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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
AMERICA AT A CROSSROAD, Part 1/2 — Part 2 Here
As expected, Israel's opening gambit didn't go exactly according to plan.
In all likelihood, Netanyahu and the ziocon Deep State convinced Trump that a shock-and-awe decapitation strike would have inflicted a decisive blow on Iran and broken the back of the Persian Lion, making it accept Washington's diktats. However, as it often happens to the ziocons' plans, expectations and reality don't go hand in hand.
Israel's opener was a classic overwhelming first strike, followed by a quick series of attacks meant to cripple the enemy's potential to defend itself and give the attacker complete carte blanche. This plan hinged on a critical factor: Iran sitting by idly and doing nothing for years. This was definitely not the case.
Most of the strategic assets have been moved underground, at great depths, where Israeli strikes cannot reach them. Many of the AD batteries that Israeli media gleefully reported as "destroyed" turned out to be decoys.
So, while Israel burns through much of its materiel in the opening gambit, hoping it will be enough to close the match on its onset, Iran seems intent on playing the long game, sitting on a stockpile of missiles and suicide drones estimated at the very least in the thousands. The result of this disparity is evident: Iran has the luxury of deciding whether or not to escalate, while Israeli leadership can only do that.
Today's attacks against Iran have been carried out mostly through suicide drones, car bombings, and sabotage, with Israeli missile strikes having already reduced in frequency.
If this is an indication of Israel's limited options, it does not bode well for the country's ability to sustain a prolonged war with Iran. The geographical difference alone is staggering: Iran's territory is infinitely vaster than Israel, with dispersed strategic installations and plentiful mountains that offer concealment and shelter. Israel, a much tinier country, has all of its installations, roads, and cities far more clumped together. This is combined with Iran having disseminated a lot of decoy installations all over its territory.
In contrast to the expected result of a quick decapitating strike, Iranian forces have tanked the blow quite well, quickly replacing the slain commanders with new ones, and are giving Israel a tit-for-tat response by launching missiles at the same type of targets that Israel is attacking in turn. The difference here, as the Iranian leadership itself says, is that they're using almost exclusively their old equipment, with the odd modern hypersonic missile or two.
It is evident that Iran can afford playing this game of feint-parry-reposte far longer than Israel, thanks to its immense supply of missiles. For how long, it's hard to say. Weeks at the minimum, maybe months. Not only that, Iran now controls the escalation game, as at any time it could decide to either increase its attacks, or unleash the newest missiles they have available.
Israel, meanwhile, may soon find itself running out of options, especially since the same covert op tricks become increasingly more difficult to pull off the more they are used. Of course, there is also the possibility of using a nuclear warhead, but this comes with its own set of problems as it'd make Israel even more of a world pariah state, and it would also be a defacto admission of having them, something that by official policy they still deny. And due to how nuclear strikes work, Israel would have to use most if not all of them, out of the desperate hope that there won't be anybody left in Iran capable of carpet bombing them with all their missiles at once, which would be the equivalent of a nuclear strike due to how tight Israeli cities and settlements are located on the map.
Enter Washington.
Part 2 Here
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Israel’s National Security Council head Tzachi Negev on the Reuters story that Trump blocked an Israeli assassination attempt against Khamenei: “A pike from the land of pikemen”—a Hebrew expression meaning completely made up or utter nonsense.
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The Volunteer Corps publishes footage of the destruction of a UAV control center and an ammunition depot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivske direction.
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—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 BREAKING: An Iranian missile impacted Ben Gurion Airport, Tel Aviv
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—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 Haifa following the Iranian ballistic missile strike
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CONFIRMED: Impacts somewhere in southern Israel
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⚡⚡⚡🇮🇷🇵🇸 Interesting features of Iranian missiles recorded.
@medmannews
IRAN'S ARMED FORCES WARN ISRAELIS TO LEAVE THE VICINITY OF 'VITAL AREAS' IN VIDEO STATEMENT - STATE TV
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Professor Diesen: Trump could help broker a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
I hope this time Trump is sincere and can ensure a ceasefire,
Destruction of Ukrainian positions of the 39th separate brigade by a guided missile Kh-39 in the area of the settlement Tyaginka, Kherson region.
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Reuters citing two U.S. officials reports President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 WATCH: A direct impact in Haifa from earlier
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Reuters: China has made no commitment to export key magnets for US defense needs.
China has not committed to issuing export permits for a range of specialized rare earth magnets that are strategically important to the U.S. defense industry, including fighter jets and missile systems,
Major destruction in several buildings in occupied Haifa
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—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 Initial reports of an entire collapsed building in Haifa
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—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: Missiles struck Nevatim airbase, from where Israel strikes the Gaza Strip daily
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Zelensky continues to ask for increased sanctions against Russia:
The desire to conquer and destroy us has not gone away. I am absolutely sure: this is his doctrine. He really wants Ukraine - but the way he sees it with his own eyes. Certainly not the way we see it - a free, independent, European country. And that is why Trump can stop him. But for this, Putin must lose money. That is the only way. By losing money, he will not be able to build up the army and increase military spending. Then he will start having internal problems. And for this, sanctions must be introduced.
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Missile fall on military airport in Rehovot
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The US military is operating in the air, on land and at sea to shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel in response to its attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership, tilting DC toward more direct involvement in the widening conflict.
Iran has fired about 200 ballistic missiles in four barrages and more than 200 drones toward Israeli territory so far in response to multiple waves of Israeli strikes, an Israeli military official said. Before the retaliatory strikes even began, US jet fighters, destroyers and ground-based AD systems had positioned to help counter any attack, according to US officials.
The US played a central role in defending Israel from Iranian attacks last year, when the Biden admin assembled forces to contain Iran’s attacks as the longtime foes traded blows on 2 occasions. These penetrated Israel’s antimissile defenses, raising fears that another attack could inflict serious damage, particularly if it targeted civilian areas.
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Israel Determined to Complete Task of Eliminating Iran's 'Double Threat', Fighters in Skies Over Burning Tehran, Netanyahu Says
Other statements by the Israeli Prime Minister:
▪️Regime change in Iran is possible as a result of Israeli strikes.
▪️Our intelligence has established that Iran was planning to transfer nuclear weapons to the Houthis;
▪️We will do whatever is necessary - Israeli Prime Minister commenting on the news that Trump vetoed the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader;
▪️The Iranian regime is very weak now;
▪️We destroyed the reactor in Isfahan, and without it it is impossible to develop nuclear weapons. We destroyed the main nuclear facility in Natanz and will do more if necessary.
He also noted Iran had been working on bringing back the T-Rex and velociraptors, saying Iran planned to release them into Europe and the US.
@Slavyangrad
The likelihood that the US will join the war against Iran on Israel's side is indeed growing. The main indicator here is time. The longer Israel fails to complete the operation and achieve the necessary results, the greater the pressure on Washington to get involved.
Israel obviously did not achieve a satisfactory result in the first 48 hours. The strikes were powerful, but not fatal. Iran did not collapse, did not capitulate, did not stop missile launches and work on the nuclear program. Moreover, the IRGC system, after being partially decapitated, regained control and went on the counterattack. All this suggests that the operation is turning into a protracted one, and Israel simply cannot pull it off alone.
Against this background, there are already indirect signs of the US preparing for possible intervention. The State Department has urgently called on all American citizens to leave Iran. The evacuation of citizens always precedes open military action. The Iranian side is giving the US formal reasons for intervention. The statement by Ebrahim Rezai, a member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, about the need to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is an open political challenge. It records that Iran is ready to take a risk and publicly legitimise the movement towards the creation of nuclear weapons. And this is precisely the red flag under which the US easily creates the need for military intervention under the auspices of security.
If Israel fails to complete the operation on its own in the next 72-96 hours, the military-political pressure on the US to enter the game will become irreversible. And after public signals from Tehran (about leaving the NPT, about new missile strikes, about blocking Hormuz), Washington will have practically no room to manoeuvre. Where the US appears, NATO infrastructure appears. From this moment on, the conflict ceases to be Middle Eastern and transforms into a global one.
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Elon Musk's father said that Russian media are being banned in Europe out of fear.
When you forbid something, as a rule, you are afraid of something. You are afraid - that's why you forbid,— said Elon Musk's father, businessman Errol Musk.
You can see it in terms of elections in different places. In Romania, in Poland and so on. And then, of course, Hungary. And, of course, in Germany – the AfD,— he pointed out.