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Researcher & writer based in Hong Kong. Former academic. Longform articles archived at https://lauraruggeri.substack.com and https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com. Email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
I seldom log onto X. When I did today, I was struck by the number of influencers willing to stake their credibility on fake news such as the supposed death of Netanyahu. Since the Zionist axis is already in deep shit and there is no need to amplify conspiracy theories to state the obvious, why are they doubling down on crude fakes rather than retract what has been debunked? Netanyahu appeared on Israeli TV several times since rumours of his death gained traction on social media. Several international channels have aired this video footage. But hey, it's a clone, they say, his body double, an AI-generated video etc. Really? Has it ever crossed their minds that hiding the death of such a hated figure isn't that simple?
Maybe it did cross their minds, but posting dramatic "he's dead / AI body double" claims with screenshots of a supposed six-fingered hand gets massive reach among certain audiences. In polarized online spaces, crude fakes spread fast because they are shared within bubbles that distrust mainstream fact-checkers by default. I don't trust them either, but i don't live in a bubble...and know how difficult it is to hide the death of a prime minister. @LauraRuHK
Nota di servizio. Su Telegram come su altri social media e canali di messaggistica esiste la funzione "condividi" e anche la possibilita' di copiare il link del post che si vuole commentare oppure tradurre. Se vi imbattete in post che mi vengono attribuiti ma che non contengono un link all'originale, e' cosa buona e giusta diffidare. Su questo canale scrivo sia in inglese che in italiano, se un testo appare solo in inglese e qualcuno lo traduce in italiano io non sono ne' al corrente di eventuali errori di traduzione ne' responsabile di quel contenuto. @LauraRuHK
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La campagna elettorale di Donald Trump del 2024 aveva promesso una "rinascita americana" alimentata da energia a basso costo: “L’energia serve a ritornare grandi. La benzina deve scendere sotto i 2 dollari al gallone, bisogna abbassare il prezzo di tutto, dalle tariffe elettriche ai generi alimentari, dai biglietti aerei al riscaldamento.” Questa visione di reindustrializzazione e sovranità economica era il cuore pulsante del progetto MAGA. L’energia non era presentata soltanto come una merce, ma come la chiave di volta del rinnovamento nazionale.
Operation Epic Fail (Operazione Fallimento Epico) ha sepolto quella visione e inflitto danni collaterali agli stessi alleati degli USA. Sul fronte interno, la benzina è salita a una media nazionale di 3,58–3,60 dollari al gallone, mentre il diesel è aumentato di quasi un dollaro. Trump liquida la questione come “temporanea”, ma i numeri parlano da soli.
Le conseguenze internazionali per gli Stati Uniti sono ancora più gravi.
La guerra ha inflitto un colpo economico devastante ai loro alleati nel Golfo e oltre.
Arabia Saudita, Emirati Arabi Uniti, Bahrein e Qatar hanno visto i loro terminal petroliferi e gli impianti di GNL colpiti direttamente dalla risposta iraniana, con il traffico marittimo nello Stretto di Hormuz praticamente paralizzato.
E' una crisi che non si può contenere e le sue ripercussioni si sentono ora anche nel resto dell'Asia, soprattutto tra i vassalli di Washington. Giappone, Corea del Sud, Taiwan e Filippine — tutti fortemente dipendenti dalle importazioni marittime dal Golfo e vincolati dal rispetto delle sanzioni statunitensi — subiscono gli shock più acuti. Corea del Sud e Giappone hanno già registrato rallentamenti nelle raffinerie; Filippine e Thailandia hanno imposto settimane lavorative di quattro giorni e razionamento del carburante; il Bangladesh ha implorato Washington di ottenere una deroga alle sanzioni per acquistare petrolio russo, la stessa ancora di salvezza già concessa in silenzio all’India.
Qui sta l’amara ironia: l’unica cosa che può ora salvare questi alleati in difficoltà è il petrolio e il gas russo. India e Cina, proprio perché hanno ignorato le sanzioni occidentali e aumentato gli acquisti di greggio russo, stanno affrontando la crisi molto meglio dei partner “fedeli” di Washington.
La guerra contro l’Iran non ha soltanto seppellito le illusioni del MAGA; ha messo a nudo l’assurdità delle alleanze americane (solo Israele riceve assegni in bianco e trattamento preferenziale).
Gli stessi partner che Washington afferma di proteggere sono ora economicamente paralizzati da un conflitto le cui conseguenze non sono state pienamente calcolate dall’amministrazione Trump. E non si potrà rimediare a questo invitando pastori evangelici nello Studio Ovale a benedire uno speculatore immobiliare fallito. @LauraRuHK
🔹The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says it has launched a devastating missile and drone strike on the US Navy's Fifth Fleet base in Mina Salman, Bahrain, shortly after the first message from the new leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasized Iran's "determined and regret-inducing" defense efforts. /channel/presstv/179510
🔹Iraq's resistance groups have struck down a US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker, a symbol of American overreach and aggression. /channel/presstv/179531
The Russian authorities pursue one main goal in matters of regulating Internet resources – to force all companies to comply with the legislation. "No one wants to prohibit companies from doing business, which is why we seek to regulate Telegram rather than block", said Andrey Svintsov, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy. But if Telegram doesn't comply it will be blocked and he added that Russians will not be able to continue using Telegram by simply downloading VPN services. According to him, Roskomnadzor will track traffic, so it will not be possible to "trick" the agency. Svintsov told Zvezda: "VPN traffic is 100% visible, it may not be possible to block everything, but it is quite realistic to slow it down to such an extent that the normal use of Telegram, YouTube or other platforms will become impossible". @LauraRuHK ➡️ /channel/zvezdanews/171721
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🔸Comic relief🔸 Chinese netizens take the piss out of Donald Trump by reenacting the infamous "Washington prayer".😅 @LauraRuHK ➡️https://www.douyin.com/search/%20%22%E5%8D%8E%E7%9B%9B%E9%A1%BF%E7%A5%88%E7%A5%B7%20%E6%A8%A1%E4%BB%BF?aid=aa21b8df-69b1-4e6a-9ad1-fa17cba4c834&modal_id=7615875857273645987&type=general
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Ulteriore esempio di imperial overstretch. La sproporzione tra ambizioni e mezzi disponibili non potrebbe essere più chiara. 🔺Fonti governative sudcoreane hanno confermato che i sistemi di difesa aerea a lungo raggio MIM-104 Patriot dell’esercito statunitense e i sistemi antimissile THAAD stanno venendo trasferiti dalla Corea del Sud al Medio Oriente per rimpiazzare le perdite subite a causa dei controattacchi iraniani.🔺Il presidente sudcoreano Lee Jae-myung ha dichiarato durante la riunione di gabinetto di martedì che, sebbene la Corea del Sud abbia espresso la propria opposizione al ritiro da parte delle USFK di armi di difesa aerea necessarie per le esigenze di sicurezza nazionali, il Paese asiatico non è stato in grado di far valere pienamente la propria posizione. ▪️I vassalli sudcoreani — perdonate, i “preziosi alleati” — stanno facendo un corso intensivo su cosa significhi davvero essere un “partner privilegiato degli Stati Uniti”. Il vostro ombrello antimissile? In prestito, a quanto pare, finché lo Zio Sam non ne ha bisogno per schiacciare droni iraniani sul Golfo Persico. Le vostre obiezioni strategiche? Annotate, archiviate e allegramente ignorate.
@LauraRuHK ➡️https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-withdrawing-patriot-skorea-redeploy-iran
➡️https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-withdrawing-thaad-skorea-replenish-iran
The Handala Hacking Group announced a successful cyber operation in retaliation for the brutal attack on the Minab school and ongoing cyber assaults on the resistance axis's infrastructure.
The group targeted Striker Corporation, linked to the global Zionist lobby, delivering what they described as an unprecedented blow.
The operation has reportedy wiped over 200,000 systems, servers, and mobile devices clean, extracted 50 terabytes of critical data, and forced Striker's offices in 79 countries to close.
@PressTV
A private company in China providing intelligence-gathering services to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) says it intercepted radio signals from American stealth bombers that struck Iran on March 1.
Jingan Technology, a defence technology firm based in east China’s Hangzhou, also asserted that it detected signals linked to US military activities well before the start of Operation Epic Fury Fail, using artificial intelligence to analyse early indicators.
According to the company, its Jingqi war monitoring system reconstructed the sequence of the US military build-up.
The claim, if accurate, would demonstrate enhanced Chinese capabilities to track even stealth platforms via non-radar means (e.g., radio emissions during return flights or communications) and provide early warning of major operations—potentially advancing PLA electronic intelligence, situational awareness, and counter-stealth efforts. (Source: SCMP) @LauraRuHK
Israel intends to step up attacks on Iran amid fears that the US may soon end the military operation, claiming victory under one pretext or another, the Al-Monitor news website reported, citing Israeli government sources.
The sources point to divisions in the country’s government on the future of the Iran operation, as Netanyahu and intelligence agencies continue to seek regime change in the country, while the army is skeptical.
Still, the IDF is determined to inflict as much damage as possible on Iran before the US stops the military operation. Primary targets include facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program, the production of ballistic missiles and drones, as well as administrative sites. (Source: TASS) @LauraRuHK
“To date, the EU is Ukraine’s number one supporter, with €195 billion ($225 billion) since 2022,”
La rigida censura di Israele sta giocando un ruolo enorme nell’alimentare le notizie false più assurde. C’è un blackout dell'informazione quasi totale sugli effetti reali degli attacchi missilistici e con droni iraniani all’interno di Israele. Dopo una settimana di obiettivi centrati che hanno distrutto installazioni radar chiave, sistemi di allerta precoce e parti delle reti di difesa aerea (con alcuni rapporti che segnalano capacità degradate e un crollo netto delle intercettazioni), possiamo ragionevolmente presumere che l’Iran abbia ottenuto discreti successi.
Le difese aeree israeliane sembrano vacillare sotto la pressione di questi attacchi: meno intercettazioni significa più obiettivi colpiti e sistemi come Iron Dome e Arrow in affanno.
Tutti i principali organi di informazione che operano in Israele legalmente sono di fatto soggetti alla censura militare: la censura dell’IDF può (e lo fa) bloccare trasmissioni in diretta di intercettazioni di missili, immagini di siti impattati, valutazioni dei danni o qualsiasi cosa possa rivelare vulnerabilità. Se i media stranieri violano questa censura rischiano la revoca dell’accreditamento, multe o peggio.
Questo crea enormi vuoti: niente immagini chiare da Tel Aviv o altre zone colpite, nessuna conferma in tempo reale di vittime o danni alle infrastrutture oltre a vaghe frasi tipo “feriti lievi” o “missili intercettati”.
In quel vuoto nascono le bufale: Netanyahu in fuga dal paese o assassinato, suo fratello morto in un attacco sulla sua casa, la casa di Ben-Gvir in fiamme per missili (tutte smentite in quanto usavano immagini vecchie o generate da IA), o attacchi al sito nucleare Dimona. La gente, disperata per qualsiasi briciola di informazione, riempie il vuoto con speculazioni, filmati realizzati con l'IA o provenienti da altri teatri di guerra, o resoconti frutto di fantasia che diventano mega-virali sui social prima che qualcuno possa smentirli.
Ma come si fa a verificare qualcosa senza accesso alla situazione sul campo? È un circolo vizioso: la censura genera sfiducia, cinismo e dipendenza da fonti non verificate.
Più il quadro è opaco, più le voci diventano assurde.
Allora, cosa puoi fare? Verifica le notizie. Se leggi qualcosa sui social ma nessun organo ufficiale di informazione iraniano lo ha riportato, aspetta la conferma prima di condividere o commentare. Nessuno degli esempi eclatanti di fake news che ho citato è stato ripreso dai media iraniani più affidabili.
Nella nebbia della guerra persino i media iraniani possono essere tentati di “abbellire” la verità, ma non arriveranno mai al punto di inventarsi storie di sana pianta solo per ottenere qualche like.
Aerial footage shows thousands of people united at Tehran’s Enqelab Square, pledging their allegiance to the Islamic Republic's new Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei.
@PressTV
Iran's Foreign Minister and Iran's Parliament Speaker are warning the world about the economic fallout from Operation Epic Mistake. @LauraRuHK
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Le azioni barbariche di Israele a Gaza hanno sdoganato l’uso dello sterminio come strumento di guerra. Nonostante le commissioni ONU abbiano stabilito nel 2025 che Israele avesse commesso un genocidio, la comunità internazionale è rimasta passiva e inerte. Le conseguenze dell'impunità di Israele sono profonde: quel genocidio ha aperto un vero e proprio vaso di Pandora.
La storia insegna che il significato di certi eventi non risiede solo nella loro immediata violenza e brutalità, ma nel precedente che creano, nelle regole che vengono riscritte dopo. L’aggressione congiunta di Stati Uniti e Israele contro l’Iran, culminata nell’assassinio della sua massima autorità politica e negli attacchi indiscriminati contro civili e infrastrutture, segna uno di questi momenti. Non si tratta di un semplice conflitto in Medio Oriente, ma di un ulteriore passo verso l’abisso dell’inumanità.
Teheran è sprofondata in una crisi ambientale e umanitaria: i raid su depositi di petrolio e impianti di carburante hanno liberato enormi quantità di sostanze tossiche nell’aria. La città è stata avvolta da nubi nere, piogge acide hanno colpito i residenti, gli incendi si sono propagati fino ai sistemi fognari. Uno scenario apocalittico che gli iraniani definiscono guerra chimica contro la popolazione, con effetti a lungo termine non solo sulla salute della popolazione iraniana visto che sono destinati a superare i confini nazionali.
L’impunità vista a Gaza ha rafforzato il cinismo globale, favorendo un mondo in cui la barbarie non è più l’eccezione ma la regola. Se il principio di sovranità, il diritto internazionale e il divieto dell’uso unilaterale della forza vengono a crollare, le vittime a lungo termine potrebbero essere proprio le potenze che cercano di frenare il dominio occidentale, in un sistema dove la forza bruta detta le regole. La storia dimostra che, una volta infrante le norme internazionali, difficilmente si torna indietro. @LauraRuHK
Marco Rubio is one of the most aggressive and influential China hawks in modern American politics. For over a decade, as a Senator and now Secretary of State, he has been the driving force behind the majority of hardline anti-China legislation and policies coming out of Washington. He has sponsored or co-sponsored nearly every major bill that has: *Demonized Beijing on the global stage
**Imposed sweeping sanctions on Chinese officials and entities
***Pushed for economic decoupling
****Expanded U.S. military posture against China
His signature 'achievements' include: the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act and the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which used baseless allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang to justify sanctions on senior Chinese officials.
The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which targeted Chinese and Hong Kong officials.
Multiple pieces of legislation restricting technology transfers, labeling China a “strategic adversary,” and pressuring allies to adopt similar hardline stances.
Rubio has consistently framed China as an existential threat, pushing narratives of genocide, forced labor, and global domination that have become the standard Washington talking points. As co-founder and former U.S. co-chair of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) and long-time leader of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, he has coordinated and amplified these measures both domestically and internationally.
China sanctioned Marco Rubio twice in 2020.
Now, according to the SCMP, Rubio is going to join Donald Trump on an upcoming trip to China from March 31 to April 2, despite Beijing's sanctions which typically include a travel ban.
@LauraRuHK
➡️https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3346383/sanctioned-rubio-take-part-trumps-china-trip-despite-previous-missed-opportunities?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱Where is Trump’s stupidity in regarding the destruction of the Iranian Navy?
- First, Trump thinks the Iranian Navy is a "conventional" force, like the U.S. or other big powers. But Iran’s navy is actually an asymmetric force—meaning it was built specifically to take on much stronger navies. Their real power is in those small, high-speed boats. Some are packed with explosives, some carry missiles, and others act like "sea drones" to hit their targets.
- Iran has built hundreds, maybe even thousands, of these small boats over many years. They keep them hidden away in secret shelters and tunnels. This "mosquito fleet" is what's designed to swarm and destroy huge warships, not the few large ships that the U.S. targeted a few days ago.
- According to reports from CNN, citing U.S. intelligence, Iran still has 90% of its small boats left. This is a huge reality check, because while Trump claims he destroyed their navy, the actual intelligence shows they are almost all still there.
Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign promised a reborn America powered by cheap energy: “Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon, bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares, and housing costs.” This vision of reindustrialization and economic sovereignty laid at the heart of MAGA. Energy was cast not just as a commodity but as the linchpin of national renewal. Operation Epic Fail has buried that vision and inflicted collateral damage on America’s own allies. At home, gasoline has jumped to a national average of $3.58–$3.60 per gallon while diesel prices have climbed almost a dollar. Trump now shrugs it off as “temporary", but the numbers speak for themselves.
The international fallout is even more damning. The war has delivered a devastating economic blow to U.S. allies across the Gulf and beyond. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar have watched their oil terminals and LNG facilities come under direct Iranian attack, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz virtually paralyzed. The pain radiates outward. In Asia, Washington’s vassals are hit the hardest. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines — all heavily dependent on Gulf seaborne imports and constrained by strict U.S. sanctions compliance — face the sharpest shocks. South Korea and Japan have seen refinery slowdowns; the Philippines and Thailand have imposed four-day government workweeks and fuel rationing; Bangladesh has begged Washington for a sanctions waiver to buy Russian oil, the same lifeline already quietly granted to India. Here lies the bitter irony: the only thing that can now rescue these struggling U.S. allies is Russian oil and gas. India and China, precisely because they ignored Western sanctions and ramped up purchases of discounted Russian crude, are weathering the crisis far better than Washington’s “loyal” partners. The war on Iran has not only killed MAGA’s fantasy; it has exposed the strategic absurdity of America’s alliances (only Israel receives a blank cheque). The very partners Washington claims to protect are now economically crippled by a conflict whose consequences the Trump administration has completely miscalculated. No gathering of pastors in the Oval Office to lay hands on a real estate huckster can fix that. @LauraRuHK
Operation Epic Fail has revealed that the unconditional alliance with Israel is a liability for the US. This idea is gaining traction among an increasing number of US military analysts. They argue that this alliance has inverted the patron-client dynamic and enabled entrapment. Unconditional commitments eliminate the junior ally's incentive for restraint, transferring agenda-setting power to the client (Israel). This turns the patron (U.S.) into a follower, making escalation inevitable when the ally acts.
🔹They draw a historical parallel with Germany's 1914 "blank check" to Austria-Hungary: Unconditional support for Austria's hard line against Serbia escalated a local crisis into World War I, despite Germany's lack of vital interests. Similarly, U.S. backing removes Israel's restraint, drawing America into a war serving Israeli objectives.
Israel's February 28 strikes targeted Iranian leadership (including Supreme Leader Khamenei), reportedly with CIA input for a post-regime transition scenario.
Oman-mediated nuclear talks were close to breakthrough but abandoned after strikes.
There was no casus belli.
A House Intelligence Committee member called it a "war of choice with no strategic endgame."
🔹The unconditional U.S.-Israel alliance, by design or drift, handed Israel a blank check that made war unavoidable, mirroring 1914 dynamics where patron fear of losing the ally led to disaster. Without conditionality, such alliances risk dragging great powers into conflicts not of their choosing.
@LauraRuHK
➡️ https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-blank-check-how-an-unconditional-alliance-took-america-to-war-in-iran/
Su Douyin, la versione domestica di TikTok, i cinesi prendono in giro la "Preghiera dello Studio Ovale" impersonando Trump e la sua corte dei miracoli. @LauraRuHK ➡️https://www.douyin.com/search/%20%22%E5%8D%8E%E7%9B%9B%E9%A1%BF%E7%A5%88%E7%A5%B7%20%E6%A8%A1%E4%BB%BF?aid=aa21b8df-69b1-4e6a-9ad1-fa17cba4c834&modal_id=7615875857273645987&type=general
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Theatre of the absurd On March 11 the UN Security Council—Resolution 2817 (2026)— condemned Iran for "egregious attacks" on Gulf states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) and Jordan, as well as threats to international navigation. It passed with 13 votes in favor, 0 against, and 2 abstentions (China and Russia). The resolution notably omitted any mention of the preceding U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, framing Iran's missile/drone barrages as the primary breach of international law and threat to peace and security. It demanded an immediate halt to Iranian attacks and reaffirmed the targeted states' right to self-defense. This outcome followed a failed Russian alternative draft calling for an immediate cessation of all hostilities, which garnered only 4 yes votes (Russia, China, Pakistan, Somalia), 2 no (U.S., Latvia), and 9 abstentions.
Russian representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia described the vote on the resolution drafted by Bahrain as "theatre of the absurd". Indeed. Iran, a victim of U.S.-Israel aggression, was condemned for striking U.S. military facilities and infrastructure. They are legitimate targets within Iran's right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter. Washington ignored the repeated requests of Arab States not to use their territory to conduct military operations against Iran. Instead, Washington is actively using its military bases in the monarchies of the Persian Gulf for offensive purposes. Nebenzia explained: It is no secret for anyone that the US base in Bahrain is the headquarters and the “nerve center” of the US Fifth Fleet, which is the main strike force against Iran. The US Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia is the main maintenance point for the US air force in the region. The largest military air base, Al Udeid, located in Qatar, could be used not only as a major element of the US and NATO global air defense system, but also for deploying strike fighters, bombers, and refueling planes, as well as for suppressing air defense and target acquisition. The Al Dhafra base in the UAE is also very suitable for these purposes and for gathering intelligence. A significant role in military operations against Iran is also being played by US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Iraq. All of this was mentioned by Iran when justifying its strikes on US military facilities in Arab countries."
@LauraRuHK
More evidence of U.S. strategic overextension and miscalculation. South Korean government sources confirmed that U.S. Army MIM-104 Patriot long range air defence systems and THAAD Missile Defence Systems are being deployed from South Korea to the Middle East to replenish losses inflicted by Iran counterstrikes.
▪️South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said at a meeting on Tuesday that while South Korea expressed its opposition to the USFK withdrawing air defense weapons for its own military needs, the Asian country was not able to fully enforce its position. @LauraRuHK
➡️https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-withdrawing-patriot-skorea-redeploy-iran
➡️https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-withdrawing-thaad-skorea-replenish-iran
China’s military on Wednesday warned the United States against allowing artificial intelligence (AI) to “determine life and death” in warfare, as a dispute between the Pentagon and AI firm Anthropic highlighted growing tensions over military use of the technology.
Speaking at a regular briefing in Beijing, defence ministry spokesman Jiang Bin said the “unrestricted application of AI by the military could erode ethical constraints and accountability in wars and risk a dangerous technological runaway”.
His remarks came in response to a question referencing reports that the US was pressing domestic technology companies to allow broader military use of their AI systems, and that it had already deployed such tools in operations involving Iran and Venezuela.
(Source: SCMP) @LauraRuHK
Il New York Times afferma che Trump e il suo team hanno gravemente sottovalutato la volontà e la capacità dell’Iran di intensificare la risposta economica e militare, trattando il conflitto come contenibile piuttosto che esistenziale per Teheran. Avevano ipotizzato che le ripercussioni sarebbero state minori e di breve durata, ma la risposta iraniana ha bloccato la navigazione nel Golfo, fatto impennare i prezzi globali del petrolio, aumentato i costi della benzina negli Stati Uniti e costretto Washington a risposte scomposte e improvvisate, senza un chiaro piano.
L’articolo ha evidenziato errori di calcolo cruciali:
▪️ la sottovalutazione dei rischi economici
▪️ la mancata previsione di un blocco totale della navigazione
▪️ preparazioni tardive o assenti
▪️ nessuna strategia coerente per riaprire in sicurezza lo stretto di Hormuz
▪️ la sottostima della determinazione iraniana: gli avvertimenti sulla probabile ritorsione sono stati ignorati, confidando eccessivamente che colpi alla leadership o la “decapitazione del regime” avrebbero aperto la strada a successori pragmatici. Invece, l’Iran ha lanciato attacchi diffusi con missili e droni e sfruttato i colli di bottiglia energetici.
▪️ comunicazione e pianificazione incoerenti.
🔺 La ricerca di vie d’uscita dal conflitto è diventata urgente dal fine settimana, con l’impennata dei prezzi globali del petrolio e il consumo massiccio di munizioni da parte degli Stati Uniti.
Funzionari del Pentagono hanno dichiarato in recenti briefing a porte chiuse al Congresso che l’esercito ha consumato 5,6 miliardi di dollari di munizioni nei primi due giorni di guerra. “È una quantità e un ritmo di consumo molto più elevati di quanto fosse stato reso pubblico.”
🔺 Secondo il NYT, all’interno dell’amministrazione cresce il pessimismo per la mancanza di una strategia chiara da parte di Trump per concludere la guerra, ma i funzionari temono di dirlo apertamente al presidente, che continua a proclamare il successo totale dell'operazione… E mentre le perdite umane, materiali ed economiche aumentano, l’hybris di Washington si scontra con la resistenza eroica dell’Iran. @LauraRuHK➡️ https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/us/politics/how-trump-miscalculated-iran-response.html
The New York Times says Trump and his team severely misjudged Iran's willingness and ability to escalate economically and militarily, treating the conflict as containable rather than existential for Tehran. They assumed disruptions would be short-lived but Iran's retaliation has halted Gulf shipping, spiked global oil prices, triggered higher U.S. gasoline costs, and forced frantic, ad-hoc U.S. responses without a clear contingency plan. The article highlighted key miscalculations:▪️the dismissal of economic risks ▪️the failure to anticipate a full shipping standstill▪️delayed or absent preparations ▪️ no coherent strategy for safely reopening the strait ▪️underestimation of Iran's resolve: warnings about retaliation were ignored in favor of overconfidence that regime decapitation or leadership strikes would yield pragmatic successors. Instead, Iran launched widespread missile/drone attacks and leveraged energy chokepoints.
▪️Inconsistent messaging and planning.
🔺The search for pathways out of the war has gained urgency since the weekend, as global oil prices surge and as the U.S. burns through costly munitions.
Pentagon officials said in recent closed-door briefings on Capitol Hill that the military used up $5.6 billion of munitions in the first two days of the war alone. “That is a far larger amount and munitions burn rate than had been publicly disclosed.” 🔺According to the NYT, officials inside the administration are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the lack of a clear strategy by Trump to finish the war, but they are afraid to voice that directly to the president, who has repeatedly claimed that the war is a complete success...And as human, material and economic casualties keep growing, Washington hubris crashes against Iran's heroic resistance. @LauraRuHK
➡️https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/us/politics/how-trump-miscalculated-iran-response.html
Ricordate quando nel 2022 il tiggi' della RAI spacciava le immagini di un videogioco per riprese del cielo sopra Kiev? Anche i canali televisivi israeliani hanno la stessa brutta abitudine. Per convincere i suoi spettatori che i bombardieri americani B‑2 sfrecciavano liberamente sopra l’Iran.
Channel 12, il canale di informazione più seguito in Israele, domenica ha mandato in onda un filmato tratto da Digital Combat Simulator World, disponibile su YouTube e caricato oltre tre anni fa.
Il video, con filtro verde da visore notturno, mostrava un bombardiere stealth accompagnato da caccia, con una seconda inquadratura apparentemente ripresa dalla cabina di un jet. (Fonte: Haaretz) @LauraRuHK
Israel's strict censorship is playing a big role in fueling the wildest fake news about Israeli politicians and strike impacts. It's basically pouring gasoline on the rumor mill. There's an almost total information blackout on the real effects of Iranian missile and drone strikes inside Israel.
After a week of targeted hits that took out key radar installations, early warning systems, and parts of air defense networks (with some reports noting degraded capabilities and a sharp drop in interception rates in certain barrages), we can reasonably assume Iran scored solid successes on those priorities. Israeli air defenses appear to be faltering under sustained pressure: fewer intercepts in some waves, more leaks through to urban areas, and visible strain on systems like Iron Dome and Arrow.
All major legal news outlets operating in Israel are de facto subject to military censorship—the IDF censor can (and does) block live broadcasts of intercepts, images of impact sites, damage assessments, or anything that might reveal vulnerabilities. If foreign media violate this censorship they risk losing accreditation, fines, or worse. This creates huge gaps: no clear visuals from Tel Aviv or other hit zones, no real-time confirmation of casualties or infrastructure damage beyond vague "light injuries" or "interceptions." In that vacuum, you get fake reports of Netanyahu fleeing the country or being assassinated, his brother dead in a family home strike, Ben-Gvir's house on fire from missiles (debunked as hoaxes with old and AI images), mass politician deaths, or exaggerated "Dimona breach" claims.
People desperate for any scrap of info fill the void with speculation, recycled footage, or outright inventions that go mega-viral on social media before anyone can fact-check those claims. But how do you fact-check something when you have no access to the situation on the ground? It's a vicious cycle: censorship breeds distrust, cynicism, and reliance on unverified sources. The less transparent the picture, the more absurd the rumors get.
So, what can you do?
Check claims. If you read something on social media but no Iranian official media outlet reported it, wait for confirmation before sharing the news. None of the egregious examples of fake news i mentioned was reported by reputable Iranian media. In the fog of war even Iranian media may be tempted to massage the truth, but unlike influencers and wannabe analysts they won't go as far as making shit up just to get a few likes. @LauraRuHK
Il Ministro degli Esteri iraniano avverte:
Sono passati nove giorni dall’inizio dell’Operazione Epic Mistake: i prezzi del petrolio sono raddoppiati e tutte le materie prime stanno schizzando alle stelle. Sappiamo che gli Stati Uniti stanno complottando contro i nostri siti petroliferi e nucleari, nella speranza di contenere un enorme shock inflazionistico. L’Iran è pienamente preparato.
E anche noi abbiamo molte sorprese in serbo.
L'impatto economico dell’espansione di questa guerra al livello delle infrastrutture, nella regione e nel mondo, saranno vasti e duraturi. I prezzi del petrolio potrebbero restare a tre cifre per un periodo prolungato.
La paralisi dell' economia globale è il probabile esito di questo conflitto. La politica del #Israel_First non farà precipitare soltanto l’America, ma rischia di coinvolgere l’intero pianeta.
Yesterday the Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the modern world has lost what used to be called international law, and it is now unclear how anyone can be called upon to comply with it if it effectively no longer exists.
"Unfortunately, we have all lost what we call international law. Frankly speaking, I do not even understand now how anyone can be urged to follow the norms and principles of international law. It effectively no longer exists. De jure it exists, but de facto it no longer does," Peskov said.
"Frankly speaking, it is unlikely that anyone can now say what law has replaced the [disappeared] international law. One can only, you know, speculate about it from a political science perspective, but no one will provide a clear definition," he added. (Source: TASS) @LauraRuHK
Israel's actions in Gaza have set a "global norm" for extermination as a weapon of war.
We witnessed international inaction despite UN commissions concluding that Israel had committed a genocide in 2025. The consequences of Israel's impunity are profound and far-reaching. By normalizing atrocities such as the bombardment of civilians, forcible displacement, and blockade-induced starvation, the Pandora's Box has been opened.
At certain junctures in history, the significance of events lies not only in the violence itself but in the precedents they set and rules rewritten afterward.
The joint U.S.–Israeli assault on Iran culminating in the assassination of its highest political authority, the indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure mark such a moment of depraved atrocity. It is not simply another war in the Middle East, but yet another step towards the abyss of inhumanity. Tehran has been plunged into an environmental and humanitarian crisis when USrael targeted oil storage and fuel facilities releasing massive amounts of toxic substances into the air. Thick black smoke blanketed the city, black rain fell on residents, fires spread to sewage systems...it was truly apocalyptic.
This act of chemical warfare against Iranian citizens is endangering lives far beyond immediate impacts. The resulting catastrophe will not remain confined within Iran's borders, potentially spreading regionally through air pollution and fallout.
The impunity seen in Gaza has allowed the Zionist axis to deepen global cynicism, fostering a world where inhumanity isn't an exception but the new normal.
If sovereignty and the prohibition on unilateral force collapse, the first long‑term victims will be the very powers striving to curb Western dominance, exposed to a world where might alone dictates the rules. History demonstrates that once international norms are broken, they rarely return to their previous form. @LauraRuHK