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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
A Multi-Analysis of the War and its Consequences, Part 4/6
Speaking in purely mathematical terms, there was absolute zero justification whatsoever for such an expensive meat grinder over one town that at the time wasn't even that strategically significant (the nearby Chasov Yar is far more important due to its geography), but despite this the Narkoman decided to turn Artemovsk into a national symbol, and committed so much political capital into the battle that he effectively boxed himself in. As a result, a severe, probably crippling blow was dealt to the AFU, for a place that, like all Festungs, was destined to fall regardless of effort.
The second episode is the Krinky fiasco. At the insistence of the Brits, the Ukrainian Stavka decided to send their elite Marines into what probably earns the distinction of being the stupidest decision of the entire war, namely the Krinky operation. The Brits were convinced that a landing operation would've penetrated deep into Russian territory, thus forcing the RUAF to divert enough troops to the area to lower their presence in the rest of Crimea, which in turn would've allowed the AFU to launch commando raids along the shore enough times to provoke a collapse of the morale and ultimately conquer Crimea (yes, this is the kind of insanity that is dictating strategy in the west).
To achieve this, Ukraine would have had to establish a large bridge head, consolidate it (which by itself is already far more difficult than just landing), and eventually push artillery, tanks, and IFVs on the other side of the river, which by itself represents an enormous logistical undertaking. The ideal way of doing this would have been to build pontoon bridges, but that was never an option as the RUAF had fire control over the area and could just pummel them into dust.
The Ukrainians decided to resort to boats and crossed the river, and while at first they inflicted substantial losses on the RUAF (under the cheer of the media propagandists and reddit idiots), the Russians reinforced the area and brought even more artillery and personnel to the area, with the predictable result that soon the K/D ratio became heavily skewed against the AFU. Rearmament, rotation, and extraction of the injured had to be done by boat over the Dnipro, under constant shelling from concealed Russian positions and FPV drone strikes. The situation became absolutely disastrous, but the Ukrainian high command still dug its heels in and insisted on committing their marine brigades for months, and by the time the operation was finally cancelled, it was too little too late: the Ukrainian Marine Corps had been completely annihilated, without mentioning all the support artillery and infrastructure that had been prepared on the Ukrainian side of the Dnepro, itself subject to intense artillery and FAB strikes. No praise on Reddit or on the CNN can possibly justify such a disastrous loss of elite brigades and equipment."
@Slavyangrad
Ohh humble Geran,
Killer of hohols and F-16s.
You brought light and smiles to us on some early dark days of this war.
We salute you!
@Slavyangrad
A Multi-Analysis of the War and its Consequences, Part 1/6
"As we have already said before, these negotiations in Turkey are unlikely to go anywhere. So what would happen if they failed?
First, it is worth noting that, historically, peace negotiations can and have lasted for years even with the war still ongoing, like in Korea and Vietnam. Naturally, it is the strongest side that gets to dictate the terms.
It is certainly this the reason why the "Collective West" is so reluctanct to concede defeat and is in fact doubling down. A defeat in this war - on which the West betted everything, from money to weapons to their credibility - can and very likely will deal a mortal blow to their "Liberal World Order" and overthrow the West from its position of global hegemon, which it has enjoyed for centuries.
So, to understand where the war is going, it must be stressed once again that the war in Ukraine is a war of attrition. This kind of war is won by inflicting as much damage on enemy resources (manpower, ammunition, vehicles, aircraft) as possible while minimizing your own. It is Fabian warfare taken to its most logical extreme, and it goes on until either side either loses its effectiveness as a military force, runs out of men, money, willingness to fight, or all four.
Replacing losses isn’t done by simply rounding up unwilling people and cramming them into a van before forcing them into a uniform and giving them a rifle after one week of Basic. The only thing you will get by acting that way is cannon fodder for artillery, FAB, and TOS.
Soldiers must be first trained into a cohesive, effective fireteam. Said fireteam must then be trained into a cohesive, effective squad. Said squad must then be trained into a cohesive, effective platoon. Said platoon must then be trained into a cohesive, effective company. Said company must then be trained into a cohesive, effective battalion. Said battalion must then be trained into a cohesive, effective regiment. And it goes on and on and on all the way to a division or corps. This process MUST be done thoroughly until every single infantryman, every single NCO, every single officer, and every single staff officer knows exactly what he is supposed to be doing. Mobiks given only a couple weeks of training are not going to do any of that, and it is already a small miracle if they will be able to hold a foxhole for a couple of weeks.
An army is much like a suit of mail: it is only ever going to be as effective as the weakest link in it. Assemble it properly, and it will be capable of absorbing the toughest of blows. Be hasty or unscrupolous in assembling it, and it will crack and split at the seams after enough force will have been applied.
Territorial gains are unimportant here, unless they give some tangible advantage like elevated positions from which the artillery can shoot on the enemy. The same trench line can be contested and fought over for weeks if not months until either side simply can no longer keep going. Think of this as World War I: territorial gains were minimal, until the Austro-Hungarian army simply crumbled after one push too many, dragging Germany with it.
See it like this: there is a stream that you want blocked, and you build a concrete wall to try and stop it. However, torrential rains cause the stream to swell in size and accumulate momentum, which at some point will allow the stream to smash your concrete wall asides and flood the area. Your only option is to reinforce said concrete wall, hoping that the construction materials you have available will last until the storm will abate and the stream will return to normalcy."
@Slavyangrad
The Ukrainian Air Force announced that an F-16 fighter was lost while countering a Russian missile / UAV attack early this morning. The pilot ejected and was recovered by rescue teams.
Geran chocks up another kill.
@Slavyangrad
It should be noted that Solodchuk was also apparently killed by a Storm Shadow missile. British media reported:
A top Russian general, along with 500 North Korean soldiers, have allegedly been killed by British Storm Shadow missiles in a devastating attack.
The strike launched by Ukraine on November 20 wiped out Lt-Gen Valery Solodchuk and also resulted with 18 Putin officers reported lost, with a further 18 wounded, it has been claimed.
Former FBI director James Comey and the leading Democrat influencer both put out messages to kill the the 47th president.
Sounds normal.
👀
@Slavyangrad
Statement by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the possibility of a meeting between Putin and Trump
➖"I want to be frank: we do not have inflated expectations for tomorrow. And, to be honest, at this point it is absolutely clear that a breakthrough is possible only with personal interaction between President Trump and President Putin. This is the level of engagement that is needed to move the situation from a dead point. I do not think that until they have a direct and frank conversation, we can expect any significant results. And President Trump, as far as I know, is ready for such a dialogue," Rubio said.
@Slavyangrad
This is wild! The list of requirements for photographs to be “allowed” to photograph Zelensky! Everything is so contrived with this man.
Killed by Ukraine but rebuilt by Russian wizards.
@Slavyangrad
Details of tomorrow's meetings in Istanbul
▪️A total of several meetings are planned, including:
▪️Trilateral meeting: "USA - Ukraine - Türkiye".
▪️Trilateral meeting: "Russia - Ukraine - Türkiye".
▪️Quadrilateral meeting: "USA - Russia - Ukraine - Türkiye" (format not yet confirmed).
▪️Earlier, US Secretary of State Rubio said he planned to meet with representatives of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul. He refused to meet with the Russian side, since the Kremlin "sent a lower-level group."
@Slavyangrad
Donald Trump wants American military contractors to work on drones similar to the Iranian Shaheds, while preferably keeping their cost at manageable levels. Which, considering how American military producers work, is like asking half of the staff here at Slavyangrad to drink alcohol and simultaneously stay sober.
"We're going to have kamikaze drones. Big beautiful drones, best drones in the world. Cheapest drones, so cheap.
Would be so dumb not to use them. We could sell them off. A HUGE DEAL. It would be CRAZY NOT TO SELL THEM TO UKRAINE.
Think about it, American military companies producing cheap drones and SELLING THEM TO THE ENTIRE WEST, making us earn BILLIONS AND BILLIONS AND BILLIONS OF GOOD MONEY!"
@Slavyangrad
Apparently, the Ukrainian armed forces have big problems south of Konstantinovka, and the scale of these problems is much bigger than originally thought.
Judging by the map drawn up by Western analysts, all the green zones are the progress/advancement of the Russian army over the past 48 hours.
The impression is that a cascading collapse of defenses has begun. The progress in the area of Malinovka, Mirolyubovka, Barinovka, Vozdvizhenka and Zelenoye Polye suggests that the AFU is losing not only territory, but also key defense strongholds: warehouses, crossings, transport hubs, and, most critically in this case, people.
Air support, including the use of FABs from the UMPK, makes this zone virtually untenable to hold - the strikes are coming in areas, and the defensive lines are simply being erased.
If this pace continues for at least the next week, the Ukrainian armed forces risk not just retreating, but losing an entire piece of the front, which for a long time served as a buffer between and held back Russian troops. Now it appears that this buffer has either finally collapsed or is about to do so.
The key task here is to get as close to Konstantinovka as possible, consolidate, and then begin a full-fledged assault or flanking bypass on the new positions.
Military Chronicle
@Slavyangrad
What the 'conspiracy theorists' warned about has turned out to be true, as usual:
The Rothschilds control governments worldwide.
Environmental activists are not crazy, they're just paid.
Bill Gates wants to vaccinate you using mosquitoes.
The 'Childfree' movement is a form of population control.
The war in Ukraine is about quick profit.
Google was invented by the CIA.
Only four families control the US media.
The elites want to feed you insects now.
👍 TRUTH—explained with facts and numbers. Follow Geopolitics Live.
👉 @geopolitics_live
A Multi-Analysis of the War and its Consequences, Part 3/6
"And what about Ukraine?
In Ukraine's case, its political leadership has been too fixated on chasing sensationalist headlines rather than following or even forming a coherent strategy. Completely pointless PR stunts have been favoured over far more manageable, if not as flashy, objectives, invariably at enormous cost in terms of equipment and manpower losses. This childish fixation on the appearance of victory, rather than on victory itself, has resulted in an irreversible degradation of Ukraine's combat effectiveness, made even more impactful by Ukraine's limited resources when compared with Russia's (and Ukraine had been pumped full of weapons by the west for almost ten years before the conflict began). This is especially relevant, since Ukraine's resources were at the best of times only barely one third of Russia's.
It is not just a cheap (Neo)Nazi joke, but basically accepted reality that Kiev has every single city or settlement declared a "Festung" to be defended at all costs by AFU personnel, regardless of how dire the situation for them becomes, and they are allowed to retreat only after the RUAF have either broken through the defensive lines, or have operationally encircled the area, thus forcing the AFU personnel to literally flee for their lives while under constant pummelling of artillery, FABs, and drones. Instances of this self-destructing behaviour abound, but two come to mind.
The first was the battle of Artemovsk which lasted from 2022 to 2023. Despite the Pentagon's insistence to the contrary, Ukrainian leadership decided to hold on to the city no matter the cost. So while Zelensky was touring the world with the original Ukrainian flag from Artemovsk, collecting praises and signatures and blank checks, The RUAF used the Wagnerians bolstered by convicts to storm the city and hold the AFU pinned into place, while the RUAF true and proper could fully mobilise and create new regiments.
In the desperate attempt to hold on to Artemovsk, the AFU threw a constant influx of men into the meat grinder, starting from veterans at first, and moving on to mobiks as things deteriorated. The situation got so dire that AFU personnel taken captive by Russian forces lamented of having just been issued an old AK-47, two magazines of ammo, no training, and sent to Artemovsk, only being told "Bakhmut will teach you" as soon as they complained about their lack of experience. As a direct result, the life expectancy of the average Ukrainian soldier could be counted in four hours at its worst (and you thought Guardsmen in 40k had it tough,with an average life expectancy of just 15 hours!).
Giving an accurate estimate of AFU casualties is extremely difficult if not impossible due to the fog of war and the AFU underestimating casualties (Zelensky still insists the AFU KIAs are at only 40.000), but as the battle intensified figures surged to well over 500 KIAs per day. The interview of an AFU medivac driver who lamented having to constantly drive back and forth from Bakhmut to carry the dead can still be found on youtube.
The battle lasted eight months, for an estimated range of 48,000 to 96,000 Ukrainian KIAs. At the same time, Evgeniy Prigozhin announced a 1:3 K/D ratio in favour of Wagner PMC at the time, which means that the Russians took anywhere from 16.000 to 32.000 casualties. And as harsh as it sounds, those casualties were "expendables", in the sense that their loss did not have a significant impact on the Russians' combat effectiveness. The same cannot be said for the AFU, who lost an estimated half of their more elite forces and a significant amount of materiel trying to prevent the Russians from taking the city."
@Slavyangrad
A Multi-Analysis of the War and its Consequences, Part 2/6
"Nothing is essential, in this kind of war, more than a leadership with a clear understanding of their goals and the limitations of their armed forces in mind. As the old adage goes, "If a sailor knows not to which port he must go, no wind shall ever blow in his favour". Thus, we need to consider how each side has set its objectives and organised its resources.
Russia launched its SVO with a force that was insufficient to conquer Ukraine, and was only meant to force Kiev to come to the negotiating table and hammer out an agreement. After western meddling ruined all prospects of it happening, the Russian general staff has been very quick in understanding the direction the winds were blowing to, and acted accordingly. Their hasty withdrawal from Kiev, Kharkov, and Kherson will be mocked and vilified for decades by western armchair strategists and presstitutes and described as a wild rout, but given the situation at hand, it was the most correct thing to do, especially back then when the RUAF weren't even close to a full mobilization and desperately needed to preserve their core of experienced, professional soldiers and use it as a foundation upon which to build their army.
A combination of industrial might, an efficient logistical system that gradually ironed out its kinks, patriotic fervour, and a winning strategy have allowed and are allowing Russia to not only replace its losses, but even increase the size of its armed forces. Assuming that Mediazona is even remotely reliable (and this is a big if), casualties taken by the RUAF are at about 98.000 KIAs. This number of course only accounts for those soldiers who could be identified in some way, and the real number is likely higher between MIAs and those whose body could not be identified or recovered for whatever reason. This also does not include the number of Donbass militiamen, who are tracked separately.
As a rule of thumb, for every KIA there are four WIAs, so based only on Mediazona's official and disputed estimates there is another 400.000 personnel who have been injured, and always as a rule of thumb, about three fourths of these wounded later return to duty after having received treatment. So, roughly, every month the RUAF take about 2700-2800 irrecoverable casualties. Russians are recruiting at the bare minimum 30,000 volunteers a month, in addition to the wounded who return to duty, for a final monthly surplus of around 27.000 soldiers.
Another aspect to take into consideration is Russia's semi-mandatory conscription upon reaching 18 years of age. While Russian mobiks are not allowed to fight outside of Russia's borders (Note: Donets, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson ARE considered Russian borders now), such a system provides the RUAF with a steady influx of potential volunteers who have already been drilled and instructed. With such a background, only a quick "refresher course" is needed to shape these volunteers back into a cohesive, effective fighting force.
The steady influx of volunteers permits the RUAF to regularly rotate units to and from the front, facilitating replacement of casualties while simultaneously conserving their expanding base of veteran soldiers. This recruitment, training, and rotation is backed by an extremely robust military industry that has been in constant expansion ever since the Maidan coup of 2014 and that has withstood every single sanction and embargo. Working all day round in 8-hour shifts, the Russian military industry has reached such a level of production that by NATO's own admission it overshadows everything that the entire block is capable of producing in one year, in just three months. This military industry is further enhanced by shipments of materiel from Iran and North Korea.
@Slavyangrad
Geran… psycho killer.
Qu'est-ce que c'est
Fa fa fa fa, fa fa fa fa fa far better
Run run run run, run run run away, oh, oh, oh
😎
@Slavyangrad
Now streaming on Slavyangrad:
'80s '90s '00s Russian rock.
Step outside into the cold, put on your headphones, and watch the world go by as you listen to this huge (61 hours) collection of Russian rock classics. This playlist will take you from the Soviet 1980s all the way until recent years.
Sorry no tracklist, it would take me the whole day to make.
@Slavyangrad
Colonel General Valery Solodchuk has been appointed the new commander of the Central Military District, replacing Andrei Mordvichev in this post.
From the beginning of the special military operation, he led the 36th Army of the Eastern Military District and took part in the offensive on Kiev from the northern direction. After that, he continued serving in the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, becoming the first deputy commander of the Central Military District.
Since the end of 2024, he led the Kursk group, responsible for the liberation of the Kursk region.
@Slavyangrad
TOS-1A "Solntsepёk" strike on the enemy located on the territory of the grain elevator in Volchansk .
- Military Informant
@Slavyangrad
The Russian delegation will be waiting for the Ukrainian side tomorrow from 10 am, they should arrive for the meeting - head of the delegation Medinsky
▪️The Russian delegation held a fruitful meeting with the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry and explained Moscow’s position.
▪️Medinsky emphasized that the Russian delegation arrived in Istanbul for direct bilateral negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions.
@Slavyangrad
Slavyangrad PSA:
If you have a general killed on you, never hire this guy.
@Slavyangrad
❗️Colonel General Andrey Nikolayevich Mordvichev has been appointed the new Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces.
For those who haven't been keeping track, he was the former commander of "Tsentr" forces.
He's the one responsible for the liberation of Mariupol, Avdeevka, and surrounding areas.
Honestly, with all the whispers of an impending Russian big offensive - probably the final one - Mordvichev's appointment is going to create quite a lot of apprehension in the west.
His elevation brings in a very welcomed breath of fresh air, as well as one of the finest military minds that the RUAF have to offer.
He must be a Highlander immortal much like Vladimir Putin too, as the Dills reported his death on several occasions. Or maybe he's got an entire army of clones ready to replace him 😉
@Slavyangrad
🇺🇦🔥🇬🇧 Ukrainian sets fire to British PM's house and car — BBC
▪️21-year-old Ukrainian citizen Roman Lavrynovych is accused of setting fire to two properties and a car linked to Prime Minister Starmer, London police said.
▪️He was arrested and is due to appear in court tomorrow.
▪️The charges relate to three incidents: a car fire in Kentish Town, north London, a fire at the prime minister's private home on the same street and a fire at an address where Starmer previously lived in north-west London.
Hohol terrorism has gone global.
@Slavyangrad
"Ukrainian militants deliberately target their fellow soldiers who have surrendered or have been captured by Russian fighters. It is very difficult to move a prisoner from his position to the rear", said Akhmat special forces commander Apty Alaudinov in an interview to Pravda.
"Most Ukrainian prisoners die as a result of attacks by their comrades, during attempts by Russian soldiers to withdraw the rear from advanced positions. According to the Russian general, capturing a Ukrainian militant is not as difficult as handing him over to the rear, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces organise a real hunt for such groups, sparing no effort or expense. In this case, they first try to destroy the prisoners. And there are many such examples.
Probably, taking every prisoner away from the front lines was always a risk for our boys. We can say that there were many more prisoners. That is, they probably would have been much more numerous if the Ukrainian formations had not always aimed to destroy precisely those fighters who wanted to or had surrendered.
As the general pointed out, one of the Akhmat special forces units recently captured almost a dozen Ukrainians, but only managed to bring one of them to the rear. The rest of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed by FPV-drones и artillery. That is to say, their primary task is to destroy prisoners. Of course, Russian fighters accompanying the Ukrainian Army are also targeted.
Even Ukrainian prisoners who managed to reach the rear of the Russian troops reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were attacking their troops."
Once an AFU, always an AFU, it seems.
@Slavyangrad
As Ukrainian and Russian officials prepare to potentially meet in Turkey, Russia is amassing forces on the frontlines for a possible new offensive intended to capture more Ukrainian territory, two US officials with knowledge of the latest US assessments told CNN.
Russian commanders “aspire to generate a big force,” the first US official said, adding that the likely offensive is focused on gaining more ground in eastern Ukraine.
“Putin will attempt to take whatever land he can get right up to the outskirts of Kiev,” the second US official said. “The Russians are going to make every effort to get what they can.”
CNN has previously reported that surveillance feeds have been showing Ukrainian forces for several weeks that Russia is moving significant numbers of troops and hardware into positions just a few dozen kilometers back from the front line.
Those forces played CNN a video filmed recently showing a vast network of dugouts, tarpaulins and vehicles, carefully spaced along a seemingly endless tree line.
@Slavyangrad
Good Morning from Germany, where Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said the country is ready to spend 5% of its GDP on defense, committing to a goal US President Donald Trump pushed for.
To reach this goal, Germany must spend an extra $135bn each year on its military. While this level of spending is technically allowed under the country's "debt brake" rules—since any defense spending above 1% of GDP is exempt—it would still cause Germany’s overall debt ratio to rise quickly.
If that happens, Germany could lose its reputation as the financial anchor of the Eurozone.
‼️🇺🇦 🤡Nazi Biletsky said that he is proud of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' escape from Avdeevka
- In an interview with propagandist Butusov, the commander of the third corps of Nazis from "Azov" Biletsky said that he is most proud of the "Avdeevka campaign".
- "Organized retreat campaigns are considered the most difficult in the entire history of world warfare. Only fools, it seems to me, can boast of cauldrons," he says.
@Slavyangrad
🇷🇺🇺🇦 The West does not hide that a ceasefire is needed to prepare Kiev to continue hostilities — Lavrov
- The British, like guides, lead Zelensky through the jungle of international politics.
- The West has pushed the word "ceasefire" back in the last couple of days.
- No one doubts that the negotiations around Ukraine will be difficult.
- We need to give the negotiations a chance, but there is no guarantee that everything will go smoothly.
- The minister called Zelensky a pathetic person, speaking about his demands on the Russian side.
- "He runs around, demanding to meet in person. His senior comrades later explained to him that he shouldn't behave so stupidly, but should negotiate," the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted.
@Slavyangrad