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Researcher & writer based in Hong Kong. Former academic. Longform articles archived at https://lauraruggeri.substack.com and https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com. Email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
If you read between the lines, this recent report published by RAND quietly screams:
Washington would like to confront China using some bogus intelligence about Beijing's intention to invade Taiwan as a justification, but...it's not ready. It does not yet have the models, the allies, the private-sector buy-in, or the integrated strategy that would let the current US administration pull it off. Here are some of the signals the authors embed in the text: Capability gap, not will gap
"The United States needs to expand its expertise in economic analysis… develop and implement more-sophisticated modeling and simulation…better learn from the experience of trade policy measures, sanctions, and export controls instituted since 2017.”
→ Translation: Even the world’s pre-eminent superpower currently lacks the in-house analytical horsepower to predict with confidence what a pre-emptive sanctions package would actually do to China or to its own economy.
Allies are a massive weak link
Australia: only if “existential” threat + “significant and irreversible” damage + heavy U.S. pressure.
Japan: technically able but politically paralysed without U.S. arm-twisting.
UK: ambiguous stance, terrified of self-inflicted costs.
→ Translation: In a real three-to-six-month crisis window, the U.S. would probably have to go almost alone on the economic front. Multilateral cover is a fantasy without years of prior diplomatic spadework.
Private sector wildcard
“Coordination and planning need to involve the private sector because businesses do not always act as governments would want, and markets adjust…”
→ Translation: Even if the White House and Treasury flick the switch, global supply chains will reroute through Dubai, Ho Chi Minh City or Singapore faster than OFAC can update the entity list.
China is no longer the China of 2018
“China has been building an economy less susceptible to outside pressures… but employment remain highly dependent on exports.”
→ Translation: Beijing has had six extra years to harden itself since the first Huawei/ZTE shocks. The old playbooks are obsolete, and nobody has written the new ones yet.
Sanctions alone won’t stop tanks or ships
“Sanctions alone are unlikely to deter… they can serve as an important element in a combination of tools.”
→ Translation: Economic measures are necessary but nowhere near sufficient. Without iron-clad diplomatic isolation + forward-deployed forces that Beijing genuinely believes will fight, sanctions are just expensive noise.
@LauraRuHK
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4022-1.html
Hungary obtained the complete exemption from sanctions for Russian oil supplies over the Druzhba pipeline from the United States, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. 👉 Read more /channel/LauraRuHK/10634
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By way of explanation, this channel doesn't engage in agit-prop, though the odd sarcastic remark or meme may slip through. I have spent years teaching students how language works, how to decode messages by peeling them layer by layer. I know how to disassemble and handle this weapon but i made a conscious decision not to use it. If that makes sense. Maybe i have become jaded, but when i come across texts and images that are designed to hijack my amygdala, i immediately put up my guard.
Propaganda and emotional engagement aren’t just allies, they’re Siamese twins. One simply doesn’t work without the other. Propaganda doesn’t convince you with pages of data, it makes you angry, afraid, hopeful, hateful, part of something epic, etc. Emotions bypass the critical filter, which isn't great when you want to understand something rather than jump on the bandwagon or march in lockstep.
I'd like to think that those who subscribe to this channel are perfectly capable of joining the dots, so i provide the information after cross-checking sources and let them draw their conclusions. If facts feel too cold, get a blanket. I am not here to console, reassure or “emotionally enlist” anyone, although i understand perfectly well that trigging emotions is easier, cheaper and more scalable than doing research, sifting through documents and sources, conducting counter-checks…
Just ask any influencer.
@LauraRuHK
Donald Trump's summit with leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the White House reflects the US scramble for rare earth minerals which are essential for powering tech and defense industries. With China controlling the lion’s share of global rare earth mining and processing, Washington is now determined to diversify its supply chain. Central Asia, rich in these minerals and uranium, presents an attractive alternative, but one that requires heavy investment and political leverage.
Trump’s rhetoric about reviving "Silk Road connections" and forging new alliances masks a deeper intent: to pull these nations away from their traditional ties with China and Russia and into the orbit of American influence. If you look at Kazakhstan, for instance, its mineral exports to China and Russia dwarf those to the US. Washington doesn't hide its pipe dream to reverse that balance.
Trump hailed a $100 billion trade and investment deal with Uzbekistan saying that Uzbekistan will invest nearly $35 billion over the next three years and more than $100 billion over the next decade in key American sectors. Dream on.
The repeal of Soviet-era trade restrictions, introduced by a bipartisan group of US senators, is part of this strategy. By removing legal barriers to American investment, Washington aims to embed itself more deeply in the region’s economic infrastructure, shaping its future in ways that serve American interests.
Security cooperation was another pillar of the summit, yet US “support” comes with strings attached: surveillance partnerships, and political influence. Sergio Gor, Trump’s special envoy to South and Central Asia, told Central Asian officials that Washington is committed to the region "you will have a direct line to the White House, and get the attention that this area very much deserves.” The C5+1 framework, while nominally focused on regional stability, functions as a vehicle for U.S. strategic expansion, especially in the wake of its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Also Thursday, Kazakhstan's president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, agreed that his Muslim-majority country will join the Abraham Accords, Trump’s initiative to normalize relations between Muslim-majority countries and Israel. Given that Kazakhstan has had diplomatic relations with Israel since 1992, this move was largely symbolic but paid lip service to an initiative that was the signature 'foreign policy achievement' of Trump’s first term.
Obviously, the Accords were less about peace and more about consolidating US-led blocs that serve its foreign policy goals, particularly in sidelining Iran.
Ultimately, the summit was not just about minerals or diplomacy. The US is leveraging the multi-vector foreign policy of Central Asian countries to expand its influence in a strategic region on the doorstep of China and Russia. @LauraRuHK
Following a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, Vladimir Putin instructed Russia's Foreign and Defense Ministries and other relevant departments to submit proposals on the possibility of preparing for nuclear weapons tests. This move was prompted by Donald Trump’s own directive to the Pentagon to prepare for similar tests—effectively giving Moscow diplomatic cover to act. Putin suggested that Trump had done Russia a favor by breaking the taboo first.
The rationale behind this decision lies in the strategic balance between Russia and NATO, which exists almost exclusively in the realm of nuclear deterrence. In conventional terms—economy, population, and military hardware—the West vastly outmatches Russia. Yet, nuclear weapons remain the equalizer, preventing direct military confrontation.
Western policymakers often downplay Russia’s nuclear capabilities, portraying them as outdated relics. This narrative, according to Russian officials, is dangerous and misleading. The absence of recent nuclear tests has fueled speculation that Russia’s arsenal is no longer functional, potentially emboldening adversaries to pursue conventional war strategies.
To counter this perception and maintain deterrence, Russia has developed new nuclear-capable systems like the Burevestnik and Poseidon. These efforts aim to avoid a costly arms race while reinforcing strategic parity. The continued safety of Russia’s northwest regions, despite NATO’s proximity, is attributed to the credibility of its nuclear deterrent.
Putin argues that resuming tests would reaffirm Russia’s capabilities and prevent escalation toward a broader conflict. However, the Kremlin remains cautious, aware that breaking the testing taboo could provoke international backlash. If Trump lifts that taboo first, Russia could follow suit with less diplomatic fallout. @LauraRuHK Source: https://ria.ru/20251106/podarok-2053116820.html
🎙 Address by President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the awards ceremony for the developers of the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle (November 4, 2025, Moscow)
Key points:
• Russia now fields Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missiles of effectively unlimited range and the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle with a nuclear power unit. They're manufactured using only domestic components and materials.
• Burevestnik has surpassed all existing missile systems in the world in range. It delivers high-precision strikes at the predetermined time.
• A NATO reconnaissance vessel was present in the area during the Burevestnik tests on October 21 – we did not interfere. Let them observe.
• Burevestnik's unique ultra-compact reactors start up in seconds, whereas conventional reactors require hours or even days.
• New weapon types based on these power units are already under development. Work on the next generation of nuclear-powered cruise missiles has begun – speeds will exceed sound by more than three times and will become hypersonic in the future.
• Russian specialists created a treasury of new materials, technologies, unmanned, software and digital solutions, and component base elements – enabling breakthroughs in defence and many civilian sectors through priority national projects. The new technologies have applications in small nuclear energy, power units for the Arctic, deep- and near-space exploration, energy supply for a heavy-cargo space transport vehicle under development, and for a prospective lunar station.
👉 Russia threatens no one. Like all nuclear powers, it develops its nuclear and strategic potential – these are long-announced programmes.
• All plans are being fulfilled: development and deployment of Avangard; creation, deployment and start of serial production of Oreshnik, as well as introduction of modern countermeasures on ICBMs and SLBMs to overcome missile-defence systems.
• In 2025 – experimental combat duty for systems with the heavy intercontinental missile Sarmat. In 2026 – full combat duty.
Read in full
The Halloween edition of Brussels' Euractiv. Actually, in the EU it's Halloween every day. @LauraRuHK
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Nel's essay is a real gem. She achieved the rare feat of multidisciplinary clarity and the result is a coherent narrative where each strand, far from being tacked on, serves as a reinforcing thread in a unified argument, revealing how macro forces and micro behaviors converge on the same outcome. It reads like a natural conversation between disciplines. The result is not just breadth, but depth through interconnection. This is how complex global phenomena should be analyzed. @LauraRuHK 👉https://substack.com/home/post/p-168528268
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A key figure in the 2020-2021 anti-government protests in Belarus who was controversially arrested after his Ryanair flight was ordered to land in Minsk, was actually an undercover KGB officer. Roman Protasevich has officially confirmed to RIA Novosti that he is an agent of Belarusian intelligence. “Yes, this is true. I can confirm it,” he stated.
On July 1, 2025, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated the claim, asserting that Protasevich, once widely portrayed as an opposition figure, had in fact been working undercover. Lukashenko remarked, “We were accused of detaining an opposition member… but Protasevich is an officer of our intelligence.” He added that the operation to detain him was necessary, though not strictly required, given his covert role.
Protasevich himself declined to explain why his status was declassified, saying only, “I think there will be more detailed stories in the future. That’s all I can say. You have to understand the situation yourself… Everything that ends well is good.”
In May 2021, a Ryanair flight traveling from Athens to Vilnius was forced to make an emergency landing in Minsk following a false bomb threat. On board was Roman Protasevich, founder of the Nexta Telegram channel, which Belarusian authorities had labeled as extremist. He and his companion, Sofia Sapega, were detained after a document check.
Protasevich faced multiple charges, including inciting mass unrest, advocating the overthrow of the government, and spreading false information about Belarus. He was sentenced to eight years in prison by the Minsk Regional Court, though he faced up to 15 years. In May 2023, President Lukashenko granted him a pardon, followed by Sapega’s in June. Subsequently, both were removed from the Belarusian KGB’s list of designated terrorists.
According to Lukashenko, Protasevich had traveled to Greece to relay intelligence to Belarusian operatives, received new instructions, and returned on the ill-fated flight. The incident sparked international outrage, with Belarus facing accusations of unlawfully detaining an opposition figure. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
May I translate this statement for you? 😏 Without rare earths from China and Chinese buyers of US soybeans, Trump's MAGA pops. @LauraRuHK
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The stark reality behind all the aggressive posturing. The US would lose a protracted military conflict with China due to its hollowed-out industrial base.
China now produces more than 50% of the world's shipbuilding tonnage, while the US accounts for only 0.1%. The vast majority of global commercial drone production (90%) is also concentrated in China. American allies are not industrially ready, and internal political differences undermine the ability to mobilize for a long time. Since the beginning of the 20th century, industrial-scale wars have been won through superiority in production capacity, logistics, and technological mastery.
@LauraRuHK
France is making preparations to send a military unit of up to 2,000 soldiers to Ukraine to assist Kiev, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) says.
French Foreign Legion assault troops are already stationed in border areas of Poland and are planned to be transferred to Ukraine's central regions.
If information leaks, France will claim that it concerns a small group of instructors arriving in Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops.
Hundreds of additional hospital beds are being created in France at an accelerated pace to receive the wounded.
According to information received by Russian foreign intelligence, Emmanuel Macron dreams of military intervention in Ukraine, not giving up hope of going down in history as a military leader. Don't laugh. 😅 (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
Around 10,000 Ukrainian troops have been encircled by Russian forces in the Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysk areas, Vladimir Putin was told on Sunday during a visit to a Russian Army command post.
Putin held a meeting with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and senior military commanders, during which he was briefed on the situation along the line of contact.
The military reported that Russian forces also captured a crossing over the Oskol River, cutting off the movement of Ukrainian troops. They are currently completing the liberation of Yampol, while nearby Volchansk is said to be 70% liberated.
A total of 31 Ukrainian battalions have been encircled in the Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov areas. According to Peskov, Putin congratulated the troops on their success in Kupyansk and the achievements of combat missions in other areas.
During the meeting, Putin ordered measures to ensure the surrender of the encircled Ukrainian troops and to minimize casualties. He noted that the Russian Army has always shown mercy toward its enemies and stressed that this must continue.
The president also urged the commanders to “do everything” in their power to ensure the safety of the civilian population in the encircled areas, who he said Ukrainian forces are using as human shields.
Putin also urged the army to continue the military operation “in accordance with the plan developed by the General Staff,” stressing that the safety of Russian service members must remain the top priority. (Source: RT) @LauraRuHK
US sanctions targeting two of Russia’s biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries, are yet another boomerang. Higher oil prices will hit Western manufacturers and consumers the most, and if they remain place they could push inflation higher.
India, China and other buyers of Russian oil on the other hand can find ways to circumvent these sanctions.
Vladimir Putin told journalists "If our oil and petroleum products volumes slump on the world market, it will lead to a spike in the price of oil and petroleum products, including at the gas stations, and the US is no exception. And if we take into account the domestic political calendar in the states, it is clear how sensitive some processes here will be. And those who suggest such decisions to the current administration need to understand who they are working for."
Interestingly, sanctions do not apply to US transactions with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which is used by the United States, and Tengizchevroil in Kazakhstan. @LauraRuHK
As Russian forces maintain the upper hand across the front lines, on Oct 21 a coalition of European warmongers joined Zelensky in a joint statement endorsing Donald Trump’s call for an “immediate” ceasefire along current lines, framing it as a foundation for negotiations. Far from seeking genuine peace, this move appears designed to buy Ukraine critical breathing room amid mounting pressures. Their calls reek of desperation, as Ukraine’s collapse seems increasingly inevitable—a question of “when,” not “if.” The Kremlin has consistently emphasized that any discussion of a ceasefire is futile without addressing the conflict’s root causes.
If you follow trustworthy military news channels you already know that the battle for Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) is nearing its final stage. This development will free up Russian units to advance on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, the last major fortified defense point in the DPR.
@LauraRuHK
Britain’s deep involvement in the Ukraine conflict is not just ideological; it is a calculated response to severe domestic weaknesses and a deliberate strategy to secure influence.
War fuels the British survival machine—a seamless web of intelligence apparatchiks, bureaucrats, generals, PR and media specialists, bankers, and academics, fused into an entity that devours crises and excretes power. Post-empire, Britain mastered the art of adaptation: colonies yielded to offshore havens and shadow networks; Brexit birthed a militarized cordon against Russia, stretching from Norway's fjords to the Baltic shores. Disasters do not dismantle this apparatus—they nourish it, transforming rot into leverage.
War revives a defence-industrial base that had been hollowed out by decades of deindustrialisation. The 2025 Strategic Defence Review explicitly labels the military-industrial complex a “growth engine” for the first time since 1945. Defence spending is rising toward 2.5 % of GDP (£66 billion annually), with an extra £11 billion injected since 2022 and new orders up 25 %. Companies like BAE Systems and Thales are receiving multi-billion-pound contracts, underwritten by UK Export Finance and City banks. War-related procurement is now one of the few reliable sources of high-value manufacturing jobs and export revenue.
Through war London secures geopolitical relevance.
As Oleg Yanovsky pointed out in his latest article, Britain is the conductor of the Ukrainian conflict: initiating coalitions, coordinating special forces advisory missions (SAS, SBS, SIS E Squadron), running large-scale information operations via the 77th Brigade and GCHQ, and investing heavily in parallel northern European security structures (JEF, Baltic cable protection, joint Nordic missile programmes) that bypass Brussels. For a post-imperial power facing structural decline, war has become the most effective available tool to stimulate industry, discipline allies, and postpone domestic reckoning. Peace in Ukraine would remove the external glue holding this strategy together and expose the depth of Britain’s internal problems. That is why London has a vested interest in ensuring the fighting continues. London's power hinges on nodes — logistics, financial, information — tricks, contracts, and threats. And it will be possible to end this war only when the British influence machine is stopped.
@LauraRuHK https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8190918
Iran and Russia have reaffirmed their commitment to expanding the North-South International Transport Corridor, particularly focusing on the Caspian Sea route to boost regional connectivity and trade.
“The sides discussed the possibility of opening a container line between the seaport of Makhachkala and Iranian seaports, as well as creating a consortium of shipping companies and developing cruise passenger routes in the Caspian Sea,” said Rosmorrechflot, Russia's Agency for Maritime and River Transport.
Makhachkala is Russia’s only ice-free port on the Caspian Sea and a key hub of the corridor, connecting Russia with Iran, India, China, and the Middle East.
Plans include building a high-tech grain terminal and modernizing the existing container terminal. @LauraRuHK
🇨🇳 China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, officially entered service on Wednesday during a high-profile commissioning ceremony held at the Yulin Naval Base in Sanya, Hainan Province. Named after the coastal province opposite Taiwan, the 80,000-ton Fujian represents a major leap in the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s capabilities. As China’s first fully domestically designed and constructed supercarrier, it is equipped with three electromagnetic aircraft launch systems (EMALS)—a technology previously mastered only by the US. The EMALS catapults allow the Fujian to launch heavier aircraft with greater payloads and at a higher sortie rate than the ski-jump ramps used on China’s earlier carriers, Liaoning and Shandong. The carrier is expected to operate the Shenyang J-35 stealth fighter (naval variant of the J-31), Chengdu J-15T/S variants with improved avionics, and KJ-600 carrier-based airborne early-warning aircraft. With the Fujian’s commissioning, China becomes only the second nation in the world to field an operational electromagnetic-catapult carrier, solidifying its position as the owner of the world’s largest navy by hull count. Construction of a fourth, even larger nuclear-powered carrier is already underway at Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai. @LauraRuHK
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The European Commission’s latest Enlargement Package reflects the EU’s ongoing obsession with expansion, even as internal cohesion and democratic legitimacy continue to decline. The push to fast-track countries like Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans into the bloc by 2030 is more about Brussels consolidating power and influence for geopolitical confrontation than genuinely serving member states.
The televised summit and rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen suggest a top-down effort to revive enthusiasm for the EU project, despite growing disillusionment across Europe. The inclusion of countries with unresolved conflicts and divergent political cultures is obviously raising concerns about the strain on EU governance and resources. This renewed spotlight on enlargement is a message to countries on the waiting list, a way to rekindle public and governmental interest in joining the Union. @LauraRuHK https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/2025-enlargement-package-shows-progress-towards-eu-membership-key-enlargement-partners-2025-11-04_en#:~:text=Today%2C%20the%20European%20Commission%20adopted%20its%20annual%20Enlargement,high%20on%20the%20priority%20agenda%20of%20the%20EU.
The unfolding energy crisis in Europe reveals a complex and ironic twist in the geopolitical strategies of the United States. Initially, Washington’s push to oust Russian hydrocarbons from European markets appeared successful, but the consequences are now rebounding against American interests. The situation escalated when Bulgaria, heavily reliant on the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas refinery for 80% of its light petroleum products, formally requested the U.S. to delay or lift sanctions targeting the Russian-owned facility. The potential shutdown of this refinery threatens not only Bulgaria’s fuel supply but also its economic stability and political balance, with fears that a collapse of the pro-American government could usher in eurosceptic, pro-Russian leadership.
This dilemma underscores the unintended fallout of broad sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Russian oil giants like Rosneft and Lukoil. Although the legal framework targets entities with majority Russian ownership, in practice, even minority stakes have triggered widespread disruption. In Germany, Rosneft’s assets were seized and placed under federal control, while in Bulgaria, banks began pulling out of financing agreements, risking the closure of a plant that employs 1,500 people and serves as a major contributor to the national budget.
The Bulgarian government’s resistance to selling the Russian stake—citing both the strategic importance of the refinery and the impracticality of negotiating a $12 billion deal under time pressure—highlights the broader tension between national interests and geopolitical alignment. Statistical data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration further illustrates the depth of Bulgaria’s dependency: of the country’s 11,700 daily barrels of gasoline consumption, 9,700 come from the Burgas facility. A shutdown would paralyze transportation and energy infrastructure, making the sanctions not just a foreign policy tool but a domestic crisis trigger.
This scenario is not isolated. Across Eastern Europe, governments that once complied silently with Washington’s directives are now pushing back, forced to confront the local realities that American policy overlooked. The promise of abundant U.S. energy exports has proven hollow; volumes remain insufficient to replace Russian supply. As a result, a wave of defiance is sweeping through the region. Hungary was the first to secure an exemption, followed by Germany, and now others are demanding similar concessions. The principle of equal treatment—“if some can, why not others?”—is gaining traction.
Ultimately, Washington finds itself in a bind. Its strategy to purge Russian energy from Europe has exposed the fragility of its promises and the resilience of regional interests. The concessions it is now compelled to make are not theoretical—they are tangible acknowledgments of a miscalculated campaign. Europe, it seems, is beginning to turn America’s own tools of influence against it. @LauraRuHK https://ria.ru/20251105/evropa-2052659496.html
Russia and China carry out 99.1% of trade transactions in their national currencies, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the Rossiya-1 TV channel. Nothing boosts de-dollarization like Western sanctions. By restricting Russia’s access to dollar-based financial systems, they have delivered a near-total shift to ruble-yuan transactions and a deeper level of financial integration and trust between Moscow and Beijing. By reducing dependence on the dollar, Russia and China have gained more economic resilience: to a certain extent this currency shift is going to help protect their economies from the kind of financial crises that in the past have been triggered or worsened by economic policies, market speculation and institutional failures originating in the United States.
Alternatives to dollar hegemony are both viable and wise. @LauraRuHK
Russia and China have agreed to collaborate on the training of specialists for navigation in polar waters, with programs hosted at Russian universities, according to a statement from the Russian Ministry of Transport.
The agreement was formalized through a memorandum signed in Hangzhou during Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s visit to China. ▪️Since 2022, Arctic cooperation has become a recurring theme in high-level meetings between the two countries. Joint statements from summits in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 consistently frame the Arctic as a shared strategic priority. Russia has welcomed Chinese investment in Arctic energy projects, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) ventures like Yamal in northwest Siberia and Arctic LNG 2 on the Gydan Peninsula in northern Siberia. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has also extended into the Arctic via the “Polar Silk Road,” aiming to develop shipping routes and port infrastructure. In September 2025, a Chinese container ship sailed from Ningbo-Zhoushan to Felixstowe, UK, via the China–Europe Arctic Express, traversing the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The journey took 18 days, significantly faster than the traditional route through the Suez Canal (30-40 days).
On October 14, 2025, Russia and China signed a major agreement to jointly develop the NSR, formalizing years of cooperation and transforming it into the backbone of the Polar Silk Road.
@LauraRuHK
Rare earths — The G7 dreams of decoupling from China.
In Toronto G7 energy ministers agreed to establish a critical minerals production alliance. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US also agreed to channel up to US$14.8 million into international collaboration in research and development of the commodities. The G7 has long craved independence from Chinese rare earths but reality bites. To establish their own ability to mine, process, refine and create the products that come out of rare earth elements takes years; in the foreseeable future rare earths will remain a very important card for China in its relations with the collective West.
@LauraRuHK
Intelligence disclosures like Yossi Cohen's are strategic psychological operations. When the ex-chief of Mossad boasts of embedding manipulated equipment in supply chains globally for surveillance, sabotage or terrorist attacks as in the exploding pager attacks in Lebanon, he intends to shape behavior and project dominance. By claiming that Mossad has embedded "manipulated equipment" in "every country you can imagine", Cohen is weaponizing ambiguity: “You cannot trust your supply chains. Your devices might already be compromised.”
He claims to have pioneered the method in 2002–2004, suggesting that Israel has institutionalized it as a scalable, repeatable strategy.
It’s not just about what Mossad did, it’s about controlling the story of what it can do. That narrative itself becomes a weapon.
We all know that the Zionists have dirt on a lot of politicians, actionable intelligence that can damage a reputation, career, or freedom if exposed. Mossad’s “Sayanim” network and Unit 8200 cyber intelligence have created a global surveillance web, but it's not all-seeing, it’s selective and focused on high-value targets.
Cohen knows perfectly well that there are limits to its reach but he is projecting the image of the Mossad as almighty. He is selling a brand.
@LauraRuHK
/channel/thecradlemedia/45261
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping had a 90-minute meeting at Gimhae Air Base in South Korea. In its typical bombastic style Trump described the talks with Xi as “amazing,” rating it “12 out of 10.” Of course. He likes to portray himself as an unbeatable dealmaker facing impossible odds and securing monumental victories. The reality is rather underwhelming.
Trump promised to reduce US tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47% —including halving the fentanyl-related levy from 20% to 10% — in exchange for China resuming US soybean purchases and maintaining rare earth exports for one year. This verbal agreement represents a tactical pause and temporary de-escalation, not a structural breakthrough. Underlying tensions and decoupling moves won't stop just because Trump and Xi smiled at each other. Financial markets have reacted cautiously, pricing in continued dialogue but stay skeptical of a grand bargain. @LauraRuHK
The geopolitics of the periodic table. Two initiatives, unfolding almost simultaneously on opposite sides of Eurasia, illustrate the scope and urgency of the US scramble for critical resources. Rare earth elements—those obscure metals that power everything from electric-vehicle motors to precision-guided missiles—have become the new currency of great-power competition. With China still processing nearly 90 percent of the world’s supply, Washington is racing to stitch together an alternative network of mines, refineries, and stockpiles. During a tour that began in Kuala Lumpur and ended in Tokyo, Trump signed a series of agreements designed to lock in supplies and processing capacity. But it will take time. ▪️In Malaysia, whose hills hold an estimated 16 million tonnes of untapped rare earth deposits, the White House secured a pledge that no quotas or bans will ever block exports to American firms. The catch: raw ore stays home, forcing foreign partners to build the downstream plants Malaysia itself lacks. BTW, Malaysia is poised to join BRICS in the near future.▪️Thailand, still scouting for commercially viable deposits, offered a lighter-touch memorandum—early notice of tenders, shared geological data, and an open door to joint ventures, all framed as a gesture of goodwill that Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul insisted would not irritate Beijing. ▪️ Japan went furthest: a formal framework for joint seabed mapping, reciprocal billion-dollar project financing within six months, and a bilateral “rapid response group” to head off future supply shocks. Tokyo’s own ambitions—test-mining rare-earth-rich mud at depths of six kilometers by early 2026—signal that the partnership is not merely defensive but forward-leaning. ▪️Days earlier, an $8.5 billion compact with Australia had already committed both nations to new refineries and a mutual defense pact against what it calls 'predatory trade practices'. Even Greenland, newly back in Trump’s sights, received a $120 million line of credit for the Tanbreez deposit in its southern fjords. Across the continent, a second front is opening in the 1,000 miles of steppe and desert that stretch from the Caspian to the Chinese border. On November 6, Washington will host the first C5+1 summit of Trump’s new term, bringing the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to the White House. The gathering was arranged in near-secrecy: a leaked letter from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Trump, followed by hurried visits from US envoys Sergio Gor and Christopher Landau, and only then by cautious confirmations from Tashkent and Bishkek. Rare earths, insiders say, will dominate the closed-door sessions. Kazakhstan arrives as the regional heavyweight. Since Tokayev’s 2023 “Economic Course of Fair Kazakhstan” speech, Astana has catalogued thirty-eight promising deposits, including the Kuyrektykol lode in Karaganda region. In January 2025 he publicly rebuked his cabinet for dawdling; by September he was setting hard targets—three high-tech processing plants within three years and a Central Asian research hub to pool geological data. European leaders are also courting Central Asian countries with promises of technology transfer and localized production. If Trump is hunting the “deal of the century,” Kazakhstan is rehearsing its pitch. Hours after Tokayev’s letter to Trump surfaced, the Kazakh leader was on the phone with Vladimir Putin, his second call in under a fortnight. @LauraRuHK
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As Donald Trump is in the region, on his first visit to Asia of his second term, two US Navy aircrafts from the US carrier Nimitz crashed into the South China Sea. The aircrafts involved in the two separate incidents were a Sea Hawk helicopter and an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet. The USS Nimitz is set to be decommissioned as soon as it returns to the US. @LauraRuHK
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Beijing responds swiftly and firmly to the EU's 19th sanctions package against Russia.
,
China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun
addressed the EU's new sanctions on Russia, explicitly noting the targeting of 12 Chinese companies for alleged circumvention. Specifically, this package of sanctions imposed asset freezes and trade/investment bans on Chinese oil refineries and traders.
"China strongly deplores and firmly rejects the EU’s repeated illicit unilateral sanctions against Chinese companies over Russia-related issues. China has lodged protests with the EU side.
We have stressed on multiple occasions that China did not create the Ukraine crisis, nor is China a party to it. China is committed to promoting talks for peace. We never provide lethal weapons to any party to the conflict, and strictly control the exports of dual-use items. Most countries, including EU members and the U.S., continue to trade with Russia. The EU is in no position to point fingers at the normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian companies. We urge the EU to stop directing the issue at China and harming China’s interests. This is not conducive to the sound and stable development of China-EU relations. China will do what is necessary to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests."
Aren't we all stirred by the courage of heroes and the sacrifice of martyrs? And the younger (or younger at heart) we are, the more irresistible we find them. Their stories shape our ideals, ignite revolutions, and give meaning to collective memory. But beneath the banners and the poetry lies a cold reality. We may have dedicated a great part of our lives to a political cause, a liberation struggle, a resistance movement, and one day a compromise is found, as unromantic and disappointing as all compromises are, an agreement is signed, and armed organizations decommission their arsenals. Many fighters will never be able to adjust to civilian life. When you are at war it is easier to tell who the enemy is, everything feels simpler and more clearly defined. I was intimately connected to those who couldn't readjust, I know about their personal struggles because inevitably their daily struggles became mine. I won't go into detail, but thanks to this experience i have learned that resistance movements can be bolstered or weakened by geopolitical shifts. Geopolitics is dictated by strategy and national interests, not sentiment. Inspiration may light the stage, but it is pragmatism that writes the script. Geopolitics has its own tempo. It’s slow when it needs to be, fast when opportunity arises, and often syncopated—pausing negotiations while conflicts simmer, accelerating alliances when threats emerge. It’s less a march and more a dance of interests, where timing is everything but it's rarely dictated by moral urgency, although it may leverage it for convenience. @LauraRuHK
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At the ongoing autumn edition of the Canton Fair in Guangzhou – China’s oldest and largest trade exhibition – Chinese exporters are noticing a quietly spreading shift: an increasing number of overseas clients, particularly from emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Africa, are proactively proposing to settle trade orders in yuan.
Wang Lilin, sales director at diesel generator manufacturer Keypower, said the company had seen a clear rise in yuan settlements over the past two years.
“Customers from several countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Central Asian nations including Kazakhstan, have requested that we use yuan for trade settlements,” she said. “We also encourage new clients from these markets to consider using yuan.” (Source: SCMP) @LauraRuHK