukraine for a period of 30 days starting from 18 March 2025, with the possibility of extending and withdrawing from the agreement in case of non-compliance by one of the parties.
▪️The types of facilities covered under the truce include oil and gas processing and storage facilities, including pumping stations and pipelines, electricity producing and distribution sites, nuclear power plants, and the dams of hydroelectric plants. ▪️Moscow and Washington agreed to ensure the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative; It implies ensuring the safety of navigation and preventing the use of commercial ships for military purposes:
▪️"The United States will help restore access for Russian exports of agricultural products and fertilizers to the world market, reduce the cost of shipping insurance, and expand access to ports and payment systems for such transactions."
▪️The agreements on the Black Sea Initiative will come into force after the lifting of sanctions against Russian producers and exporters, including fish products and fertilizers; after the lifting of restrictions on the work of insurance companies with food cargoes; after lifting sanctions against the Russian Agriculture Bank and other financial organizations involved in ensuring operations for international trade in food and fertilizers, their connection to SWIFT, the opening of the necessary correspondent accounts; lifting restrictions on Russian-flagged vessels involved in food trade; lifting restrictions on the supply of agricultural machinery and other goods involved in food production. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK https://ria.ru/20250325/vstrecha-2007281585.html
Jeffrey Goldberg,The Atlantic editor-in-chief and notorious war cheerleader, was "accidentally" added to a Signal group chat with the Trump administration.▪️Vice President JD Vance also wrote:
“We are making a mistake” in bombing the Houthis since Europe relies on Red Sea trade more than the U.S. does.
“There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices,” he said. “I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.”
“3 percent of US trade runs through the [Suez Canal]. 40 percent of European trade does,” he said. “There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary.” ▪️The National Security Council’s calling the chat “authentic” but is scrambling to figure out how Goldberg’s number got in there. Something to do with his allegiance to Israel? Draw your own conclusions. @LauraRuHK
Recently declassified documents have revealed a Cold War-era plot by the CIA that sought to sabotage Cuban sugar destined for the Soviet Union. In 1962, CIA agents contaminated hundreds of bags of sugar. The objective was to undermine Cuban-Soviet relations and sow discord between Cuban and Russian authorities.
The operation was halted by President John F. Kennedy who ordered the ship to return its cargo. This covert operation highlights the lengths to which US intelligence went during its campaigns against Cuba and its allies. The CIA's confession had remained redacted until March 2025, revealing a chapter in the complex history of Cold War espionage and diplomatic tensions. (Source: Washington Post) @LauraRuHK
Trump's psychotype and the risks for Russia. Ahead of the next round of talks in Riyadh
Elena Panina writes "When discussing Trump's strategies, two hypotheses are usually put forward: weakening the EU as a global competitor to the US and achieving peace in Ukraine as a way to shift focus to more important goals. That said, two main patterns of behaviour emerge from Trump's psychological profile: the first is economic and the second is political. By politics, Trump solves economics. After all, he came into politics from business, which means that he has a dominant business approach to everything he does in politics. Power for money and money for power. It's a vicious cycle where it all depends on where you cut into it: either when Trump is struggling for resources, or when he's struggling for power. From these patterns, Trump is building his priorities.
The problem, however, is that Trump is not firm in these priorities. They are mixed up and change places from time to time, and for him it happens spontaneously and looks like reflexion. If Trump fails to consolidate power and influence, he turns to fighting for profits. Even if it weakens his power resource.
▪️ The example of Ukraine shows this quite vividly. Since his meeting with Zelensky in the Oval Office, Trump has been challenged in a truly existential way. The alliance of the US Democratic Party and the European establishment, which planned Zelensky's prank, has shown for the first time to the whole world that there are limits to the power of the American president in his relations with his vassals. Instead of quelling the riot, Trump engaged in diplomatic games with the rioters. The rebellious provinces challenged Caesar, but he responded not as a metropolis, but as a colony, only bigger and richer. This is a dispute of ‘who is stronger’, not ‘who is in charge’, because the strongest does not mean the most important.
At the same time, Trump is rushing to make a resource deal with Ukraine by all means, suffering humiliation. This is just sacrificing power for money. This is how a merchant thinks, for whom power is not an end in itself, sacred and unconditional, but a bargaining chip that can be sacrificed at some point for the sake of close profit.
From the same series - Trump's decision to prepare an authorisation to start selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, which the latter was not given as punishment for its willfulness - the purchase of Russian S-400 air defence systems. In this way Erdogan showed the whole world that it is possible to disobey America and wait for its anger - it will swallow the disrespect and come back with its own deals, because for it money issues are more important than prestige issues.
▪️ Within this same logic lies Trump's relationship with Europe. It was easy to foresee that Europe would show insubordination and sabotage the entire spectrum of relations with the US: from the tariff war to the truce with Russia. And if power issues were as important to Trump as they are to his opponents - the deep state in the US, British elites and the French and Germans - he would have to start by defeating his enemies, or at least accompany his talks with Putin with that defeat. After all, their sabotage leads to the disruption of the ceasefire in Ukraine, which is vital to Trump. Yet Trump shies away from flogging the rioters, thus encouraging further conspiracies, and throws himself into short-term money deals. Not realising that you can win tactically and lose strategically by substituting the benefit of power for the benefit of money. And that, for Trump, could be fatal. (1/2)
Erdoğan’s government has launched a significant crackdown on the opposition, most notably with the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul and Erdoğan’s biggest rival. This move is widely perceived as politically motivated, aimed at neutralizing a major threat ahead of future elections.
The timing of İmamoğlu's arrest suggests confidence in minimal international backlash. The EU and the US cannot afford to antagonize Erdoğan. Turkey’s strategic importance, particularly in the context of NATO, seems to be tempering their criticism of Erdoğan’s moves. That's why the "democracy, rule of law and human rights" rhetoric has been toned down to the point of being nearly muted.
A recent article published by the RAND Corporation explains what lies behind this shift.
"Turkey offers military mass, a robust defence industry, and diplomatic reach beyond Europe. [...] Turkey's defence industry has grown significantly, benefitting from decades of investment and technology transfer. [...] Beyond its military contributions, Turkey's diplomatic, cultural, and economic ties extend into Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Unlike its European NATO counterparts, Ankara can engage with regimes that Brussels and Washington may prefer to avoid. Whether securing access to critical minerals, negotiating energy deals, or counterbalancing Russian and Chinese influence, Turkey can serve as NATO's bridge to regions where Western credibility is limited.
Deepening NATO's partnership with Turkey requires a shift in mindset. European leaders must abandon the illusion that Turkey will ever be the Westernised, values-driven ally they wish it to be. Instead, they must engage with the Turkey that exists today. A more transactional relationship, where shared interests take precedence over ideological alignment, is the most realistic approach. With NATO's second-largest army, Turkey brings sheer numbers to the alliance, an invaluable factor when defending long frontiers or maintaining a forward presence. Turkey is not an ideal ally, but in today's geopolitical climate, ideal allies are a luxury NATO cannot afford. [...] Turkey remains a critical player in countering Russian aggression, stabilising Syria, and extending NATO's global reach."
The Panama Ports Affair: Sovereignty, Compliance, and Geopolitical Chess
Calvin Ho writes: To ascertain whether an international transaction violates cardinal principles of national interest, two questions of paramount importance emerge:
1. Was regulatory due process observed under applicable laws?
2. Did the transaction compromise the nation’s strategic foundations?
The recent defense of Sir Li Ka-shing’s Panama ports divestiture conspicuously sidesteps these existential inquiries, opting instead for rhetorical deflection “Why hasn’t China intervened? Was Li unwilling to sell to Chinese entities?”. Yet a cursory examination of the Panama transaction reveals systemic irregularities that demand scrutiny.
I. Regulatory Noncompliance
Under Hong Kong’s Companies Ordinance (Cap. 622), cross-border mega-asset transactions require mandatory filings with the Central Government Liaison Office’s Economic Department—a protocol Li scrupulously honored during past deals (UK Power Grid acquisition, Shanghai Century Link Mall disposal). This transaction, however, constitutes an egregious oversight.
The timeline alone betrays procedural malpractice:
5 March 2025: Trump’s Congressional address demanding “Panama Canal’s return to American hands”
7 March: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s clandestine Hong Kong visit
11 March: Hutchison Whampoa’s announcement of port sales
A six-day “transaction sprint” precluded even basic asset valuation reports, let alone lawful disclosures.
II. Strategic Undervaluation & Geopolitical Subtext
The sale of Balboa and Cristóbal ports—critical chokepoints handling 21% of China’s transoceanic shipping—for $18 billion defies commercial logic, particularly given:
COSCO’s 2023 offer of $35 billion for Balboa alone
$5 billion infrastructure upgrades by Chinese engineers (automated systems, BeiDou navigation integration) that quintupled throughput capacity
The inclusion of Lockheed Martin subsidiaries (recipients of $12 billion Pentagon missile contracts) in BlackRock’s financing consortium, coupled with simultaneous U.S. Navy expansions near Canal locks, transforms this from mere commerce to military-capital collusion—a playbook reminiscent of 2016 South China Sea arbitration-era market manipulations.
III. The Golden Share Paradox
China’s 2022 Foreign Investment Law amendments introduced Article 35: “Golden Share” structures permitting state veto power with 1% equity. Had Li harbored even nominal allegiance, retaining 49% ownership while ceding 1% to Chinese entities would have preserved control while safeguarding sovereignty. Instead, the 100% divestiture—down to scrubbing crane logos—constitutes a scorched-earth severance exceeding even HSBC’s Huawei data surrender.
IV. Historical Ironies & Legal Traps
The transaction’s Byzantine safeguards—$9.8 billion penalty clauses, force majeure liability shifts, triple-layered escrow accounts (NY Fed vaults, New York Convention arbitration locks)—mirror Chiang Kai-shek-era capital flight mechanisms. As Soong May-ling once quipped: “Gold in foreign vaults becomes fairy gold—no mortal may reclaim it.”
Li’s refusal to invoke China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law (Article 13: coercion-based contract annulments) speaks volumes. To claim duress would shatter his carefully curated “apolitical merchant” façade—a persona maintained since 1989 refusals of port equity swaps to 2015 mainland property retreats.
V. The Unspoken Truth
Western “contract sanctity” remains enforceable only within cannon-shot range:
2003: Thatcher’s guarantees for Felixstowe port acquisition
2015: UK’s National Security Act seizure of Li’s $12 billion grid assets
Li, the stateless plutocrat, understands this calculus. His choice of a gilded plate (BlackRock’s bid) over a patriotic platter (COSCO’s offer) epitomizes the zeitgeist lamented by Zheng Guanying: “Ten thousand merchants cannot rival a single comprador.” (1/2)
Vladimir Putin personally appointed Grigory Karasin and Sergei Beseda as negotiators for upcoming consultations with the United States, said the press secretary of the Russian leader, Dmitry Peskov.
Peskov said that Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Sergei Beseda, Adviser to the Director of the FSB, are the most experienced negotiators.
According to the press secretary, "this is the choice of the President of the Russian Federation, and they will best represent Russia in these negotiations." (Source: TASS)
@LauraRuHK
Did Jake Sullivan write Trump's ‘partial ceasefire’ plan?
Elena Panina writes: As it turns out, the points of Trump's ‘peace plan’ for a partial ceasefire, including stopping strikes on energy infrastructure and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, largely coincide with... Zelensky's infamous three-point formula. A surprising revelation of the last few days.
▪️ ‘Formula’ of three points appeared after the reduction of ‘Zelensky's formula’ of ten points and was presented (/channel/EvPanina/14081) for discussion at the anti-Russian ‘peace conference’ in Bürgenstock (Switzerland) on 15-16 June 2024. It was then that Zelensky's appetites were curtailed to maximise the involvement of the Global South in the event. Let us quote these points in full:
1. Nuclear energy facilities must be safe and any threat of nuclear weapons use is unacceptable. Nuclear facilities, including the Zaporozhye power plant, must operate under Ukrainian control and in accordance with IAEA principles.
2. Food security must not be turned into a weapon and is guaranteed by free navigation in the Black and Azov Seas. Ukraine should have access to marketing of its agricultural products through third parties.
3. All prisoners of war must be released, including all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children and civilians who must be returned to Ukraine.
In fact, we see the same issues - tweaked and without some conspicuous details like mentioning children or the Sea of Azov - in reports (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/03/statement-from-secretary-rubio-and-nsc-waltz-on-call-with-zelenskyy/) about Trump's new peace initiative, as well as in speeches by the US president himself and members of his team.
▪️ It is obvious that the cutting of the ‘Zelensky formula’ from ten points to three last year was under the direct control of Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan. It was he who supervised all ‘peace conferences’ on Ukraine from Washington. And now Sullivan's ‘ugly brainchild’ has found a second life.....
Thus, at this stage of the negotiation process, there is little difference between Trump's stated goals and the intentions of the former US leadership on Ukraine. So far, it looks like the Biden administration was ready to divide Ukraine among ‘its own’ - the US, Britain and the EU. But Trump decided to take it all for himself (/channel/EvPanina/16096), clashing with Euroglobalists in a typical imperialist confrontation (/channel/EvPanina/15978). At the same time, unlike the globalists, he is not ready to raise the risks of a direct military clash with Russia and is trying to secure for the US the remaining territory of Ukraine through a peace agreement.
@LauraRuHK
/channel/EvPanina/16099
Recently, I had a conversation with a long-time subscriber to this channel, someone who’s been following my work for years—at least since the 2019 attempted color revolution in Hong Kong. At some point he asked me why, back in those days, I didn't mind giving soundbites to media outlets. Good question. The fact is that i never intended to. Actually i had never agreed to turn an hour-long video interview into short, catchy snippets that made me sound like a slogan machine. The experience was horrific. I wanted to forget about it, but it wasn't possible because those soundbites, loaded with emotional punch, had taken on a life of their own and gone viral. Those who shared them had good intentions, but i resented the fact that complexity and nuance had been sacrificed for the sake of narrative promotion. An influencer would have welcomed the attention, and cashed on it, but i am not. I am a writer and those who share memes, slogans and soundbites very seldom dig deeper—if they bother. Complexity was left on the cutting room floor, my long articles didn't find new readers, I received more threats from the usual suspects and spent months declining interviews.
/channel/LauraRuHK/9836
🔺In Serbia, Prime Minister Miloš Vučević has stepped down, triggering a 30-day countdown to form a new government—failure to do so will lead to early elections.
▪️But when it comes to threats to regional security in the Balkans, another, even more significant, development is the new defense cooperation agreement signed by Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo, aimed at boosting their armed forces’ interoperability and strategic coordination, developing the defense industry and technological advancements among the three nations. They’ve even extended an invitation to Bulgaria to join. The purpose is to strengthen Euro-Atlantic structures in the region. Serbia has raised objections, formally demanding clarification on the agreement’s “nature and purpose.”
This pact could seriously undermine stability across the region. @LauraRuHK
▪️Hong Kong leader John Lee on Tuesday said criticism of city conglomerate CK Hutchison's sale of its Panama Canal ports deserved "serious attention", after Beijing authorities repeatedly slammed the deal.
The business empire of Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing, sold most of its port operations - including those in the canal - to a United States-led consortium. ▪️Hong Kong ex-leader CY Leung added to the chorus of criticism, saying "some Hong Kong businesspeople mistakenly believe that 'businesspeople have no homeland'".
"American businesspeople can and will do only things aligned with US interests ... the same applies to China," Leung wrote on Facebook on Monday. ▪️The deal could give BlackRock control of 10.4% of global container throughput, making it the world's third largest port operator, Chinese state media reported, which could result in higher port and logistics costs for Chinese entities and pose a risk to Chinese supply chains.
@LauraRuHK
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure facilities "the first step towards a just and lasting peace for Ukraine." He continued "The next step should be a complete ceasefire — and as soon as possible." ▪️Germany's defense minister Boris Pistorius dismissed the call between Trump and Putin, calling it a "flop” and adding that "Putin is playing a game." ▪️Why are members of the outgoing government expressing opposite views? Simple. Scholz's political career is over and he is free to speak his mind, Pistorius on the other hand wants to keep a seat at the table and play a role in Merz’s government. @LauraRuHK
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Israel knowingly violated the cease-fire agreement with Hamas – with American approval - and massacred hundreds of civilians to save Netanyahu's ass. There is no bottom to the depths of evil in the genocidal entity. @LauraRuHK
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The Israeli occupation forces launched intense airstrikes across the Gaza Strip. The attacks began in the early hours of Tuesday morning when the genocidal entity targeted residential areas, refugee camps, and public infrastructure.
The White House acknowledged that the Israeli occupation had consulted with the US before launching the strikes that killed over 230 Palestinians, most of them children, and wounded hundreds more.
Rescue teams in Gaza are struggling to respond to distress calls due to severe shortages of equipment and operational vehicles, leaving many wounded without medical aid.
Al Mayadeen's correspondent in Gaza reported that dozens of simultaneous Israeli airstrikes struck various locations in Gaza within a span of fewer than ten minutes. Reports indicate that Israeli missiles hit homes, mosques, schools, and displacement shelters, particularly in Khan Younis and Rafah.
Fires broke out in refugee tents west of Khan Younis, leaving many civilians trapped under debris. @LauraRuHK
Responding to a media question on whether China will stop purchasing oil from Venezuela after Donald Trump on Monday issued an executive order declaring that any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25 percent tariff on trade with the US, China's foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Tuesday that China firmly opposes the US' long-term abuse of illegal unilateral sanctions and so-called long-arm jurisdiction, which grossly interferes in other nations' internal affairs.
Guo urged the US to cease meddling in Venezuela's domestic affairs, revoke its illegal unilateral sanctions against Venezuela, and take more actions conducive to peace, stability, and development in Venezuela and other countries.
(Source: Global Times) @LauraRuHK
More on the Signal chat saga and waltzing neocons. The best solution would be firing Mike Waltz, now serving as National Security Adviser, a role which is clearly incompatible with such blatant security breach. Waltz claimed he didn’t know Goldberg personally, despite Goldberg saying he does. Whether they met in person or not is irrelevant. The editor-in-chief of The Atlantic insists that Waltz reached out to him two days before adding him to the Signal group.
Unfortunately dismissing Waltz is not easy. In the Trump administration, he represents the neocon wing relative to isolationists like J.D. Vance. Waltz pulls toward interventionism (China, Middle East) while navigating Trump’s deal-making instincts (Russia, Ukraine). Neocon ideas persist, but they are currently subordinated to transactional goals.
Waltz’s background as a neocon and zionist are well-documented. He worked as a defense policy director at the Pentagon under Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates. Then served as a counterterrorism advisor to Dick Cheney.
He has consistently framed China as a top strategic threat. His call for a boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, aligns with this hawkish outlook. AIPAC’s contributions to Waltz totaled over $70,000 in the 2022-24 cycle, making it his top donor, which underscores his alignment with pro-Israel interests.
During his congressional tenure, he backed legislation to increase U.S. military aid to Israel. Neocons might be on a leash for the time being, but they haven’t vanished. The military-industrial complex ($900 billion Pentagon budget in 2025) still hums. If the Neocon grip is looser is purely due to Trump’s base, unsustainable debt, the need to streamline government departments, including DoD, and global realities (multipolarity) capping their ambitions.
@LauraRuHK
Fake news brought to you by Welt am Sonntag and widely shared by people who should know better. The Chinese foreign ministry firmly denied that Beijing could join a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine spearheaded by EU leaders.
“I would like to emphasize that the reports in question are completely untrue, and China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is consistent and clear,”
(2/2) It's unclear what is more important to Trump right now. To shift the war in Ukraine to Europe and walk away, seizing some assets but scrapping the peace strategy as a resource for further action - which would be a show of weakness. Or to start acting against Europe, seeking the submission of vassals and showing strength. Trump is trying to sit on two chairs at the same time - and that makes any agreements between Russia and him shaky. While winning in one place, Trump is losing in another. This is bound to have consequences: there is a high risk that none of Trump's goals will be achieved. And Russia cannot ignore this probability."
/channel/EvPanina/16121
🌍This piece looks at the new strategies of member nations, how they can work together, and how they are changing economic relationships as the balance of global power changes. A great job as always by Prof @Warwick Powell! https://substack.com/home/post/p-158160300
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(2/2) The wheel of karma grinds slowly but inexorably. When the bill for transactional myopia comes due—as it did for the Kuomintang’s exiled gold reserves—even a Canadian passport cannot shield one from becoming the entrée at the Pentagon’s banquet.
This is no mere corporate exit. It is geopolitical betrayal, lacquered in legal formaldehyde—a case study of how “neutral” capital, unmoored from national allegiance, becomes the advance guard of neo-colonial encroachment. @LauraRuHK
Ukrainian forces have attacked a key gas pipeline in western Russia that was previously used to deliver gas to the EU.
They damaged the Sudzha gas metering station in the Kursk Region, part of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline, which for decades had delivered gas from Russia to the EU. The flow did not stop even after the Ukrainians captured the station during their incursion last year. Kiev, however, has refused to renew the contract with Russian operator Gazprom and stopped the transit last January. Marat Bashirov argues (/channel/politjoystic/44477 ), that the Ukrainian strike is due, among other things, to the fact that some EU elites seriously fear an energy alliance between the United States and Russia. If such an alliance arises, it will control all hydrocarbon supplies to Europe, and thus regulate prices. The metering station in Sudzha can be repaired, but the risk of further attacks and acts of sabotage against Russian pipelines remains high. @LauraRuHK
EU leaders shuffled out of their Thursday powwow, the whole thing collapsed into a glorious mess. Not dead, mind you—just limping along, downgraded from "epic rescue" to "eh, we tried." Turns out, Kaja Kallas forgot the tiny detail of getting everyone on board. If you want to derail the EU, pick a Russophobe from an artificial micro-country in the Baltics as "top diplomat". Instead of diplomacy you will get righteous indignation, NATO cheerleading, and a sprinkle of "the Russians are coming" paranoia. What could go wrong? 😅
"Kaja Kallas had high hopes of being able to mobilize as much as €40 billion of military aid to shore up Ukraine's position on the battlefield and strengthen its hand in upcoming talks with Russia.
But as EU leaders wound up their gathering in Brussels on Thursday, the plan lay in tatters — not quite dead, but dramatically downgraded from its original ambition.
The problems started, several EU diplomats said, from the plan's inception when the former Estonian prime minister failed to win prior buy-in from crucial stakeholders. The process had been 'botched up,' one of the diplomats summarized. Unfortunately for Kallas her plan didn't survive impact with the reality of a European Union where interest in making sacrifices for Kyiv varies dramatically from country to country."
Hong Kong will expand the use of mainland Chinese bonds as collateral to obtain yuan liquidity, furthering efforts to enhance the currency's internationalisation and the city's role as an offshore yuan hub.
CMU OmniClear, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Exchange Fund managed by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would allow the two entities to enhance cooperation in many areas.
The MOU would lead to the realisation of "cross-asset class efficiencies across equities and fixed income, expanding the use of mainland bonds as collateral [and] enhancing Hong Kong's [role] as a bond issuance centre and [for] developing an international central securities depository in Asia" https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3301047/hong-kong-boosts-yuan-hub-status-expanding-mainland-china-bond-collateral-initiative ▪️This development has potential implications for Euroclear, the Belgium-based international central securities depository (ICSD). Euroclear’s involvement isn’t explicitly mentioned, but its existing ties to Hong Kong’s financial infrastructure and its role in global bond markets suggest several ways it could be affected. ▪️The development of an Asian ICSD could position Hong Kong as a competitor to Euroclear and challenge its dominance long-term. Right now, Euroclear (and its rival Clearstream) dominates the ICSD space globally, handling massive volumes of bond settlements. If CMU OmniClear and HKEX succeed in building a robust Asian ICSD, it might siphon some of that business, especially for yuan-based transactions. ▪️On the other hand, Euroclear might see increased volume in its clearing and settlement services if global investors use its platform to access these bonds. Euroclear could continue to be a bridge between Asian and Western markets, potentially boosting its business in yuan-denominated assets.
In short, this scenario could mean more opportunities for Euroclear to handle yuan bond settlements and collateral services, especially if it leans into the CMU partnership. It all depends on how Euroclear plays its cards in this yuan-driven shift. 🙏 Many thanks to O.H., a subscriber based in Hong Kong, who drew my attention to this MOU between CMU OmniClear and HKEX after realizing that it had been underreported despite its potentially far-reaching consequences. @LauraRuHK
Straight out of the "Art of the Deal: Colonial Edition." On March 19, 2025, Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone about Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including its nuclear power plants.
Trump pitched the brilliant idea of the US swooping in to own Ukraine’s power plants. Because, obviously, nothing screams "security" like slapping an American flag on some nuclear reactors. Who’s cashing in when American corporations take the keys? Spoiler: not the Ukrainians. Trump’s acting like he’s doing them a favor, while Zelensky nods along to keep the gravy train rolling. Peace? Sure, if you mean piece...of the profits. @LauraRuHK
Reuters asked some legal experts which levers Beijing and Hong Kong could deploy against CK Hutchison. /channel/LauraRuHK/9856 The State Administrative Market Regulation Authority could have extra-territorial jurisdiction by applying the anti-monopoly law, if a deal outside mainland China has the effect of eliminating or restricting competition in China's domestic market. Authorities could also use the Measures for Security Review or Foreign Investments, implemented in 2021, to examine foreign direct investments in important fields relating to national security, including infrastructure.
Felix Ng, a partner at law firm Haldanes, said the measures removed the exclusion of acquisitions of interest held by foreign companies, "suggesting that PRC authorities may have the power to review foreign-to-foreign transactions if the target involves PRC-related entities".
While CK Hutchison is registered offshore, it has businesses and a presence in China and Beijing may be able to use this as justification for weighing in, Ng said. ▪️Lawyers said Hong Kong lacked regulations requiring government screening of sales of strategic assets.
That left the government with few options beyond the broad instrument of the 2020 National Security Law to probe foreign deals involving local firms.
The law punishes terrorism, collusion with foreign forces, subversion and secession.
"Given the sensitivities, there would be room for further investigation under the broad sweep of the National Security Law, particularly over collusion or espionage," said Simon Young, a professor at the University of Hong Kong law school.
The offence of collusion would have to involve a person or company intending to disrupt the policies of the Chinese or Hong Kong governments to create serious consequences, Young said. @LauraRuHK https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/explainer-what-levers-do-china-and-hong-kong-have-over-ck-hutchisons-port-deal/ar-AA1Be3mQ?ocid=BingNewsSerp
The Russian military is completing the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk border region, President Vladimir Putin said at an expanded meeting of the board of the Prosecutor General's Office.
"Our troops have recently conducted a number of swift, rather bold, effective operations and are completing the defeat of enemy troops in the Kursk region," he said.
The Russian president recalled that all Ukrainian servicemen and foreign mercenaries who invaded the Russian territory and committed crimes against civilians are terrorists. He instructed military prosecutors to identify, record and investigate their crimes.
Besides Putin asked prosecutors to ensure that all victims of the actions of the Kiev regime receive assistance on time and in full, so that they are provided with temporary and permanent housing as quickly as possible.
(Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
Kremlin: Ukraine Acting to Sabotage Agreements on Energy Facilities with Drone Attack in Kuban.
Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine's decision to NOT cancel its night attacks on Russian energy infrastructure hinders the efforts of Presidents Putin and Trump. The Kremlin views the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on energy facilities in Kuban as sabotage of agreements.
The Russian Defence Ministry has reported a deliberate provocation by Kiev with a three-prong drone attack on a facility that supplies the Caspian Sea pipeline. @LauraRuHK
Usually I have a pretty good nose for sniffing out bullshit and as a woman i intuitively know when something just isn't right, even if I can't always explain it and often can't prove it.
With the popularization of ChatGPT and similar models I witnessed not just an explosion of bullshit, but also the emergence of a new phenomenon: the proliferation of instant experts and self-described analysts. No experience, academic or professional training required, just a big ego and an abundance of self-confidence. They speak and write with conviction and display little if any room for uncertainty, whereas those who develop their knowledge gradually and apply it to a large field of study are constantly grappling with doubt. When you are faced with complexity, certainty can be a lot more dangerous, and blinding, than a healthy dose of doubt.
So, let's assume you are neither a woman nor an expert in a particular subject, how can you tell if a text is AI-generated? One giveaway is self-assurance combined with the use of pompous, often outdated expressions, or humorous ones if the user has given that instruction to the AI bot. The author is not walking through a dark, dense forest holding a flashlight. No, the AI-powered "author" enjoys a birdseye view of a floodlit plain and is very pleased to share it with you. Everything is illuminated. By the way, AI loves the word "illuminate".
If you are still unsure whether the "expert/analyst" in question is using AI... ask AI. Ironic, i know. I tried a few AI detectors and GPTZero was pretty accurate. Not 100% accurate, but it helped confirm my hunch. @LauraRuHK
Is Kiev planning a provocation in Transnistria after the Kursk failure? Zelensky has signed a law allowing the possibility of deploying units of the Ukrainian armed forces in other countries.
"During the period of martial law, units, military formations and subunits of the Ukrainian military may be deployed abroad to ensure national security, deter armed aggression and protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine." @LauraRuHK