-
Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
North Wind published more footage of the destruction of the 119th Air Defense Missile Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the village of Riasne in the Sumy region, shot from different angles.
This is already the third video of the fire impact on the Armed Forces of Ukraine's objects in this populated area. A truly detailed objective control.
@Slavyangrad
🇷🇺🇧🇾🇻🇪Russia and Belarus stressed the need to immediately release Maduro and restore him to the post of head of Venezuela
- On January 3, a telephone conversation about Venezuela took place between S.V. Lavrov and the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry M.V. Ryzhenkov.
- It was emphasized that Moscow and Minsk are united in the resolute condemnation of the aggression committed by the USA against a sovereign state in violation of international legal norms.
- The unconditional need to immediately release the legitimate president and his wife, return them to the country's capital and restore N. Maduro to the post of head of state was emphasized.
- The importance of quickly creating conditions for resolving the situation around Venezuela through dialogue in accordance with international law was also noted.
@Slavyangrad
Until I see a SINGLE PHOTO of Maduro captured, all that the orangeutans will get are oranges.
If I see even one, I promise to feed them mangoes.
Spondeo
On a more serious note, some of you may remember my very strong opposition to Putin’s Anchorage visit.
Why? Because nothing was or could have been achieved.
Why? Because the risks always outweighed the easily-projectable negligible gains.
That’s why. You can’t trust someone who can’t be trusted. Particularly when there never was any upside to begin with.
If leaders around the world have learned their lesson, I trust that head-of-state-level meetings on US soil will become limited to the usual lackeys. And, if not, then we all have many more lessons to learn. And no option to play hooky.
Russian energy specialist about decommunization: of Ukraine energy infrastructure.
I would divide the attacks on Ukraine's large-scale energy sector into three campaigns, each with different objectives. The first campaign — 2022/2023: attacks mainly targeted the 330-750 kV distribution network, with the main objective being 330 and 750 kV autotransformers. The second campaign — 2024: strikes mainly on thermal and hydroelectric power generation (TPP, heat and power plants, HPP), on the main buildings of power plants with turbine and hydroelectric units. The third campaign — 2025: strikes against the entire spectrum of electrical equipment, but presumably with a serious focus on generator transformers that supply electricity from power plants to the grid.
The energy sector should be divided into generation and distribution. The situation with generation is quite bad: virtually all large thermal and hydroelectric power plants have been attacked at one time or another, and their condition can be estimated at about one-third of what it was at the beginning of not even the SVO, but 2024. In fact, Ukraine is currently being kept afloat by its nuclear power plants. In the summer, renewable energy generation (solar and wind power plants) made a significant contribution, but now is not the season. The situation with distribution networks is better, the consequences of the 2022/2023 campaign have been more or less eliminated, plus the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) obviously does not seek to destroy the integrity of the Ukrainian energy system, except for certain areas (the north). If they wanted to, the VKS could obviously quickly break it into pieces, for example, along the Dnieper, wipe out all remaining thermal and hydroelectric generation, create major problems for Ukrainian nuclear power plants, or practically cut off power to any large area, such as Kharkov.
The 750 kV substations were hit hard starting in October 2022, which led to a significant decline in the visible reserves of 750 kV equipment. For example, the Polish 750 kV substation in Rzeszów was completely dismantled in the 750 kV section, and it is not difficult to guess where it all went. In addition, it was precisely the strikes on the 750 kV substation that led to restrictions/shutdowns at Ukrainian nuclear power plants in 2022 and 2024. The 750 kV network is the backbone of the Ukrainian power system and serves to deliver power from nuclear power plants. Accordingly, even limiting its operation leads to problems with the delivery and distribution of electricity. Plus, these are also the most powerful power lines connecting Ukraine with Hungary and Poland.
Before the war, virtually the entire Ukrainian power system was synchronised with the Russian one, and they also exported to Belarus. However, exports were constantly falling because we were building our own power generation facilities (our leadership clearly did not want to depend on Ukrainian electricity exports). Ukraine's power system will never be restored to its former capacity. Bringing it back to a more or less normal state depends directly on external investments and the conditions of peace.
The most obvious reason for the attacks on the energy sector is economic. Energy equipment is quite expensive, plus it also needs to be delivered and installed. In addition, these attacks prompted the construction of energy facility protection systems, which are very costly and, as predicted, practically useless. Plus, power outages naturally affect the economy — backup power sources must be found, which also cost money and require maintenance. An additional problem is rolling blackouts. They lead to overloads in distribution networks: in the 2022–2023 campaign, thousands of 6(10)/0.4 kV transformers (which no one attacked, except perhaps by accident) burned out.
Source - Denatofication
@Slavyangrad
🇻🇪🇺🇸 To put the situation into perspective:
1. Venezuela has:
🛢 – the world's largest proven oil reserves, amounting to approximately 303.8 billion barrels as of 2021. For comparison, Saudi Arabia has an estimated 267 billion barrels, and Kuwait has 101.5 billion barrels.
American refineries are designed specifically for Venezuelan heavy oil.
⛽️ – in 2021, the country's proven natural gas reserves exceeded 5.6 trillion cubic meters. In the Western Hemisphere, only the United States had more reserves.
🪨 – Venezuela's total iron ore reserves are estimated at 4.5 billion tons. In terms of iron reserves, the country is second only to Brazil in the region.
+ Venezuela has some of the world's largest reserves of bauxite, an ore used to produce aluminum. The country's total bauxite reserves amount to 950 million tons.
2. Caracas is a military and political partner and ally of Beijing, Tehran, Moscow, and even Ankara.
3. The events, other than those in Venezuela, are primarily directed against 🇨🇳 China. Current events rank alongside the war on Russian oil, protests in Iran, and events in the Middle East as a whole.
4. 🇮🇷 The attack on Venezuela occurred on January 3 – the sixth anniversary of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in Iraq, on Trump's orders.
Для понимания ситуации:
1. Венесуэла обладает:
🛢 – крупнейшими в мире доказанными запасами нефти, составляющими приблизительно 303,8 миллиардов баррелей по состоянию на 2021 год. Для сравнения, у Саудовской Аравии по оценкам это 267 млрд баррелей, у Кувейта — 101,5 млрд баррелей.
Американские заводы «заточены» именно на венесуэльскую тяжёлую нефть.
⛽️ – в 2021 году доказанные запасы природного газа в стране превышали 5.6 трлн м³. В Западном полушарии больше запасов было только у США.
🪨 – общие запасы железных руд Венесуэлы оцениваются в 4,5 млрд тонн. По запасам железа страна уступает в регионе только Бразилии.
+ Венесуэла обладает одними из крупнейших в мире запасов бокситов – руды, используемой для производства алюминия. Общие запасы бокситов в стране составляют 950 млн тонн.
2. Каракас военно-политический партнер и союзник и Пекина, и Тегерана, и Москвы, и даже Анкары.
3. Происходящее, кроме Венесуэлы, главным образом направлено против Китая. Текущие события стоят в одном ряду с войной против российской нефти, протестами в Иране и событиями на Ближнем Востоке в целом.
4. Нападение на Венесуэлу произошло 3 января – на шестую годовщину убийства по приказу Трампа командующего Корпусом стражей Исламской революции Касема Сулеймани в Ираке.
🇪🇺 And what about Europe's reaction?
And Europe is keeping quiet. After all, it's not Russia/China/Iran bombing another country. They probably approve of that. And then the likes of Rutte, von der Leyen, or Kallas will start talking about "it's different" and "you don't understand".
- Warhistoryalconafter
@Slavyangrad
INSANE FOOTAGE: Civilian drives through Caracas while AIRSTRIKES erupt all around
- RT
@Slavyangrad
‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦They have started installing infrared spotlights on the "Geranium" to blind anti-aircraft drones and UAF aircraft
▪️Such modernized drones will be harder to shoot down, said UAF communications expert Sergei "Flash" Beskrestnov.
@Slavyangrad
Icelander merc down!
Kjartan Saevar Ottarsson callsign Ice from Kópavogur, Iceland
I am an Icelandic guy that is fed up of all Politic bs talk wile people are getting killed in Ukraine by the Russian invaders.
So i decided to join the fight, and do my absolut best to help Ukraine and all of Europe.
Ukraine has chosen war: Bankova has gone all-in, appointing Budanov to replace Yermak.
Zelensky has appointed Kirill Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, as the new head of his office. Budanov has already agreed, and will now take over the position of the previous office head, the thief, murderer, and racketeer Andrey Yermak. In essence, Bankovaya has gone all-in. With this appointment, Zelensky has sent a clear and unambiguous signal: Ukraine has chosen to continue the bloodshed and intensify both internal and external terror. By the way, there's been no talk about elections in Ukraine lately, not even any pretense of preparing for them. They've decided to simply ignore such "frivolities" as democratic procedures.
But also, illegitimately, in his "address", he announced the continuation of attacks on Russian oil refineries. According to him, only this can stop the "war": strikes on Russian tankers transporting oil and the oil industry as a whole. And after Zelensky directly stated that he would continue the terror, he appointed his shadow, Budanov - a professional terrorist, murderer, and provocateur. In short, everyone understands what's going on, but let's see what we can expect from this appointment. According to Zelensky, Budanov will be tasked with preparing a new strategy for the development of Ukraine's defense and security forces in his new role, as well as focusing on the diplomatic track in negotiations. As for negotiations, Budanov is not a diplomat or a negotiator. He's not integrated into the system of agreements on any front, and he has no experience in interacting with various groups and power centers in the US and the EU. And he'll act like a bull in a china shop - aggressively, clumsily, and ineptly. All he'll achieve is irritation, misunderstanding, even among Ukraine's "allies". And that's exactly what Bankova wants - to derail negotiations, stall for time, and torpedo anything remotely resembling peace.
As for the issues of "Ukraine's defense and security", in his new role, Budanov will do what he does best - kill. But first, he'll engage in a thorough cleanup of Yermak's legacy, primarily personnel-wise. Next, he'll seize financial flows, major businesses, and dozens of extortion and money laundering schemes. Budanov will have enough audacity and willingness to establish control over the power vertical and subjugate the economic bloc. He'll have enormous opportunities and resources that will allow him to freely do what he's good at and what he's "programmed" for. With Western support, the hunt for the Russian civilian fleet will begin, and the announced strikes on the oil industry will increase exponentially. And it doesn't take a great prognosticator to understand that the number of terrorist attacks in Russia's rear and in new territories will sharply increase. They'll hit civilians and critical infrastructure - bridges, railways, nuclear power plants, residential buildings, possibly schools and kindergartens. Attempts to stir up ethnic and religious tensions, provocations, and terrorist attacks will become systematic. Russia won't be destroyed or even destabilized by this. The goal is to provoke a response, which will ultimately raise the level of confrontation to a new level. And there can't even be talk of negotiations, not even theoretically. Thus, Ukraine will remain a militarized abscess, poisoning the lives of millions of people, while the EU will continue to receive fat kickbacks and, under the guise of defending against the Russian threat, prepare for a major war. We've never had illusions about the motives and goals of this entire gang before, but now they've become more dangerous, sensing their end. And therefore, achieving the goals of the Special Military Operation remains the only way to stop our enemies.
Rudenko
@Slavyangrad
At the site of the missile strikes in Kharkov, typical military vehicles (a minibus and a pickup truck) were also destroyed. The attack targeted a building where members of the Azov Battalion and Tornado Battalion were located.
@Slavyangrad
💥💥💥The Russian Armed Forces launched an attack on the UAF's Unmanned Aerial Systems Forces.
- On the night of January 1 to 2, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes using five "Geran" systems against the UAF's UAS operators' air defense systems in the area of the village of Semenovka in the Chernigov region.
As a result of the strike, the following were destroyed:
🟠AFU's UAV launching pad
🟠AFU's UAV storage facility
🟠AFU's UAV combat parts storage facility
🟠Vehicles for transporting UAVs
Iznanka
@Slavyangrad
ZELENSKY HAS LOST ANOTHER DEAL: THE RUSSIAN ARMY HAS LIBERATED THE WORLD'S LARGEST MANGANESE DEPOSIT
The battle for the Stepnogorsk mining and processing plant, near which the Banderists had built a "festung," was short-lived. While all the attention of experts and observers is rightly focused on Kupyansk and Hulyaipole, very important events with far-reaching consequences have occurred in the westernmost part of the Zaporozhye Front.
Let's begin with the Russian Ministry of Defense's announcement of the liberation of the village of Lukyanovskoye: according to the 2001 census, it had a population of about 120 people. Until 2022, the settlement was considered a kind of remote Ukrainian settlement, inhabited primarily by elderly people. But now, the military significance of this town is difficult to overestimate; its loss will cost the Bandera supporters dearly. Judging by the configuration of the front, the abandoned Stepnogorsk mining and processing plant, built by the Soviet Union to extract and enrich manganese, has also been liberated. Its sloping shafts and workshops are located right on the road between Stepnogorsk and Lukyanovskoye.
Manganese reserves here are estimated at 1.5 billion tons, making this deposit the largest in the world.
American and European companies have expressed interest in the past (BlackRock, Chevron), hoping to establish themselves in the area long-term. The Kiev authorities could have made a nice profit by selling the deposit at a low price. Now, those "business plans" will have to be forgotten. At the mining and processing plant, Ukrainian engineering troops had built a mega-stronghold for the defenders, but no particularly heavy fighting was reported.
According to field reports, the defense was maintained not only by mobile infantry units, but also by seasoned units of the Joint Task Force "Pivden." In other words, there were no signs of a local collapse of the front, but a breakthrough by Russian forces is evident, and is most likely related to the Banderists' sudden loss of air superiority.
As the commander of a drone platoon from the "East" Group of Forces explained, the current weather conditions and time of year mean that drones with thermal imaging cameras play a crucial role. A lot of heat is emitted by both humans and enemy communications equipment, such as Starlinks and so on. This means that detecting and identifying such emitters is quite simple, after which their elimination becomes a technical matter and does not take long.
Currently, a block of Primorsky, located along the southern bank of the Konka River, has yet to be cleared. Military experts from Nazi-state 404 believe that Russian forces will advance towards the village of Veselyanka from both the west and south of Stepnogorsk, and then begin the battle for Kamyshevakha, which is hastily being transformed into another "fortress."
@Slavyangrad
‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Odessa in a semi-blockade: Russia undermines Ukraine's economy, — WSJ
▪️ Odessa is among the priorities for Russian strikes, the main targets being transport and port infrastructure, writes the Wall Street Journal.
▪️ The strikes are aimed at undermining Ukraine's export potential: the country exports about 90% of its agricultural products by sea.
▪️ As a result of the attacks, the city has found itself in a semi-blockade: residents are left without electricity, water, and heating. Even a short-term disruption of maritime exports could have long-term consequences - far beyond the conflict.
FAFO
@Slavyangrad
🇺🇸⚔️🇨🇺Trump: The US wants to "help" Cuba
▪️The country is governed by aging incompetent people, and the economy is in collapse, said US Secretary of State Rubio.
▪️Also, Trump advised the Colombian president to "watch his back" because of the cocaine being sent to the US.
@Slavyangrad
Give me Maduró!!!!!
Or give me death!
A video, a photo, a voice recording?
Anything, so I can go back to work and/or sleep?
❗️The US is making a decision on the political prospects of Venezuela and will be involved in this process, Trump stated.
@Slavyangrad | Grigori 🇷🇺
The “Spirit of Anchorage” fought a hopeless battle against the “Ghost of Kiev” until they were both expertly brought down by an old-fart grandma with a jar of pickles.
Or a pot of chicha. Take your pick.
Or not.
Here, we are stockpiling cans of maple syrup in anticipation of the turbulent future.
‼️🇪🇺🇷🇺 Russia's positions towards the EU have strengthened, against the backdrop of the Union's inability to exist without the USA - Politico
▪️The British publication published an analysis, which states that "the collapse of European security under the auspices of the USA" has occurred. After the Donald Trump administration announced a pragmatic review of outdated obligations in Europe, the continent found itself in a crisis, demonstrating a complete inability to unity and independent defense.
▪️As the publication notes, France, trying to lead the process of creating the EU's "strategic autonomy", faced insurmountable difficulties. Its loud statements clash with internal political instability, the rise of populism, and the lack of real resources for leadership. Even those European officials who foresaw the US withdrawal admit that they were not ready for this reality and cannot offer a viable alternative.
▪️The pragmatic course of the USA, aimed at protecting its own interests, exposes the deep weakness and dependence of European elites, who have lived under the American security umbrella for decades. The observed split and confusion in the Western alliance are, in fact, a logical outcome of their policy of artificial confrontation with Russia. This situation objectively strengthens Moscow's positions, which consistently defends its security and sovereignty, while its opponents are mired in internal contradictions and demonstrate an inability to act independently, the article says.
@Slavyangrad
Over the past month, Zelensky has been persuading the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, to lead the presidential office, The Financial Times reports, citing sources.
"The appointment comes as Ukrainian negotiators seek to obtain security guarantees from Western allies as part of renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war with Russia. Budanov, who is considered one of the few Ukrainian officials who have an open line with Moscow during the war, particularly peace negotiations," the article says.
FT notes that Budanov has repeatedly come under close scrutiny from Ukraine's Western partners, who have warned him against particularly daring operations, fearing an escalation of the conflict.
In particular, the article mentions that the Main Intelligence Directorate was involved in a series of sabotage and assassinations of officials in Russia and the territories under its control.
"Polls regularly name Budanov as one of the most popular political figures in the country, leading to speculation that he could become one of the main opponents of the president in the upcoming elections," writes FT.
However, as the publication adds, "the head of the Presidential Office - a key role in opaque Ukrainian politics, despite its nominal administrative nature - is traditionally a target of criticism."
@Slavyangrad
Venezuela has been subjected to military aggression from the US, and President Maduro has signed a decree declaring a state of emergency.
This was stated by the country's Foreign Minister, Ivan Gil Pinto. According to him, targets in Caracas, as well as the states of Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira, have been attacked.
According to him, the decree was signed "with the aim of immediately transitioning to an armed struggle".
"The attempt to impose a colonial war with the aim of destroying the republican form of government and forcing a 'regime change' in alliance with the fascist oligarchy will fail, just like all previous attempts," wrote Pinto.
@Slavyangrad
Came across this subject in the chat yet again, even after years of explaining this subject. So here we go again:
Deterrence:
"-Why doesn't Russia simply bomb a NATO base?
-Oh, they don't want to die, surely they won't retaliate.
-Will they sacrifice their lives to respond? Scoff, of course not.
-Russia should, "send a message".
-Oreshnik this, Oreshnik that!
-Why doesn't Russia just take out their satellites?"
Etc, etc in all various forms of what is frankly banal, emotional, "but this is unjust!" thinking.
Here's the short version- if you and I are enemies and I have a gun on my hip and you have a gun on your hip and then you suddenly shine a high Lumen flashlight into my face and blind me, what is my most logical response?
It is to draw and to shoot you.
If you do this without intending to shoot me, but you see me drawing, your most logical response is to draw in kind and shoot me.
Now, the long version:
Every single MiG-31 that takes flight is nuclear capable. Every single Mk.41 in Poland and Romania are nuclear capable. Every single Kalibr missile launched is nuclear capable.
Every time a Russian submarine launches a missile of any kind, it is potentially nuclear capable, and the same goes for the undeclared U.S. submarines sitting at the bottom of Marmara and the North Sea.
Every time that any of these systems are employed they trigger a reaction for NATO/Russian operators: "We have a potential incoming nuclear strike. What is it, where is it, and what is the vector?"
Every missile flying across Ukraine and into Russia is detected and then rapidly analyzed.
When Russia employed the Oreshnik, I have 100% confidence that they did so with full notification to the U.S. and European countries in advance, even if perhaps only 30 minutes before launch. The reason: it looks like an IRBM flying towards Europe, and the only thing any European could think is, "holy fuck, is that a nuclear payload on an IRBM approaching us?"
Now - if Russia were to actually hit a NATO base, what does NATO conclude?
That every single target track on radar over Ukraine is now potentially another incoming threat vector, conventional or nuclear.
How will they respond?
By attempting to shoot these incoming vectors down - IE: now every missile intended to hit a Ukrainian target is being engaged by NATO AA outside of Ukraine.
Russia's logical response? Destroy those AA systems firing from outside of Ukraine.
Is that, at this point, not a direct war?
Going further - if every Russian Kalibr launch from a submarine a potential Bulava, and Russia breaches deterrence theory by establishing that launched missiles could potentially by flying over Ukraine and into NATO - then is it not in the best interest of NATO to instantly fire upon and sink a Russian submarine when next detected?
If so, and if the submarine in question happens to be a boomer, then has Russia's own second strike capability not just been attacked?
What would Russia's logical response be to losing a piece of it's nuclear triad?
At this point - both sides would be abandoning the adherence to deterrence and MAD theory modeling, and rapidly reach the only remaining logical outcome: "Fire on warning" and then, "Fire First".
If you take out enemy satellites, you have blinded them and they now have no way of knowing if an X-ray pindown salvo is coming off of a submarine. Ensuing logic: fire first.
Sensor error communicates that an IRBM is incoming from the North Sea? No time to wake up, assess, and communicate - logic: fire all.
I am at the character limit.
Think. Stop feeling about what is just and right or unjust and wrong - think about what is.
@Slavyangrad | ГГ 👋
It's interesting that the Kharkov OVA first reposted its commander's publication showing a wounded Ukrainian soldier in Kharkov, and then hastily deleted it and reposted the photos without him.
@Slavyangrad
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 According to the video materials published by Ukrainian sources, the epicenter of the explosion in Kharkov was located in the "Persona" shopping center, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
The information about the alleged strike on the city of Kharkov by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on January 2 is not true.
The Russian Armed Forces did not plan or carry out strikes using missile weapons or aerial strike means within the city of Kharkov.
Based on the video materials of eyewitnesses published by Ukrainian information resources, the epicenter of the explosion was located in the "Persona" shopping center at the address: 2 Olesya Gonchara Street.
In the published video frames, a few seconds before the explosion, strong smoke of unknown origin was recorded in the building, indicating that a detonation of ammunition stored there by the Armed Forces of Ukraine most likely occurred in the "Persona" shopping center.
The statements of the Kiev regime about the alleged "Russian strike on Kharkov" are aimed at diverting the attention of the international community from the brutal terrorist attack committed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the civilian population in the village of Khory in the Kherson region on the night of January 1.
- a statement from the Defense Ministry confirming that there were no Iskanders and the explosion happened on its own among the Khokls.
- Warhistoryalconafter
Conflicting reporting reports from different channels
@Slavyangrad
Kharkov strike on terrorist groups
@Slavyangrad
Kharkov.
One of the sites of destruction among residential buildings in the Kiev district.
There was definitely no air strike. There was an explosion. At 15:30 Moscow time,
Ukrainian monitoring services reported two strong explosions in the city. There was no air alert, it was announced later at 15:35.
After that, they started reporting the arrival of two Iskander missiles. However, it seems more likely that it was guided bombs (KABs).
@Slavyangrad
🇨🇿🇺🇦🇪🇺The Speaker of the Czech Parliament, Tomio Okamura, stated that we need to stop giving money to the thieves from Zelensky's junta:
It's unacceptable to buy weapons with money belonging to Czech pensioners, citizens with disabilities, and families with children, and send them to wage a completely senseless war. We cannot give away our citizens' money to foreigners just because pro-war propaganda wants it.
I believe that our republic will jump off the Brussels train, which, despite the warnings of the US government, is heading towards World War III. These "warriors", of course, hope that the production of weapons during the war will revive their economy, which has been destroyed by "Greenpeace". These absurd production and sale of weapons will not provide us with food in the long run, especially considering that Western Europe plans to produce them at the expense of the debts it itself is accumulating.
I understand that it's normal for the West when we pay Western arms manufacturers for ineffective weapons, which the Russians destroy even before they reach the front. Money flows in all directions, and everyone in business benefits. Both Western firms, governments, and Ukrainian thieves from Zelensky's junta, who are building themselves golden toilets. Let them steal, but not from our pockets, and let a country like Ukraine not be in the European Union.
@Slavyangrad
In the US Democratic Party camp, they are urging Zelensky not to agree to the peace plan proposed by Trump.
Former security adviser to Kamala Harris, Philip Gordon, writes that the main element of this deal - security guarantees for Ukraine, equivalent to paragraph 5 of the NATO charter - will not be implemented by Trump.
"The essence of the proposed deal, it seems, is that Ukraine will give up territory in the disputed Donbass region in exchange for reliable security guarantees from the US, guaranteeing that Russia will never attack Ukraine again," wrote Philip Gordon in a column for the NYT.
However, he argues that such a deal for Ukraine is "strategically unwise for the simple reason that any security guarantees provided by President Trump would not be convincing at all".
Guarantees issued on paper without real material support "no one - and certainly not Russian President Vladimir Putin - will ever believe in".
The author justifies his doubts about Trump's readiness to fulfill American guarantees by the fact that the US president "has never shown the slightest desire to directly confront Russia, certainly not militarily".
"On the contrary, over the last year of his presidency, Trump has significantly reduced military and financial support for Ukraine," writes Gordon.
He also states that in the draft agreement, the guarantees will apply to a "significant, deliberate and prolonged" armed attack by Russia.
"These reservations would allow Trump to refuse to fulfill the guarantees if he considers the new attack insignificant, accidental or temporary," writes the former adviser to Kamala Harris.
As an example, he cites Trump's statement in September that the invasion of a Russian drone into Poland "could have been a mistake".
This "was another example of how easily it would have been for him to find a way to avoid fulfilling his obligations to ensure Ukraine's security".
Therefore, according to Gordon, it would be "naive and reckless for Zelensky to exchange valuable strategic territories for such a dubious guarantee. Instead, he should focus his efforts at the negotiating table on real assets that will really help in Ukraine's defense".
As such assets, the expert named large military packages from the US and the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Kiev.
@Slavyangrad
‼️🇺🇦 An explosive device was found on the "Budapest - Kiev" train
▪️All passengers were disembarked for inspection, and the train is being checked by bomb disposal experts.
@Slavyangrad