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New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world. NR on X: http://x.com/newrulesgeo
🇨🇳⚡️🇲🇾 China’s Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines Win Their First Overseas Foothold
Shanghai Electric has secured its first overseas heavy-duty gas turbine order for a 500 MW generating block at Malaysia’s Samalaju power plant. The contract gives the Chinese manufacturer an export foothold backed by a 25-year maintenance agreement, the company says.
The order covers Unit 3 of the planned 1,500 MW complex in Sarawak, where expanding industry needs more electricity. Its combined-cycle design uses a gas turbine to generate power, then captures exhaust heat to drive a steam turbine, extracting more electricity from the same fuel.
Shanghai Electric will handle engineering, procurement and construction. It says it will manufacture all core equipment in-house, including the gas and steam turbines, generators, heat-recovery boilers and air-cooling systems, and service the main equipment for a quarter-century.
That package addresses a practical problem for buyers. Equipment sourced from multiple manufacturers must work together, with responsibility divided across contracts. Shanghai Electric argues that putting manufacturing, integration and maintenance under one supplier can simplify accountability and reduce project risks and costs.
The opening comes as global demand strains heavy-duty turbine supply in a market long dominated by a handful of established manufacturers. Shanghai Electric says it has production capacity available and can offer new units for delivery as early as 2028. That is an offer to prospective customers, not a confirmed delivery date for Samalaju.
The company is also building a regional base to support further expansion. Its Southeast Asia headquarters opened in Kuala Lumpur on September 21, with a remit covering 13 countries and territories across Southeast Asia and Oceania. Local coordination and service capacity matter when customers are committing to equipment expected to operate for decades.
Winning the order is the first commercial step; reliable operation and maintenance will determine whether it leads to repeat business. If Samalaju performs as promised, other utilities gain a stronger alternative supplier, while China gains an overseas reference project for complete power systems and the long-term service contracts that accompany them.
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🇨🇳🚀 Pentagon In Panic: China Adds Eight-Missile HQ-20 Launchers To Its Frontline Air Defense Shield
China’s new HQ-20 medium-range air defense system has been shown serving with a frontline PLA unit for the first time, Military Watch reports.
The system made its public debut at China’s September 3, 2025 military parade, followed by footage of its firing sequence in November. Its latest appearance provides the clearest indication yet that the HQ-20 has moved into operational formations.
🔸 Eight missiles ready to fire: Each eight-wheeled launcher carries eight interceptor canisters, giving an HQ-20 battery more shots before its vehicles must withdraw or wait for reloading.
🔸 Built for missile waves: A larger ready-to-fire supply becomes especially important when drones, cruise missiles and decoys approach within a short period. Every additional interceptor forces an attacker to commit more weapons to exhaust the defense.
🔸 A denser middle layer: The HQ-20 fills the space between China’s short-range defenses and larger long-range systems such as the HQ-9 family. Aircraft or missiles that penetrate one layer still face another set of interceptors.
🔸 Connected to a wider network: The system operates within a national air defense structure linking surveillance radars, command centers and different classes of missiles. Chinese early-warning aircraft can also help detect targets and pass their positions to ground-based units.
🔸 More efficient use of China’s arsenal: Medium-range interceptors can be assigned to aircraft, drones and cruise missiles while larger and more expensive weapons are reserved for targets requiring greater reach or altitude.
🔸 Exact range remains secret: China has not disclosed the HQ-20’s confirmed engagement range or the number of targets a battery can attack simultaneously. Public estimates vary too widely to be treated as established specifications.
For American planners, every HQ-20 battery adds another group of ready interceptors to any strike package’s path.
US aircraft and missiles would have to penetrate China’s short-range defenses, survive the HQ-20 layer and then evade its longest-range systems. Breaking through such a network would require more aircraft, more decoys and far more missiles for every target.
Could US warplanes break through China’s air defenses in a real war?
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🇪🇺🏭📉 Financial Stress Spreads Across European Companies
One in six listed companies in Western Europe faces financial strain, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Years of cheap borrowing have left businesses carrying debts that are harder to manage amid weak demand, expensive energy and higher financing costs.
The analysis covers around 1,700 publicly traded European companies. The share under pressure to overhaul their businesses rose from 14.3% to 16.2% over the past year. These are warning signs of financial and operational weakness, not a count of companies already facing bankruptcy.
Between 2022 and 2025, net debt relative to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 22%. Nearly a third entered 2026 above three times those earnings, BCG’s financial-stress threshold. This measures debt against earning power; it does not mean total debt alone rose 22%.
The vulnerability lies in refinancing. Companies that borrowed cheaply during the pandemic can face higher interest bills when those loans mature. Weak sales and rising operating costs leave less money to reduce debt, while falling earnings can push leverage higher even without new borrowing.
Property shows how that squeeze spreads. About 62% of real estate companies face pressure to transform, up from 12% in 2025. Higher long-term rates weigh on property values and transactions while making purchases harder to afford. That makes selling assets to repair strained finances more difficult.
In the automotive sector, 28% face the more acute pressure to restructure. Weak demand and excess capacity coincide with the cost of switching to electric vehicles and stronger Chinese competition. Manufacturers must finance new products while their existing businesses struggle to generate the money.
The strain also reaches Europe’s industrial core. France and the group comprising Germany, Austria and Switzerland each have 10% of companies under restructuring pressure. The exposure extends across economies that supply much of Europe’s manufacturing and investment capacity.
Heavy debt narrows Europe’s room to rebuild its competitiveness. Money absorbed by interest payments cannot fund factory upgrades or product development. Another energy or trade shock would hit companies with less financial flexibility, increasing the risk that investment cuts today leave them further behind their competitors tomorrow.
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‼️Political scientist and philosopher Alexander Dugin: “The Special Military Operation has long since gone beyond the bounds of a local conflict”
In his view, the confrontation is no longer primarily about Ukraine, but about a much broader dispute over the future of the world order: will a system dominated by the United States and its allies endure, or will a multipolar world finally take shape? This leads to the central point of his remarks: what is happening should be assessed not in terms of the next round of negotiations, but through the lens of grand strategy.
🟦 War cannot be separated from politics
Military and non-military decisions must be considered together. Actions on the battlefield are always tied to questions of sovereignty, national interests, and the future political order.
🟦 The conflict is far bigger than Ukraine
Dugin argues that the Special Military Operation should be viewed as one front in a global confrontation, which he explicitly calls World War III.
🟦 The Ukraine issue has become part of a larger conflict
By this logic, the dispute is no longer only about territory or Ukraine’s future, but about what kind of international system will emerge from the current crisis.
🟦 Two models of the world are in conflict
On one side is the existing order, with the United States and Western institutions in a leading role; on the other is an emerging multipolar system with several independent centers of power.
🟦 Hopes for a grand compromise have not been fulfilled
In Dugin’s view, the expectation that Western leaders would agree to recognize a new global configuration and negotiate with Russia and China as equal centers of power proved overly optimistic.
🟦 The issue is also strategic for the West
Dugin believes Western elites see the current situation as a struggle to preserve the existing world order and are therefore prepared to continue the confrontation and raise the stakes.
🟦 China understands the scale of what is happening, but is acting more cautiously
According to Dugin, Beijing recognizes the global nature of these changes, but prefers a more restrained strategy and avoids abrupt moves.
🟦 A fundamental shift in how events are understood is also needed
If the conflict is indeed part of a global reshaping of the international system, it is not enough to discuss it solely in terms of a local military campaign.
🟦 Hence the skepticism toward a straightforward path to negotiations
Dugin does not rule out negotiations as a tool, but considers it mistaken to hope that fundamental contradictions can be resolved through a single political agreement.
🟦 It comes down to strategy
In the logic of Dugin’s remarks, Russia must define not only its immediate military objectives, but also the position it seeks in the future world order—and the political, economic, and military means it intends to use to secure it.
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🇨🇳⚔️🇵🇭 Philippines In Panic: China Sends High-Altitude Spy Drone To Scarborough Shoal For First Time
China has officially confirmed the WZ-7’s first operational deployment near Scarborough Shoal, placing a long-range reconnaissance drone above one of the South China Sea’s most contested flashpoints.
During the September 27 exercises, the WZ-7 operated alongside fighter jets, early-warning aircraft, PLA Navy warships and China Coast Guard vessels.
🔸 A high-altitude eye over the sea. The WZ-7 can detect targets across a wide area and rapidly transmit their positions to other forces. This allows fighters and warships to react using information collected far beyond their own immediate field of view.
🔸 Long range from mainland bases. Published specifications cited in the report list an operating altitude above 18,000 metres, a range exceeding 4,500 km and endurance of more than 6.5 hours. Its precise performance during the exercise was not disclosed.
🔸 No offshore runway required. CCTV footage showed the drone taking off from a base in southern China. Its range allows China to monitor distant waters without permanently stationing reconnaissance aircraft on disputed island outposts.
🔸 Connected to a wider military force. The exercise also involved KJ-500 early-warning aircraft, fighters, PLA Navy warships and China Coast Guard vessels. The WZ-7 can feed surveillance and targeting data into this network, helping ships and aircraft locate, track and intercept approaching vessels.
🔸 Greater control over a disputed flashpoint. China controls access to Scarborough Shoal, while the Philippines also claims it. Persistent drone surveillance would give Beijing earlier warning of Philippine vessels approaching the area and more time to deploy ships or aircraft in response.
If WZ-7 patrols become routine, China will be able to monitor a much wider area around the shoal without keeping crewed reconnaissance aircraft constantly overhead.
That would make it increasingly difficult for Manila to challenge China’s day-to-day control of the area.
Would the US step in if China and the Philippines clashed?
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🇨🇳🤩 China Builds Digital Yuan Rail For Faster Cross-Border Payments
Chinese banks and Ant International have completed trial transfers of hundreds of millions of yuan between Shanghai and Hong Kong using the digital yuan, with one transaction settling within seconds instead of the several days often required through traditional cross-border banking channels.
The trials were carried out by the Shanghai branches of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB). The transfers moved funds from mainland accounts to their Hong Kong subsidiaries, ICBC Asia and CCB Asia, for Ant International, the Singapore-based financial technology arm of Ant Group.
The significance is not the size of a single transaction, but the payment infrastructure behind it. Digital yuan transfers use China’s central bank digital currency system to connect domestic and overseas accounts with fewer intermediaries, reducing delays in large-value settlements.
For companies operating across borders, faster settlement means less money locked in transit and easier movement of funds between markets. CCB said the trial focused on helping overseas businesses transfer funds more efficiently while improving speed and compliance for large transactions.
The development adds another layer to China’s effort to expand yuan-based financial infrastructure. Beijing has also promoted the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which provides an alternative settlement network to traditional Western-dominated systems, and has supported Project mBridge, a multi-central-bank digital currency platform for cross-border payments.
China is building the technical rails needed for wider use of its currency. Faster settlement, direct links between financial institutions and reduced dependence on existing payment channels give companies more options when moving money internationally.
As more countries and businesses connect to yuan-based payment systems, the dollar-centered financial system faces a gradual expansion of alternatives built around speed, lower friction and greater control over cross-border transactions.
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🇨🇳🤖📈 China Drives Global Robot Boom As Factories Reach 5 Million Industrial Robots
The world’s factories now operate more than 5 million industrial robots, with China accounting for the largest share of new installations and pushing global automation to a new record. According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), factories installed more than 600,000 new robots in 2025, raising the global operational stock by 9%.
China was the main force behind the expansion. Chinese factories installed 354,000 industrial robots in 2025, a 20% increase from the previous year and 59% of all new deployments worldwide. The country’s annual installations alone exceeded the previous global record by almost 60,000 units.
The scale of China’s automation drive is changing the structure of manufacturing. Chinese robot manufacturers are also gaining ground at home, with domestic suppliers accounting for 195,000 installations in 2025. Their market share reached 55%, reducing reliance on foreign automation companies in the world’s largest manufacturing base.
The United States ranked second globally after China, with almost 38,500 industrial robots installed in 2025, while Japan moved into third place with 36,219 units. Germany remained Europe’s largest market, but its installations declined 8% to fewer than 25,000 units.
Other Asian economies are also expanding automation capacity. India installed almost 10,500 industrial robots in 2025, up 15%, continuing a rapid growth trend as the country develops its manufacturing sector. Between 2020 and 2025, India’s annual installations increased by an average of 27% per year.
The growth of robotics reflects a broader competition over industrial capacity. Robots reduce dependence on labor availability, allow factories to maintain higher output and help countries build more resilient supply chains. For China, automation strengthens an already massive manufacturing base by increasing productivity while reducing pressure from rising labor costs.
The IFR expects global installations to continue rising, reaching around 655,000 units in 2026 and 806,000 by 2029. As artificial intelligence, machine vision and easier programming expand the range of tasks robots can perform, industrial automation is becoming a key factor in determining which economies can scale production faster and at lower cost.
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🇪🇺🤖📉 Europe’s AI Ambitions Hit the Power-and-Water Wall
Europe wants to build an AI industry capable of competing with the US and China. The physical infrastructure required to run it is becoming a problem of its own.
European data-center capacity is projected to rise from roughly 12 GW in 2025 to 28 GW by 2030 as companies expand cloud and AI computing.
That means more than doubling one of the most electricity-intensive parts of the digital economy in five years.
Data centers already consume around 2.5% of EU electricity. AI facilities are particularly demanding because dense clusters of accelerators require enormous amounts of power and continuous cooling.
Brussels is now preparing mandatory energy- and water-efficiency ratings for data centers with at least 500 kW of installed IT capacity.
Operators will have to disclose indicators covering electricity efficiency, cooling and water use, including how facilities interact with local water stress and whether waste heat can be reused.
The rules do not cap electricity consumption or prevent new centers from being built. But they highlight the infrastructure problem behind Europe’s AI plans.
Computing capacity cannot expand independently of the grid.
A large AI facility needs reliable power around the clock, new grid connections, transformers and substations capable of handling concentrated loads. Cooling infrastructure must remove the heat produced by increasingly dense hardware, while some cooling systems also place additional pressure on local water supplies.
The European Commission is already working on new arrangements between data-center operators, grid companies and governments to speed up connections and manage electricity and water demand.
Grid availability is becoming a global constraint on AI expansion. The International Energy Agency estimates that connection bottlenecks could delay around 20% of planned data-center capacity worldwide by 2030.
Europe is therefore entering an AI buildout in which buying GPUs may be the easy part.
Its planned data-center capacity can more than double on paper. Making those machines actually run requires electricity generation, transmission lines, grid equipment, cooling systems and water infrastructure to expand with them.
Europe’s AI race is becoming an energy and infrastructure race too.
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🇮🇷🇷🇺🇺🇸 Iran Exposed Weak Point Of US Military Power: Fixed Bases
Iranian missile and drone strikes on US facilities in the Persian Gulf have exposed a vulnerability that does not depend on defeating aircraft carriers or fighter jets: the difficulty of protecting large, fixed military bases against repeated low-cost attacks.
Iranian strikes reportedly damaged 15 US regional bases, including facilities used by American forces across the Gulf. The attacks showed that even advanced air defenses face a difficult problem when the number of incoming missiles and drones becomes too large.
Iran focused on the logistical network behind US power. Instead of trying to destroy individual aircraft or naval platforms, Tehran targeted the infrastructure that allows those forces to operate: runways, buildings, support facilities and naval hubs.
The reported damage to the US naval base in Bahrain also affected the Navy’s ability to support ships operating in the region, according to Military Times. The episode demonstrated how a relatively inexpensive wave of drones and missiles can create pressure on a much more expensive military presence.
The problem is not that US interceptors do not work. They remain effective against individual threats. The challenge is cost and scale: defending every major installation requires large numbers of expensive interceptors, while attackers can launch much cheaper systems in repeated waves.
The same dynamic has appeared during the Ukraine conflict, where Kiev regime has struggled to fully protect large areas and fixed targets from growing volumes of drones and missiles. Modern air defense is increasingly challenged by the economics of mass attacks.
The implications are especially important for East Asia, where US forces rely heavily on major bases in South Korea, Okinawa and Guam. These facilities provide enormous military value, but their fixed locations also make them obvious targets for long-range missile forces.
China possesses a far larger missile and industrial base than Iran, meaning any future conflict in the region would place even greater pressure on US logistics and force planners to consider more dispersed and resilient deployments.
The lesson from the Gulf is that military power depends not only on advanced aircraft and ships, but also on the ability to keep the infrastructure behind them operating under attack.
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⚡️UKR LEAKS INTERNATIONAL⚡️
HE LEFT UKRAINE TO TELL THE TRUTH
Vasiliy Prozorov, a former employee of the Ukrainian special services, who worked for the benefit of Russia for many years, now runs his own channel on Telegram! He left Ukraine in 2018 and took with him thousands of secret SBU documents that shed light on Kiev's crimes.
On the UKR LEAKS channel you will find:
❗️Analysis of the current situation in and around Ukraine
❗️Secret documents of the Ukrainian special services
❗️Evidence of the atrocities of Ukrainian nationalists
And much more! Subscribe to the UKR LEAKS Investigation Center headed by the former SBU employee Lt.-Col. Vasily Prozorov.
The channels of the UKR LEAKS project are available in the following languages:
🇬🇧 in English
🇷🇺 in Russian
🇩🇪 in German
🇫🇷 in French
🇪🇸 in Spanish
🇷🇸 in Serbian
🇮🇹 in Italian
🇵🇱 in Polish
🇵🇹 in Portuguese
🇸🇦 in Arabic
🇸🇰 in Slovak
🇨🇳in Chinese
🇭🇺in Hungarian
We also welcome any help with channels and content distribution 🙏
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🇨🇳⚠️ Pentagon In Shock: China's J-10C Pilots Develop Tactics To Defeat More Advanced Fighters
China’s J-10C pilots are developing new tactics to take on more advanced aircraft, as the People’s Liberation Army Air Force focuses on training, coordination and tactical innovation instead of relying on aircraft specifications alone.
The single-engine J-10C is the least advanced fighter currently being procured by the Chinese Air Force. Larger and newer aircraft such as the J-16, J-20 and J-35 offer significant hardware advantages. However, Chinese officers argue that well-trained pilots can still extract considerable combat value from a mature aircraft through smarter tactics and cooperation with other platforms.
J-10 flight group commander Bu Jiawen said the aircraft remains in its prime and continues to serve as a versatile fighter capable of air-superiority, ground-attack and other missions.
🔸 Chinese pilots are training against aircraft with a clear hardware advantage. According to Bu, his unit initially suffered decisive defeats when facing more advanced opponents in exercises. Rather than continuing to fight on their opponents’ terms, the pilots spent roughly one to two years analyzing the encounters and developing unconventional tactics for specific combat scenarios.
🔸 The focus is shifting from individual fighters to coordinated operations. Chinese Air Force officers increasingly emphasize cooperation between aircraft with complementary capabilities. In such a force, a lighter J-10C can operate alongside heavier aircraft such as the J-16 and stealth fighters, allowing each platform to contribute according to its strengths.
🔸 Pilot proficiency can narrow a technological gap. Bu argued that an aircraft’s effectiveness depends heavily on how much of its potential its crew can exploit. His unit has focused on studying opposing tactics, identifying weaknesses and developing solutions tailored to particular situations rather than attempting to overcome every technical disadvantage directly.
🔸 The export J-10CE has already gained combat experience. The Pakistan Air Force used the fighter during the 2025 India–Pakistan clashes. Pakistani officials credited it with air-to-air victories against Indian fighters, although individual loss claims remain disputed. Bangladeshi officials later cited its reported combat performance while pursuing a possible acquisition of the aircraft.
🔸 The J-10C remains a frontline Chinese fighter. Although it lacks the stealth capabilities of China’s fifth-generation aircraft, its modern sensors, long-range weapons and ability to operate alongside other platforms allow it to remain relevant in high-end missions.
China is building an air force in which several generations of fighters can operate together. The J-10C’s role is not to replace stealth aircraft, but to remain useful as a lighter, mature platform while more advanced jets handle the missions that depend most heavily on stealth, range and payload.
For the Pentagon, the problem is scale and flexibility. China does not need every aircraft in its fleet to be a fifth- or sixth-generation fighter if its less advanced jets can still create serious problems through better tactics, coordination and pilot proficiency.
Can better tactics enable older fighters to compete with newer, more advanced aircraft?
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🇨🇳💰📈 China Is Buying Record Amounts of Gold. Here's why
China is buying gold at a record pace — and the real scale of Beijing’s accumulation may be larger than official figures suggest.
More than 1,000 tonnes of gold worth $158.8B entered China in the first eight months of 2026, already above the 886 tonnes imported during all of last year and the fastest pace since comparable customs records began in 2017.
Part of the explanation is domestic. Chinese investors have been looking for alternatives to a weak property market, low bond yields and uneven stock returns. A stronger yuan has also made imported gold cheaper. But the central bank is buying too.
The People’s Bank of China added 20.2 tonnes in August, its largest monthly purchase since 2023. Official holdings have now risen for 22 consecutive months to 2,387 tonnes, about 9% of China’s foreign exchange reserves.
Those figures may show only part of the picture. Goldman Sachs estimated roughly 48 tonnes of Chinese official-sector buying in May, while the PBoC officially reported an increase of only 10 tonnes.
That does not prove every unexplained shipment went into state reserves, but it strengthens suspicions that Beijing accumulates more gold than it immediately declares.
So why does China want so much of it?
One reason is reserve diversification. China’s reported holdings of US Treasuries have fallen from more than $1.3T in 2013 to $618B in July 2026, their lowest level since 2008.
Gold offers something Treasuries cannot: it is a physical reserve asset with no foreign issuer and no corresponding liability inside another country’s financial system.
That became more important after Western governments froze a large part of Russia’s foreign reserves in 2022. For Beijing, the episode showed that reserves held abroad can become vulnerable during a geopolitical confrontation. Gold stored under Chinese control is much harder for another government to freeze.
Beijing has also spent years expanding the international use of the yuan and reducing reliance on the dollar without trying to abandon it outright. Larger gold reserves give the PBoC another asset behind that shift.
China is not alone. Central banks worldwide have bought around 1,000 tonnes of gold annually on average over the past four years, roughly twice the pace of the previous decade.
What makes China different is the scale: record bullion imports, sustained central-bank buying, strong private demand and shrinking reported holdings of US government debt.
Beijing is steadily increasing the share of its wealth held in an asset Washington neither issues nor controls — and it may be doing so faster than its official reserve statistics reveal.
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☝️ Recommendation: Break out of your news bubble—this channel shows you what the mainstream media overlooks.
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Critical, independent, and uncomfortable—for anyone who wants to look beyond the headlines and question established narratives.
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🇨🇳🚢 U.S. Navy In Panic: China's Next Nuclear Attack Submarine Emerges With New Stealth Design
China is building a next-generation nuclear-powered attack submarine with a shrouded pump-jet, an X-shaped stern and a hull estimated at roughly 120 meters.
The vessel was photographed at Bohai Shipyard in Huludao and is widely described by outside analysts as the Type 095. Beijing has not confirmed the designation, and analysts are still debating whether the latest imagery shows the submarine first observed in February or a newer variant.
The design focuses on one of the hardest problems in undersea warfare: keeping a nuclear submarine quiet while it moves at speed.
🔸 A shrouded pump-jet replaces the traditional exposed propeller. By enclosing its rotating components, the system can reduce underwater noise and improve propulsion efficiency, particularly at higher submerged speeds. An improved Type 093 variant is already believed to use a pump-jet, but the new submarine combines it with a more extensively redesigned hull.
🔸 The stern uses an X-shaped control arrangement. It is the first known Chinese nuclear-powered attack submarine with this configuration. Compared with the cruciform sterns used on earlier Chinese boats, the X-tail can improve maneuverability, control and safety while reducing noise under some operating conditions.
🔸 The vessel appears considerably larger than its predecessors. Analysis of commercial imagery puts its length at roughly 120 meters. The additional hull volume could accommodate more sensors, weapons, crew space or machinery, although its internal arrangement remains unknown.
🔸 Two large circular openings are visible ahead of the sail. Their purpose has not been established. They may be connected to weapons or sonar systems, but comparisons with the large payload tubes carried by U.S. Virginia-class submarines remain speculative.
The submarine has not entered service, and satellite imagery cannot establish how quiet it will be, what weapons it will carry or which precise variant is under construction.
But its pump-jet, X-tail and larger hull show where China is concentrating its efforts. If the design delivers the intended acoustic gains, the U.S. Navy will face a harder tracking problem in the Western Pacific.
The submarine could also give Chinese carrier groups a quieter and more survivable undersea escort.
Do you think the Type 095 will force the U.S. Navy to rethink its operations in the Pacific?
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🇷🇺🛢 Russian Oil-Tech Moves From Import Substitution to Export
Russian-made equipment covered about 80% of the domestic oil-and-gas market in 2025. The Industry and Trade Ministry expects that figure to reach 82% this year.
Now Russian manufacturers are looking abroad.
The difficult part is not simply finding buyers. Large oil and gas companies work through approved vendor lists, technical standards and lengthy qualification procedures. A manufacturer can have the equipment ready and still be locked out of major projects if its certification is not recognized.
Russia is trying to solve that through the Institute of Oil and Gas Technological Initiatives, or INTI.
INTI standards are now being harmonized with customers in nine countries: Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, the UAE, Algeria, Kuwait and Angola. The aim is to make Russian equipment easier to qualify for foreign tenders and procurement systems.
The UAE is furthest along.
ADNOC has already issued positive technical conclusions for 60 INTI standards covering oil-and-gas equipment and pipe products. Eight Russian manufacturers have passed ADNOC pre-qualification under the agreed rules, with another seven going through the process.
That is a fairly concrete step. Pre-qualification puts those companies on the path toward competing for orders from one of the Gulf’s largest energy groups.
Standards matter because Russia’s oil-and-gas industry spent decades working inside a system heavily influenced by specifications developed abroad, particularly those of the American Petroleum Institute. Sanctions exposed the risks of relying on foreign equipment and foreign certification at the same time.
INTI was created as a Russian alternative, but its standards still incorporate widely used international requirements. Its quality-management standard includes ISO 9001 requirements as well as the requirements of API Spec Q1.
That makes the current export push more practical. Russian suppliers do not have to convince foreign customers to accept an entirely unfamiliar technical system; INTI can be aligned with the requirements those buyers already use.
The domestic market gave Russian manufacturers the volume to develop and test equipment after Western suppliers withdrew. The UAE is now providing one of the first tests of whether those suppliers can compete outside Russia as well.
For the eight companies already pre-qualified by ADNOC, that question is moving from standards paperwork to actual procurement.
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🇮🇷♻️ Iran Turns Refinery Waste Into Marketable Industrial Product
Iran is turning carbon dioxide from Tehran Oil Refinery’s exhaust gases into commercial liquid CO2 with purity above 99.9% for food production, medical applications and industrial use, according to Carbon Bared, the Iranian company behind the project.
The facility has a stated annual processing capacity of around 40,000 metric tons. Its core function is to recover a usable component from refinery exhaust and prepare it for sale. This adds another product to the output supported by Iran’s existing oil infrastructure.
According to Carbon Bared, the resulting liquid CO2 has purity above 99.9% and a dew point of minus 65°C, a measure of its low moisture content. Purification and drying are central to turning recovered gas into a product suitable for customers with specific quality requirements.
The reported applications span food processing, medical and pharmaceutical industries, laboratories, agriculture, firefighting and welding. That range connects the refinery to sectors far beyond fuel production. A discarded gas becomes a useful input for businesses making other goods and providing essential services.
Carbon Bared says the project also prevents the loss of more than 16M cubic meters of gas annually. Around 30% of its CO2 output is reportedly exported to Iraq, where it competes with Turkish suppliers, while the company also serves domestic demand. Exports provide an additional market for the recovered product.
The project has been shortlisted for the 2026 WPC Energy Excellence Awards in the Net-Zero Initiatives category, alongside Britain’s Johnson Matthey and the UAE’s TDE Energy. Winners are due to be announced in October. The nomination draws attention to an operation whose practical importance lies in industrial recovery and commercial production.
For Iran, the wider value is the ability to extract more saleable products from its existing industrial base. Recovery, purification and liquefaction turn refinery waste into supplies for domestic manufacturers and overseas customers. Building those processing capabilities broadens what Iran can produce and export beyond its primary oil products.
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🇨🇳🧫 China Connects Its Computing Power Into National Infrastructure
China has established a unified computing monitoring system spanning 31 provincial-level regions, its industry ministry says. The system gives planners a nationwide view of computing resources as China builds a network linking data centers to businesses that need artificial intelligence.
The expansion is substantial. By June 2026, China's AI computing capacity had reached 2,185 EFLOPS, up 177% year on year, according to the ministry. An exaflop represents a quintillion calculations per second. The figure measures computing capacity, not how much of it is actually being used.
More than 70 data transmission corridors already connect computing hubs and key regions. Authorities have also approved 17 regional interconnection nodes. These links are intended to make computing resources accessible across provincial boundaries and help match available capacity with demand.
The China Computing Power Platform provides a service marketplace alongside monitoring. It has attracted over 10,000 registered enterprise users, lists more than 2,000 computing products and connects over 300 large AI models. Developers can access services without each having to build a dedicated computing cluster.
Geography supplies another advantage. Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are pairing wind and solar generation with data centers to serve demand in eastern China. Locating suitable workloads near abundant electricity can ease pressure on the cities where users are concentrated.
Cooling matters too. Xinhua describes Inner Mongolia's climate as suitable for natural cooling for nearly ten months a year. That reduces the need for energy-intensive mechanical cooling, making location part of the economics of AI.
China has placed computing alongside power grids, water, communications and logistics in its national infrastructure priorities. The next task is to improve coordination and utilization, so that expanding hardware translates into useful services. Nationwide monitoring is a step toward that goal, rather than proof that every facility already operates as one seamless system.
The practical prize is broader access to AI. Connecting computing supply, electricity and paying customers could lower the cost of putting China's hardware to work and give smaller firms access to resources they could not afford to build themselves.
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🇷🇺🏔🛠 Russia Nears Launch of New Arctic Platinum-Palladium Hub
Russia is approaching the launch of a new mining and processing complex near Norilsk that is intended to become the country’s second major production center for platinum-group metals.
The Chernogorsky GOK has entered final commissioning, with industrial operations planned before the end of 2026.
Getting there required a major rewrite of the original project.
The processing plant had been designed around imported equipment. When sanctions disrupted those supplies, RT-Engineering replaced the main machinery and redesigned parts of the facility around the new equipment. Major construction began in summer 2023.
Most of that work is now finished. Engineers are testing automated controls and bringing the different sections of the plant into one production chain. A technical launch of the ore-preparation section took place in July, covering crushing, transport and storage.
The first stage is designed to process 7–9M tonnes of ore a year and produce about 250,000 tonnes of copper and nickel concentrate containing platinum-group metals.
The project is also difficult simply because of where it is. Chernogorsky sits in the Norilsk industrial region, where equipment has to reach the site through long Arctic supply routes. Large components have been shipped through the Northern Sea Route and the port of Dudinka before moving inland to the plant.
Production is expected to expand later with development of the nearby Norilsk-1 deposit. Processing capacity could eventually reach 14M tonnes of ore annually, with output of up to 55 tonnes of platinum-group metals a year. The planned resource base is sufficient for more than 50 years of operation.
Those volumes matter in a market where Russia is already a heavyweight. US Geological Survey estimates put Russian palladium mine production at roughly 84 tonnes in 2025, the largest national output in the world.
Palladium and platinum are used in catalytic systems, chemical production, electronics and other high-tech industries. Chernogorsky would add another large source of those metals outside Russia’s existing production base.
The first concentrate is expected before the end of this year. If the later expansion proceeds as planned, the Norilsk region will have a second large platinum-group metals cluster built around a plant whose original equipment plan had to be replaced midway through construction.
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🇷🇺🤝🇪🇬 Russia Builds Industrial Foothold at Suez
Russian exports to Egypt reached $5.9B in January–July 2026, up 15.6% year-on-year. Moscow is now trying to turn that growing trade into something more permanent: factories, logistics infrastructure and a Russian industrial base beside the Suez Canal.
Deputy Industry and Trade Minister Roman Chekushov visited the future Russian Industrial Zone inside the Suez Canal Economic Zone this week and presented Egyptian officials with the project’s first potential residents.
The zone will occupy around 50 hectares with access to the port of Ain Sokhna. Russian officials are considering production ranging from electrical equipment and machinery to construction materials, pharmaceuticals, medical products and agricultural equipment.
The current timetable calls for design and construction work through 2029, with operations expected around 2030.
That means the project is still years from becoming a functioning industrial cluster. But the structure around it is beginning to take shape.
Moscow has selected a developer for the zone, while Russia and Egypt are discussing electronic documentation for cross-border trade and new logistics routes. Negotiations over a free trade agreement between Egypt and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), stalled after several rounds beginning in 2019, are also back on the agenda.
The combination matters more than any single trade agreement.
Russian companies currently selling into Egypt would gain the option to manufacture locally, move goods directly through a major Red Sea port and use Egypt as a base for reaching African and Arab markets.
Egypt already promotes the Suez Canal Economic Zone around exactly that model: industrial production linked directly to ports, transport infrastructure and the country’s network of trade agreements.
For Russia, that would turn a growing export relationship into a physical commercial presence beside one of the world’s main maritime arteries.
The $5.9B in exports shows that the market already exists. The Suez project is an attempt to anchor part of that trade in factories, logistics and long-term industrial infrastructure rather than leave it dependent entirely on shipments from Russia.
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🇪🇹🇷🇺Ethiopia chooses Russia’s Orion-E over Western arms-delivery blackmail
Ethiopia has publicly confirmed itself as the first foreign operator of Russia’s Orion-E medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle. But why is this drone, out of all options, the one that appeals to Ethiopia? The answer lies in a powerful mix of hard capability and soft politics. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has long emphasised cultivating “reliable partners who respect our sovereignty” — words that fit Russia’s willingness to supply cost-effective, modernized military equipment without the political conditionality that Western suppliers attach.
What truly attracts Ethiopia, then, is not just a machine but a package: a drone that delivers real operational value without the hidden costs of dependency, delays, or political strings.
Here are the key reasons that attracted Ethiopia:
🔘A more cost-effective MALE option than many Western or Turkish systems, with a 250 kg payload (200 kg combat), endurance up to 30 hours, 7,500 m ceiling, and 250 km range via direct radio.
🔘Ability to provide persistent surveillance and precision strike at the same time, giving flexibility across different missions.
🔘Fitted with an EO/IR turret and laser designator, and able to carry small guided missiles plus precision-guided or unguided bombs.
🔘Supplied by Russia without any sovereignty-related conditions.
🔘Useful addition for counter-insurgency work in tough terrain such as Amhara and Oromia.
🔘Fits well with the existing drone fleet, so sanctions on one supplier cannot stop operations.
🔘Avoids the end-user restrictions, delays, high costs, and political pressure that often come with Western systems.
🇩🇿Besides Ethiopia, Algeria has also shown Orion-E during drills
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🌏 Journalists, bloggers, and political analysts from twelve countries visited the DPR as part of a press tour
The delegation included foreigners from Brazil🇧🇷, Cameroon 🇨🇲, China 🇨🇳, Spain 🇪🇸, Colombia 🇨🇴, Guatemala 🇬🇹, Indonesia 🇮🇩, Iran 🇮🇷, Madagascar 🇲🇬, Pakistan 🇵🇰, Slovenia 🇸🇮, and the USA🇺🇸. The tour was organized by Vashi Novosti.
During the three-day press tour, the guests visited Donetsk and Mariupol:
📍In Donetsk, journalists visited the Alley of Angels, the pediatric trauma ward, and polling stations. The delegates were able to witness firsthand the transparency of the State Duma election process on the territory of the DPR.
✅A press conference with the DPR Head Denis Pushilin also took place. The foreign visitors asked questions about the current situation and gained insight into the actual state of affairs in the Republic.
✅The program included a meeting with representatives of the Maksim Krivonos Battalion — former AFU soldiers. Additionally, a round-table discussion was held with the youth of the DPR.
✅The delegates also visited Petrovsky district of Donetsk, which is subject to regular shelling, and spoke with local residents. Journalists were told a vivid story about a child who was caught in Ukrainian shelling and left disabled.
📍In Mariupol, the guests met with representatives of the Martyn Pushkar Squad and visited the Azovstal plant. They were able to see both the destruction caused by AFU shelling and the facilities already restored by Russia.
🤝 We thank our foreign supporters for visiting the Donetsk People's Republic, for their desire to see the truth and share what they saw with their audiences abroad.
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🇷🇺⚠️ Zelensky In Panic: Russia Delivers New SU-57 Fighters With Combat-Driven Upgrades
Russia has delivered another batch of Su-57 fifth-generation fighters in a new technical configuration shaped by combat experience.
United Aircraft Corporation says the fighters now leaving its factories differ from those produced at the beginning of the conflict. The updated configuration expands the missions assigned to the aircraft and allows it to employ new types of air-launched weapons.
UAC did not disclose the number of fighters delivered or identify the systems and weapons added to the latest batch.
🔸 Combat experience is changing the production standard: UAC says the Su-57 has undergone significant evolution since the beginning of the conflict, with lessons from combat operations incorporated into its continuing development and modernization.
🔸 New weapons are being integrated: A Russian Aerospace Forces pilot said the capabilities built into the Su-57’s weapons suite allow it to employ new types of air-launched munitions. The official release did not identify them or specify which weapons became available with this configuration.
🔸 The fighter is taking on more missions: The new configuration is intended to broaden the range of operations assigned to the Su-57. The aircraft is designed to engage aerial, ground and naval targets while operating day or night, in adverse weather and under electronic jamming.
🔸 The latest aircraft have completed military acceptance: Each fighter passed a full cycle of factory trials, was tested in different operating modes by Russian Ministry of Defense pilots and then flown to its home airfield.
🔸 Production and modernization are continuing together: New aircraft are entering service while engineers refine both the fighter and its manufacturing process. This allows later batches to incorporate lessons gathered from aircraft already used in combat.
UAC has not revealed whether the changes involve the radar, electronic warfare equipment, sensors, engines or other major systems. There is therefore no public basis yet for treating the latest configuration as an entirely new Su-57 variant.
What is clear is that Russia is no longer delivering the same aircraft configuration it fielded at the beginning of the conflict. Every new batch can enter service with improvements informed by operational experience while gaining access to a broader selection of weapons and missions.
For Ukraine, the concern is that combat feedback is reaching the production line while serial deliveries continue. The longer the Su-57 remains in operational use, the more data Russian engineers can apply to the next aircraft leaving the factory.
Should NATO be worried about the new Su-57?
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🇨🇳🥴🇮🇷 China’s Iran Lifeline: Thousands Of Drone And Missile Components Reach Iran
Iran’s military supply network has gained a new channel from China. Iranian customs data show around 1,300 shipments of dual-use components from Chinese entities reached Iran’s Ministry of Defense in the first half of 2026, including electronics used in drones and missile systems.
One shipment arrived in Tehran on the same day Washington and Tehran announced a temporary truce. Two days later, more than a dozen additional deliveries carrying over $6M worth of components followed, according to the records.
The shipments included items such as GPS equipment, electric motors and aircraft parts. Analysts say some of the electronics match components used in Shahed-type drones, while other materials can support precision-guided weapons.
The supply route is part of a broader economic connection. China has remained Iran’s main oil buyer despite US sanctions, providing Tehran with revenue through networks involving Chinese companies, banks and yuan-based transactions, according to US officials and researchers.
The battlefield impact has also become a concern in Washington. US officials have linked Chinese satellite imagery to an Iranian strike that killed three American troops, while US authorities have accused Chinese companies of supplying materials connected to Iran’s missile production.
Beijing denies supporting military activity and says it follows international rules on dual-use exports. Chinese officials have also rejected unilateral US sanctions, arguing that they do not have international legitimacy.
The developments reveal a wider problem for Washington’s pressure campaign against Tehran. Sanctions can target Iranian entities, but controlling the industrial and financial links between Iran and China is far more difficult without risking a confrontation with Beijing.
As Trump seeks closer ties with Xi Jinping, the US faces a dilemma: the same relationship it wants to stabilize is also connected to one of Iran’s most important economic and technological lifelines.
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🇨🇳🛳 China’s New Aircraft Carrier Could Rival US Navy’s Largest Warship
Satellite imagery from Dalian Shipyard suggests China is building a new aircraft carrier that could become the largest in its fleet and match the size of the US Navy’s biggest carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, according to satellite imagery from Dalian Shipyard.
Images captured on September 4 show work beginning on the bow section of the unnamed carrier, commonly referred to by analysts as the Type 004. Measurements based on the visible hull indicate a possible length of 336–339 metres, slightly longer than the 333-meter Gerald R. Ford-class carrier.
Beijing has not disclosed the ship’s designation, propulsion system or final specifications. However, analysts say the size of the hull points to a design intended for longer-range carrier operations, with more aircraft, fuel and weapons capacity than China’s current flagship carrier, the Fujian.
The Fujian entered service in 2025 and is China’s most advanced carrier so far. The larger Type 004 design is expected by analysts to carry a bigger air wing, potentially around 75–90 aircraft compared with the Fujian’s estimated 50–60.
The most important question is the propulsion system. Janes Information Services assessed that the ship could become China’s first nuclear-powered surface warship. Nuclear propulsion would allow greater endurance at sea and free internal space for aviation fuel, ammunition or additional systems.
A carrier of this scale also requires a larger support network. Satellite images have shown China building a new fast replenishment ship near Guangzhou, believed to be designed to support future carrier battle groups. A second large hull of the same design appears to be under construction at the same shipyard, although this assessment has not been independently verified.
Unlike the US Navy, China does not operate a worldwide network of overseas bases, making logistics a central challenge for expanding operations far from home. The construction of larger replenishment ships suggests Beijing is building the infrastructure needed to sustain naval groups over longer distances.
The Type 004 remains under construction and many details are still unknown. However, the combination of a larger carrier hull, possible nuclear propulsion and expanded supply ships shows China is building the industrial support system required to operate larger carrier groups across wider maritime regions.
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🇮🇷🏭 Iran Tech Hub Develops 110 New Products Despite US-Israeli Attacks
Iran’s largest technology hub says its companies developed more than 110 new technological products over the past year, despite disruptions to equipment procurement, financing, exports and market access.
The work continued through a period that included two rounds of US-Israeli attacks on Iran, according to Pardis Technology Park chief Mehdi Safarinia.
Some of the technologies were produced in Iran for the first time and were developed to replace unavailable foreign products or meet domestic industrial needs.
Pardis is not a single laboratory. It is an ecosystem of hundreds of technology companies working across fields including electronics, medical equipment, software, advanced manufacturing and industrial technologies.
Companies based there have now produced more than 30,000 technological products and services in total.
At the park’s annual gathering this week, companies showcased technologies including an intelligent ultrasound system, an AI-based blood-pressure monitoring system and a magnetic centrifugal pump.
The more important part of Pardis’ model is what happens after research.
Safarinia said the park is trying to create a continuous path from university research to prototypes, industrial production and finally the market. That addresses one of the hardest problems in building an independent technology base: turning scientific capability into equipment and products that domestic industries can actually use.
For Iran, that process has an obvious strategic dimension.
Restrictions on access to foreign equipment, finance and markets make dependence on imported high-tech products unusually risky. War adds another layer: technologies used in healthcare, communications, energy and industrial production can become national-security assets when external supply chains are disrupted.
Pardis is therefore increasingly being used as more than a startup cluster. Iranian officials want it to coordinate technological capabilities across universities, private companies and industry when imported solutions are unavailable.
The 110 new products do not mean Iran has eliminated its dependence on foreign technology, and the park has not published a complete breakdown showing how many have already reached mass production.
But they show that pressure on Iran’s access to foreign technology has not stopped product development.
Instead, Iranian companies are continuing to push more of the chain — research, engineering, manufacturing and commercialization — inside the country.
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🇺🇸💱🇨🇳 U.S. Trade War With China Is Failing. Here's why
Eight years of tariffs, export controls and industrial policy have dramatically reduced direct trade between the US and China. They have done much less to remove China from the supply chains that feed the American economy.
China supplied about 21.6% of US goods imports in 2017. By 2025, that share had fallen to roughly 9%, its lowest level since China joined the WTO.
On paper, that looks like major decoupling. But much of the trade moved elsewhere.
Research by the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that countries gaining US market share also became more reliant on Chinese inputs. Vietnam and Mexico have emerged as two of the most important channels through which Chinese value added still reaches American consumers.
By the end of 2024, nine Vietnamese manufacturing sectors had Chinese value added accounting for more than 10% of their exports to the US.
CSIS found the same pattern in the trade deficit. Between 2018 and 2025, the US goods deficit with China fell 52%, from $419.5B to $202.1B. But deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand and India all hit records.
Vietnam’s deficit with the US rose 351%, while Taiwan’s jumped 865% over the same period.
The trade imbalance did not simply return to American factories. A large part of it moved through other Asian production hubs, many of which remain deeply integrated with Chinese suppliers.
China adapted from the other side as well. Its goods trade surplus reached a record $1.19T in 2025, while Chinese companies expanded sales outside the US and invested in manufacturing abroad.
Technology restrictions also pushed Beijing harder toward domestic substitution in semiconductors, advanced manufacturing and other strategic industries.
None of this means US restrictions achieved nothing. China lost a huge share of the American import market, and access to some advanced Western technologies remains constrained.
But direct imports were always only one part of the dependence.
Washington succeeded in changing the label on a growing share of US imports. It has had a much harder time removing Chinese factories, components and capital from the supply chains behind them.
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🇮🇷⛽️ Iran Rebuilds Key Gas Hub After US-Israeli Strikes
Iran has brought around half of the gas-processing capacity lost at South Pars back online, accelerating repairs at the energy complex that sits at the center of the country’s gas system.
Deputy Oil Minister Ahmad Zera’atkar said roughly 50% of the damaged capacity had returned to service by September 22, with several units restarting ahead of schedule. That is up from about 40% in late August.
The scale of the disruption was substantial. Iranian officials say attacks during the conflict knocked around 230M cubic meters per day of gas-processing capacity out of operation across four plants.
Rather than waiting for every damaged unit to be rebuilt, operators have also redirected production through spare processing capacity elsewhere. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said that approach has already compensated for nearly 100M cubic meters per day of the lost capacity.
More than 120M cubic meters per day of the original shortfall still remains, so the recovery is far from complete.
But the speed of the partial restoration is significant for a system as concentrated as Iran’s.
South Pars is the Iranian section of the world’s largest gas reservoir, shared with Qatar’s North Field, and supplies a large share of the gas used by Iranian households, power plants and petrochemical facilities.
A prolonged outage therefore reaches far beyond the gas industry itself.
Iran has responded by combining direct reconstruction with spare processing capacity, increased liquid-fuel reserves for power plants and domestic financing for repair projects. Four financing projects have been launched to support the reconstruction.
Officials are now trying to recover additional capacity before winter demand peaks. Full rebuilding of the damaged facilities will take longer, but immediate production can return before every damaged structure is completely reconstructed.
That distinction is important.
Modern energy systems are not resilient simply because infrastructure survives an attack. They are resilient when operators can reroute flows, use spare capacity, substitute fuels and repair damaged equipment fast enough to prevent a temporary disruption from becoming a lasting loss of output.
South Pars is now becoming a large-scale test of exactly that capability.
Six months after major gas-processing capacity was knocked offline, Iran has already recovered around half of the loss and is using the rest of its energy system to absorb part of the remaining shortfall.
For a country whose gas infrastructure is heavily concentrated around South Pars, the ability to restore and reroute production may prove almost as strategically important as the capacity that existed before the attacks.
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🇮🇷💥⚠️ Iran Operations Start Eating Into US Destroyer Fleet
The US Navy has concentrated an unusually large share of its destroyer force around the Middle East — just as the same ships are already spending far more time in maintenance than the Navy planned.
As of September 14, 13 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers were operating in the Arabian Sea and another two in the Red Sea as Washington sustained operations against Iran.
Those ships are being drawn from bases across the entire US fleet: Norfolk, Mayport, Yokosuka, San Diego, Pearl Harbor and Everett.
A week later, the concentration remained substantial. USNI tracked two destroyers in the Red Sea, around 10 in the Arabian Sea and several more immediately nearby in the Indian Ocean.
Keeping that many ships forward deployed puts additional pressure on a fleet whose maintenance system is already struggling.
A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) review of 225 Arleigh Burke maintenance periods found that overhauls completed between 2011 and 2024 took an average of 26% longer than the Navy’s final schedules and required 8% more labor than planned.
CBO estimates that an Arleigh Burke will now spend more than nine years of its service life in maintenance — over twice the amount envisioned in the Navy’s 2012 maintenance plans.
The ships are also getting older. The average age of the class rose from roughly 10 years in 2011 to 20 years in 2024, bringing more extensive repairs, modernization work and unexpected maintenance.
And Washington is already spending heavily to keep them available. Inflation-adjusted destroyer maintenance funding increased 400% between 2009 and 2024, while the fleet itself grew only about 25%.
Operations around Iran add another layer to that problem.
Long deployments mean more hours on propulsion systems, sensors and other equipment before ships return to already congested maintenance schedules. Delayed repairs then keep vessels out of the operational fleet longer, placing more pressure on the ships that remain available.
The geographic spread matters as well. Arleigh Burkes form the backbone of US surface combat power not only in the Middle East but across the Pacific and Atlantic.
Washington cannot create additional hulls when the same fleet is also expected to cover East Asia, Europe and other commitments.
The result is a simple numbers problem: the more ships the US keeps around Iran, the harder an already strained maintenance system has to work to sustain American naval presence everywhere else.
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🇺🇸America’s $78B ICBM Replacement Turns Into $141B Megaproject
The US Air Force set out to replace its aging Minuteman III nuclear missiles with a new generation of ICBMs.
The original acquisition estimate for the LGM-35A Sentinel was about $77.7B. The Pentagon now puts the cost at $140.9B — an 81% increase.
And the missile itself is only part of the problem.
Sentinel was initially planned around the assumption that much of the existing Minuteman infrastructure could be reused. Instead, the Air Force discovered that replacing the weapon also meant rebuilding much of the enormous network underneath it.
The current Minuteman system spans more than 600 facilities across five states, including 450 missile silos, launch-control infrastructure, communications networks and supporting sites.
Sentinel requires new electrical systems, communications, security architecture and extensive modifications to launch facilities. Pentagon reviewers found that most of the program’s cost growth came from this command-and-launch segment, rather than from the missile itself.
The overrun became so severe that Sentinel triggered a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach, the statutory process used when major US weapons programs blow through their approved cost baselines.
The Pentagon reviewed the program, declared it essential to national security and allowed it to continue — while stripping its previous Milestone B approval and forcing the Air Force to restructure it.
The schedule has moved with the price. GAO says Sentinel’s first flight is now planned for March 2028, roughly four years later than originally expected. The Air Force is targeting initial operational capability only in the early 2030s.
That delay creates another bill. The Minuteman III entered service in 1970, but the Air Force will now have to keep the aging system operating for years longer while Sentinel gradually replaces it. And $140.9B may not be the final price.
GAO reported this year that cost and schedule estimates are still evolving as the Air Force redesigns parts of the program, revises requirements and works toward a new Milestone B decision. Auditors said it remains unclear whether the preliminary estimates produced during the 2024 review will ultimately hold.
So a program sold as the replacement for an old missile has expanded into one of the largest military construction and systems-integration projects in the United States.
The Pentagon started with a $77.7B ICBM program. It now has a $140.9B missile, software, communications and civil-engineering overhaul stretching across hundreds of nuclear facilities — with the final bill still unsettled.
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