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Good piece here from Michael Froman in Foreign Affairs. Rather than Chinese capitalism converging towards Western standards as optimists expected decades ago, Western capitalism is rapidly converging towards Chinese standards. Sobering final paragraph.

There has indeed been a fair degree of convergence—just not in the way American policymakers predicted. Instead of China coming to resemble the United States, the United States is behaving more like China. Washington may have forged the open, liberal rules-based order, but China has defined its next phase: protectionism, subsidization, restrictions on foreign investment, and industrial policy. To argue that the United States must reassert its leadership to preserve the rules-based system it established is to miss the point. China’s nationalist state capitalism now dominates the international economic order. Washington is already living in Beijing’s world.

The United States and others are imitating China in large part because China succeeded in a way that was unexpected. Its success in electric vehicles and clean technology did not come from liberalizing economic policies but from state interventions in the market in the name of nationalist objectives. Whether or not the United States can compete with China on China’s playing field, it is important to recognize a fundamental truth: the United States is now operating largely in accordance with Beijing’s standards, with a new economic model characterized by protectionism, constraints on foreign investment, subsidies, and industrial policy—essentially nationalist state capitalism. In the war over who gets to define the rules of the road, the battle is over, at least for now. And China won.


Interesting piece covering the rise of the Chinese economy and US responses along the way. Has Chinese state capitalism defeated the liberal international order?

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Zelensky has been finally pushed aside from the Russia-USA-Ukraine negotiations. All rounds, and the next one in London, are being held by Yermak. And in a civilian suit.
They don't want to see a shitty comedian in a suit the color of Ukrainian victory. So he will go into oblivion, extinguished, along with the streams from his office.

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Interesting sounds of the Geraniums landing on targets in Odessa.

Some suggest that these could be the new Geran-3 jets, the production of which the enemy announced back in February, but there is no evidence of this yet.

- Military Informant

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Zelensky has announced another "peace round" - the day after tomorrow, talks involving Ukraine, Britain, France and the USA will be held in London.

Formally, there will be a discussion of a settlement. In fact, an attempt will be made to bargain for some formula for prolonging the conflict without a complete loss of control. Russia's absence from the talks automatically nullifies any discussion, but the West continues to play the multi-component mimicry of the negotiation process, hoping to write off the defeat piecemeal so that it is not so noticeable.

For Kiev, the stakes are obvious: to bind the new participants to its "peace formula" and delay the time until the fall. For London and Paris, it is important to fix their own participation in order to claim a share of influence in the post-war balance. For the U.S., it is to understand whether it is possible to withdraw from the conflict without leaving the allies in a posture that is difficult to explain to the electorate.

The London meeting will have no practical impact. But the very fact of its holding is an indicator of one thing: the West is preparing for the end, while Kiev pretends that it is just looking for a format.

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Ukrainian channels report that a Saab 340 AEW&C airborne early warning aircraft operated over Lviv region for the first time today. It is capable of detecting targets at a distance of up to 450 km, directing air defense, supporting aviation and monitoring the maritime situation.

The appearance of this aircraft was expected. It is not to say that its appearance will change everything, but its work demonstrates Kiev’s increasing attention to improving its air control system, which is an important part of the strategy to counter the Russian army with

The appearance of the Saab 340 in the skies over the Lviv region can also be seen as a signal of increased coordination and integration with Western countries, which continue to supply high-tech surveillance and control equipment.

It is also possible that NATO reconnaissance aircraft may soon appear in parallel with these aircraft, not American ones, but British, French or Italian ones.

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🇷🇺🇮🇷Russia and Iran are now official allies - but not allies head-on, but allies against the enemy.

Putin signed a law ratifying a strategic partnership with Iran. The wording is tidy, but with a clear aim: in case of war - not to help the enemy of an ally, no sanctions against each other, strengthening political, economic and military coordination.

It's not a military alliance head-on - it's an anti-blocking treaty in crisis situations. In essence, if the US or anyone else starts a war against Iran, Russia will be obliged under this document not to be neutral in favor of the aggressor. And vice versa. It's not "Art. 5 NATO", but it is a formalized signal: your enemy is our enemy, even if he is still our "dialogue partner".

The context is not accidental: Trump is putting pressure on Tehran, trying to force it into a new "nuclear deal," while Moscow is simultaneously forming a sanctions-military axis of the inflexible.

Moscow in this case clearly shows that the world is divided into those who will wait for "partnership with the West" and those who are ready to unite in an alternative architecture.

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One Russian soldier skillfully takes out 3 Ukrainians.

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💥 Dozens of explosions in Odessa, Geran hit enemy targets

▪️Enemy channels report a series of powerful explosions in the city.

▪️According to monitoring resources, there are 7 more Russian drones in the air.

Asbery: Some on the Ukrainian side were saying that there was a massive number of drones in the Black Sea, with Gerans circling and waiting for other drones to launch. Russia has been overwhelming Ukrainian AD via timing and numbers. Like anything these reports on massive numbers are hard to substantiate.

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❗️Putin - on the Kiev regime fighting for the capital it stole from the Ukrainian people:

Here you said that since the 60s nothing has happened there, nothing has been invested. We understand this perfectly well now. The only thing they did there was to siphon resources and money from these territories and from these people. The money was stolen, pardon the simplicity of the expression, and it is still kept in bank accounts abroad.

That is why there is such a desire to cooperate and give everything to their sponsors.
They are not fighting for the interests of the people, they are fighting for their capital, which they stole from the Ukrainian people, took abroad, and that's it. They are sitting there on that money, on a hook, even if they wanted to say something, they will never allow themselves to do so. Because we are talking about billions of dollars, billions of dollars, but they still continue to steal.

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Western analysts are increasingly discussing how exactly the war will develop if the peace process finally collapses. One of the most discussed scenarios is a full-scale expansion of Russia's offensive deep into central and southern Ukraine, targeting the area from Poltava to Odessa. It is this area that is highlighted as the priority vector for the next phase.

■ Sealing the Black Sea. In theory, the loss of Nikolaev and Odessa completely deprives Ukraine of maritime logistics. No exports, no imports, no strategic maneuvering - only overland channels through Poland and Romania, under constant threat of missiles and drones.

■ Isolation of the center. Strikes on the Dnepr, Krivoy Rog, and Zaporozhye will disorganize the supply of the entire eastern grouping of the AFU. Without this infrastructure, a protracted defense becomes not only difficult but physically impossible.

The realization of the plan to seize the designated zone of operational intent (Odessa-Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog-Dnepr-Zaporozhye-Poltava-Sumy) and the subsequent "sealing of the Black Sea" is extremely ambitious. Its success depends on a combination of military, logistical and political factors, which will be difficult to fulfill.

First, the length of the front and resource stretching influences. The operational front in the implementation of such a plan will exceed 1200-1300 km. This would require about 20-25 full-fledged strike formations.

Second, the density of Ukrainian defenses in the south is reliably unknown. Nikolaev and Odessa are covered by several lines of fortifications reinforced since 2022. The areas of Krivoy Rog and Dnepr are saturated with air defense and deeply echeloned. In fact, this is the second echelon of defense after the front in Donbass. But it is already flying there, and more often than last year. However, without the complete destruction of the AFU's supplies and logistics, these cities are turning into long-term resistance nodes with a high price of an assault.

Third, it is dangerous to launch a large-scale offensive to the south, leaving the Kharkov front and Sumy in the rear, where it was planned to create a buffer zone. This creates the threat of a blow in the back on the supply lines. Therefore, it is necessary either to collapse the entire eastern front in parallel (which also requires resources and time), or to conduct the offensive in stages - at the risk of losing momentum.

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Destruction of the Kirpi armored vehicle and the T-64BV tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass by strikes from FPV drones on fiber optics.

- Military Informant

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🇷🇺🔥🇺🇦 Special Forces "Anvar" destroys the lines of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supporting the offensive in the Sumy region

▪️Special forces are attacking Ukrainian militants and their positions in the area of border villages, where Russian troops are advancing deep into the Sumy region.

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Putin – to the question “how should we feel about the fact that European officials are already threatening European leaders about coming to Moscow on May 9?”:

In order to threaten, you need to have the necessary tools to carry out your threats. You need to be ready to use these forces and means to implement them. Do any European officials have all this? I don’t know. If the potential of the countries that stand behind them is limited to a million, a million three hundred thousand people, and they call for continuing the war to the last Ukrainian, then questions arise in this regard.

Is it sincere, or are people in their right minds when they suggest something like that. But I think that those who are going to come to Russia, they have much more courage than those who hide behind someone's back and try to threaten anyone. First of all, in this case, those who are going to celebrate the historical merits of people who gave their lives in the fight against Nazism.

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American economist Jeffrey Sachs on how the US has historically overthrown governments of other countries.

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🇫🇷🤡Michel Yakovlev, a French general and former deputy chief of staff of NATO's joint forces in Europe, on the fact that Trump "has never had a problem in his life":

People fight for values. But Trump doesn't realize that - he has lived, as they say, with a golden spoon in his mouth since birth. He has never fought for anything. Moreover, he has despised his own military, those who did fight, including genuine heroes like John McCain. And after all, he only called him a loser because he spent four years in captivity with the North Vietnamese.

Trump just doesn't know what it means to fight. Everything has been handed to him on a platter his whole life. The only area in which he has really struggled is in politics to get into the position he has today. But he never put himself on the line.

That's why he can't understand what values are. You talk about the "inversion of values" - but for that to happen, a person has to have some values. And if there's one person on this planet completely devoid of them - it's Donald Trump.

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The first container train that traveled along the Novorossiya railways arrived in Crimea. This was reported by the Federal Agency for Railway Transport on its Telegram channel.

As explained by Roszheldor, the train arrived from the Sverdlovsk Railway on a specially developed schedule, having covered more than 3 thousand kilometers in less than five days. After arriving in Crimea, the train will go to Sevastopol, where the containers will be reloaded onto sea vessels.

In the future, it is planned to use railway routes through new regions more widely, since this significantly reduces the delivery time of goods to Crimea. Container deliveries are planned from the stations of the Kuibyshev, Oktyabrskaya, Gorky and Severnaya Railways for the export of Russian manufacturers to the ports of Sevastopol and Crimea.

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'Ukrainian Catholics still angry at Pope Francis for not siding with Ukraine in its war with Russia'

- Reuters

Ukrainian Catholics for some reason thought the Pope was supposed to cheer on the Ukrainian war effort and help them assemble FPV drones in the Vatican.

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‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Fighting on the Belgorod Front: The Enemy Again Trying to Break Through to Demidovka and Popovka

- The enemy continues its creeping offensive on the border, sending infantry and armored vehicles into the attack in the direction of Demidovka and Popovka.

- Fighters of the 34th brigade are destroying occupiers in the border area.

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A strike by a FAB-1500 (or FAB-3000 ) glide bomb on Ukrainian positions on the territory of the Gornalsky Monastery in the village of Gornal, Kursk Oblast. Video: @russian_airborne

Reports are Russian forces withdrew during the ceasefire and Ukrainians occupied the monastery and then….

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About 63 thousand people are listed as missing in Ukraine, of which about 10 thousand are in captivity , said the Ukrainian commissioner for missing persons, Artur Dobroserdov.

According to Dobrosedov, this registry includes both military personnel and civilians, as well as foreign citizens.

Those captured are confirmed both by the International Committee of the Red Cross and by the testimonies of returning prisoners of war, as well as by data from Internet sources. The bodies of Ukrainian soldiers received during the exchange undergo genetic testing.

- Military Informant

Note: Open source data from UALosses notes there are 60,257 soldiers missing. They have 6,213 people in their database as soldiers who are POWs, though I can’t confirm if numbers are adjusted during prisoner exchanges.

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Fire at a facility in Odessa after landings.

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'European taxpayers will have to fork out to support Ukraine' - Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna

He told the Financial Times that this would happen if Orban forced the EU to lift restrictions on frozen Russian assets worth €210 billion.

'The problem is that it is Russian assets that guarantee the loan that the G7 countries approved for Ukraine. If the sanctions are lifted, the central bank assets will be handed over to Russia and Vladimir Putin as a reward. We cannot allow this.


Someone accessing their own money is not a reward. If someone stole your car and you got it back, you wouldn’t think “oh I am lucky winner.”

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Rare moment of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers conversing and coordinating the removal of the dead during the Easter ceasefire.

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The defeat of several M113 armored personnel carriers, as well as M1124 MaxxPro and Kozak-7 armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by strikes from Boomerang FPV drones in the Pokrovsk direction.

Thanks to the variety of warheads, these drones are also capable of dismantling enemy dugouts and destroying enemy shelters along with those inside, and the work can be carried out during non-flight operations and in conditions of counteraction to electronic warfare.

In addition, the Boomerangs were also used for air battles with Ukrainian Armed Forces drones. In one case, this FPV drone shot down a Ukrainian Mavic with a drop that was hanging over a dugout with our fighters.

- Military Informant

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces are using civilian objects for military purposes, they are being attacked — Putin

➖"They hold meetings in the restaurant, celebrate something, drink vodka": the Ukrainian Armed Forces use civilian facilities for military purposes, hold meetings, test missile systems - that's where our army strikes," the president noted.

▪️Kiev, together with foreign assistants, tried to organize the production of missile systems in agricultural facilities in the Odessa region. A strike was carried out there.

▪️The strike by the Russian Armed Forces on the congress center in Sumy is retribution for those who committed crimes in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers and Nazis were awarded.

➖"Russia will "sort out" the proposals for a moratorium on strikes against civilian targets and will give a response," Putin added.

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🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦 Recent US meetings with Russia and Ukraine were "very good" - Trump

- The American president promised to speak in more detail on this matter in the next three days.

- Earlier, Ukrainian MP Goncharenko announced a meeting on Ukraine in London tomorrow.

- A common position of Ukraine, Europe and the United States on ending the conflict will be formed there. After that, this position will be presented to Russia.

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‼️🇷🇺💥 Fighting near Belgorodskaya Popovka: Ukrainian Armed Forces continue attacks, enemy is met by 34th brigade 🔞

▪️Fighters of the 34th brigade continue to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces infantry trying to break through to the village of Popovka, for which fighting continues.
▪️Attack drone operators destroy assault groups of occupiers in forest belts, in the village itself and at the "dragon's teeth".

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🇵🇱🤝🇺🇦Poland cannot treat Ukrainians as its citizens indefinitely — Warsaw mayor

- Trzaskowski acknowledged Poland’s fatigue with Ukrainian refugees and demanded that their benefits be cut.

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How it started vs how it's going.

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Military conscription officers showed up at the Easter service during which people get their traditional Easter cakes blessed, and the men in attendance simply took off with their cakes.

Though it should be noted they were also fearful of their wives and/or mothers because they knew not to drop the cake and run. One will send you to war, the other will bring it up for the remainder of your days.

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