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OSINTWarfare

In a rare occurrence, a Russian Su-35S multirole fighter crossed into Ukrainian airspace, flew over the town of Uhroidy in Sumy Oblast, and launched a Kh-59/69 cruise missile at Sumy City before safely returning to Kursk Oblast.

Normally, Su-35S, Su-30SM/SM2, and Su-34 aircraft launch glide bombs and other guided munitions from roughly 50 km behind the frontline to minimize the risk of interception by Ukrainian air defenses.

It may have been an attempt to test Ukraine’s air defense response, but apparently no interception followed. Russia may be increasingly confident that Ukraine currently lacks sufficient PAC-2/3 interceptor missiles to pose a significant threat to its aircraft.

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OSINTWarfare

Lockheed Martin has reported that Germany’s first F-35A, designated MG-01, has completed final assembly and moved to the finishing stage, including application of its external coating. The aircraft is expected to be officially rolled out and make its first flight later this year before being handed over to the Luftwaffe.

Seven more of Germany’s 35 F-35As are currently in production in the United States. After completion, they will remain in the U.S. for pilot and technician training. The fighters are expected to arrive in Germany by the end of 2027, where they will replace the Luftwaffe’s Tornado IDS fleet.

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OSINTWarfare

Ukraine’s FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missiles on display at DALO Industry Days 2026.

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OSINTWarfare

Hezbollah has released footage from the final days before the ceasefire (imaginary), showing fiber-optic FPV drone strikes targeting IDF personnel and vehicles on the southern outskirts of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah in southern Lebanon.

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OSINTWarfare

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out another airstrike on Abu al-Duhur Air Base in the eastern countryside of Idlib, northwestern Syria.

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A Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) F-15J (22-8809) assigned to the 204th Tactical Fighter Squadron at Naha Air Base suffered a landing gear strut failure while landing today, August 18.

The pilot was unharmed.

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OSINTWarfare

Unconfirmed reports say that Israeli Air Force (IAF) aircraft carried out four airstrikes on the runway of Abu al-Duhur Air Base in the eastern countryside of Idlib, northwestern Syria, where Turkish forces are stationed.

I highly doubt this happened, but let’s wait and see.

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The Iraqi Air Force (IQAF) conducted two airstrikes against ISIS hideouts in the Zaghaytun Valley, west of Kirkuk, killing several ISIS members.

The strikes were carried out based on precise intelligence from the Directorate of Military Intelligence, which had detected the movement of ISIS members at the site.

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OSINTWarfare

Donald Trump demanded $10 billion from South Korea in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.

Shortly, he’ll probably announce that he’s in love with Kim Jong Un lol

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OSINTWarfare

A Russian S8000 Banderol small cruise missile crashed in a cornfield near Talmaza in southeastern Moldova, more than 20 km from the Ukrainian border.

Moldovan police secured the crash site and released images of the wreckage, while specialists began examining the missile and investigating the circumstances.

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OSINTWarfare

An interesting 38North analysis examines open-source information on the combat use of North Korean Hwasong-11B (KN-24) / Hwasong-11Ka (KN-23) operational-tactical ballistic missiles, primarily the KN-23, against targets in Ukraine.

The analysis reaches several conclusions that differ from mainstream Ukrainian and Western assessments. We previously highlighted some of these discrepancies as well.

By comparing missile launches conducted in North Korea, tracked through foreign technical intelligence, with launches against Ukrainian targets, and accounting for known accuracy and failure rates, the author concludes that the initial issue was apparently not poor manufacturing quality.

Instead, the missiles were being used in Ukraine under conditions absent from North Korean test launches, particularly against advanced electronic warfare (EW) and air defense systems. EW interference disrupted satellite navigation, while air defenses could damage or deflect missiles even without fully intercepting them.

The need to evade interception also forced the missiles to fly more complex trajectories, making it harder to maintain the intended point of impact. Combined with interception damage, this contributed to lower accuracy and higher failure rates.

According to the analysis, when satellite navigation was disrupted, the missiles often had to rely on their less sophisticated inertial navigation systems. Accuracy deteriorated with increasing range and trajectory complexity, falling to 1,000–3,000 meters, still potentially sufficient for nuclear strikes against large area targets.

Experience gained in Ukraine apparently led to repeated modernization of the missiles, improving their resilience against advanced EW systems. Later batches regained the accuracy demonstrated during North Korean test launches, achieving accuracy in the tens of meters even at maximum range, with later claims of 1–5 meter accuracy.

Various structural and trajectory-related improvements were also developed and tested, increasing both missile reliability and performance.

Other interesting details include the estimate that around 250 KN-23/KN-24 missiles had been transferred by September 2025.

The analysis also states that KN-23 missiles were used between November 2023 and December 2025 from only a single launcher operated by Korean People’s Army personnel.

Finally, materials from the Memorial Museum of Combat Feats in the Special Military Operation Abroad reportedly contain a reference to the participation of a KPA missile unit in the operation.

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Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) forces from the 3rd Military Region carried out strikes against Ansar Allah (Houthi) fighters and their vehicles south of Marib, Marib Governorate, Yemen.

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An autonomous combat module of the Pantsir-S1 air defense system mounted on one of the towers in Moscow Oblast.

Its ammunition load includes the new 19Ya6 (TKB-1055) “Gvozd” short-range surface-to-air missiles housed in TKB-1056 quadruple launchers, as well as standard 9Ya241 transport-launch containers for 57E6/57E6M surface-to-air missiles.

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The first image of a J-10CE Multirole Fighter belonging to the Uzbekistan Air and Air Defence Forces has emerged.

The aircraft is part of a contract with China under which Uzbekistan ordered 24 J-10CE fighters.

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OSINTWarfare

Saudi Arabia’s Jazan was targeted in a joint missile and drone attack by Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen.

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Private Chinese space company LandSpace’s Zhuque-3 Y2 reusable launch vehicle successfully achieved orbital insertion and first-stage recovery.

This marks the second successful Chinese rocket recovery in just one month, following the recovery of the Long March 10A.

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The Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out airstrikes on Ali Al-Taher Hill near Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.

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An air parade was held in Jakarta yesterday to mark the 81st anniversary of Indonesia’s independence.

The parade featured a mix of American, European (French and British), South Korean, and Russian aircraft operated by the Indonesian Air Force. The Russian-made aircraft are of particular interest.

Indonesia was one of the first foreign operators of Sukhoi’s heavy fighter aircraft. Its air force currently operates 16 Su-27/30 family aircraft: five single-seat Su-27SK/SMKs and eleven two-seat Su-30MK/MK2s. All are assigned to the 11th Squadron of the 5th Air Wing at Sultan Hasanuddin Air Base in Makassar, on Sulawesi.

Indonesia plans to eventually replace its Su-27/30 fleet with newer fighters. It has already ordered French Dassault Rafales, with deliveries underway, and is also considering the South Korean KF-21.

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OSINTWarfare

A Russian jet-powered Geran-4 loitering munition crashed at an unspecified location in Ukraine. It remains unclear whether it malfunctioned or was brought down by electronic warfare (EW).

Jet-powered Gerans are increasingly being used as a tool to put pressure on Ukraine’s rear areas. While these variants initially appeared only sporadically in Russian strikes, their share has grown significantly over the past year.

In July, Ukrainian data suggested that jet-powered drones accounted for up to 20% of Russian attack UAVs in some strikes. In August, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat stated that their share had reached as high as two-thirds in some attacks.

For Ukraine, this presents a growing air-defense challenge. Their higher speed reduces reaction times and makes them more difficult for low-cost interceptor drones to engage. These interceptors have become one of Ukraine’s primary means of countering conventional piston-powered Gerans, prompting Ukrainian and Western companies to accelerate the development of faster interceptor drones.

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OSINTWarfare

Satellite imagery shows the aftermath of a strike by two FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles on one of the workshops at the Rocket and Space Centre “Progress” in Samara on August 15.

The facility is important to Russia’s space industry, as it manufactures Soyuz-2 launch vehicles, including the Soyuz-2.1b, which is used to place satellites for the Rassvet low-Earth-orbit communications constellation, operated by the private Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440, into orbit.

Ukraine’s heavy reliance on Starlink has given it a clear understanding of the advantages that similar technology could provide to the Russian Armed Forces. As the launch of the Rassvet constellation approaches, Ukraine is therefore likely to increasingly target facilities associated with Russia’s space industry.

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OSINTWarfare

Earlier today, a Russian Su-35S operating near Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast, attempted to shoot down a possible Ukrainian MiG-29MU2 Multirole Fighter that was launching glide bombs at Russian positions in Kostyantynivka from west of Kramatorsk. The Su-35S engaged the aircraft with an R-37 or R-77 air-to-air missile.

Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that a Russian fighter had shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29.

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OSINTWarfare

Earlier tonight, an Iranian drone struck a fuel tank in Tasluja, Sulaymaniyah Governorate, Iraqi Kurdistan.

Correction: Unrelated to any strike.

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OSINTWarfare

Btw, do you guys maybe know where all those people disappeared to who in January 2025 were so passionately saying that the world had been saved, wars would end, the US would become better, the right-wing wave in Europe could no longer be stopped, and a conservative revolution would take over the entire world?

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OSINTWarfare

With each passing day, I’m becoming increasingly convinced that if the United States does not launch a ground invasion of Iran, the use of a nuclear weapon may eventually become inevitable.

But that would come with enormous consequences. It could open the door for other nuclear-armed states to use their own weapons, giving them a precedent, or an excuse, to deploy nuclear weapons against their enemies. Russia would almost certainly be one of the countries to take advantage of such a precedent.

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OSINTWarfare

An FPV drone captured the powerful impacts of two Geran-2 loitering munitions striking a temporary deployment point of Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast.

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Iranian jet-powered Hadid-110 stealth drones targeted the office of Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the headquarters of the region’s intelligence agency last night.

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OSINTWarfare

CCTV footage shows the moment a Russian Geran-4 loitering munition equipped with an electro-optical (EO) seeker struck a WOG gas station in the Dniprovskyi District of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine.

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OSINTWarfare

The IRGC Navy launched an anti-ship cruise missile toward a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz for violating regulations.

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OSINTWarfare

During the night of August 16, the Ukrainian Navy claimed to have struck the launch positions and deployment area of a Russian K-300P Bastion-P coastal defense missile system in Crimea.

The Bastion-P is capable of launching P-800 Oniks supersonic cruise missiles, which can engage both maritime and land targets, as well as 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.

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OSINTWarfare

Earlier today, an unidentified loitering munition struck the Ben Younes station in the city of Zawiya, western Libya.

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