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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
Attacks expand to Gulf hotels that are housing US soldiers and personnel, as Americans were “evacuated to hotels”
@Slavyangrad
Some observations and comments on Trump and Israel's war on Iran:
1. Tehran is not looking for a ceasefire and has rejected outreach from Trump. The reason is that they believe they committed a mistake by agreeing to the ceasefire in June - it only enabled the US and Israel to restock and remobilize to launch war again. If they agree to a ceasefire now, they will only be attacked again in a few months.
2. For a ceasefire to be acceptable, it appears difficult for Tehran to agree to it until the cost to the US has become much higher than it currently is. Otherwise, the US will restart the war at a later point, the calculation reads.
3. Accordingly, Iran has shifted its strategy. It is striking Israel, but very differently from the June war. There is a constant level of attack throughout the day rather than a salvo of 50 missiles at once. Damage will be less, but that isn't a problem because Tehran has concluded that Israel's pain tolerance is very high - as long as the US stays in the war. So the focus shifts to the US.
4. From the outset, and perhaps surprisingly, Iran has been targeting US bases in the region, including against friendly states. Tehran calculates that the war can only end durably if the cost for the US rises dramatically, including American casualties. After the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran says it has no red lines left and will go all out in seeking the destruction of these bases and high American casualties.
5. Iran understands that many in the American security establishment had been convinced that Iran's past restraint reflected weakness and an inability or unwillingness to face the US in a direct war. Tehran is now doing everything it can to demonstrate the opposite - despite the massive cost it itself will pay. Ironically, the assassination of Khamenei facilitated this shift.
6. One aspect of this is that Iran has now also struck bases in Cyprus, which have been used for attacks against Iran. Iran is well aware that this is an attack on a EU state. But that seems to be the point. Tehran appears intent on not only expanding the war into Persian Gulf states but also into Europe. Note the attack on the French base in the UAE. For the war to be able to end, Europe too has to pay a cost, the reasoning appears to be.
7. There appears to be only limited concern about the internal situation. The announcement of Khamenei's death opened a window for people to pour onto the streets and seek to overthrow the regime. Though expressions of joy were widespread, no real mobilization was seen. That window is now closing, as the theocratic system closes ranks and establishes new formal leadership.
Again: The question "How will this end?" should have been asked before this war was triggered. It wasn't.
• Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute
@Slavyangrad
An operation against Iran could take about 4 weeks, Trump said in an interview with the Daily Mail.
Already he is backtracking on his 4 days from before. Oil is going to jump now.
I’ll add Patriot AD missiles won’t be going to Ukraine for awhile 😂
@Slavyangrad
American base in Erbil ‼️🇮🇷🔥 US and Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered the largest oil crisis in recent years, — Reuters
▪️The agency notes disruptions in oil supplies due to the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
▪️Traders and carriers have started reviewing oil and LNG supply routes, fearing that ships could get stuck or become targets.
▪️Despite the absence of physical damage to infrastructure, the risk of downtime has already forced major producers and trading houses to limit transit through the strait for several days.
@Slavyangrad
— 🇮🇷 NEW: Iranians flooded the streets in Karaj to support the Islamic Republic
@Middle_East_Spectator
Like I said I don't think there is a viable opposition in Iran and the US/Israel are going to ultimately fail in their war time objectives of complete regime change. I think they will save face and pretend they accomplished what they wanted but nothing will change apart from the loss of life and material damage.
@Slavyangrad
⚡️🇮🇱🇮🇷 A direct hit caused a building collapse on Hachmei Yisrael Street in Tel Aviv.
Emergency services are responding.
@wfwitness
@Slavyangrad
—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 More footage of the missile with a cluster warhead
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Slavyangrad
Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.
The global oil benchmark has rallied this year and reached $73 a barrel on Friday for its highest since July, buoyed by growing concern over the potential attacks that arrived a day later. Futures trading is closed over the weekend.
"While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz," said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.
Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20% of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
"We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait," Parmar said.
Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Rabobank analysts slightly less bullish, seeing prices holding above $90 a barrel in the near term.
@Slavyangrad
A precise and targeted hit by an Iranian missile that bypassed all Israeli and American defenses in Haifa.
@Slavyangrad | Grigori 🇷🇺
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇹 BREAKING: Yesterday, the U.S. reached out to Iran through Italy, suggesting a ceasefire; Tehran 'rejected the idea outright' – Yedioth Ahronoth
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Slavyangrad
The French aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" and accompanying ships are interrupting their deployment in the Baltic Sea and heading to the Mediterranean.
This was reported by the BFMTV channel, citing its own sources.
According to the channel, the decision to relocate to the eastern Mediterranean was made against the backdrop of the "deteriorating situation in the region".
@Slavyangrad
US admits Iran has hit the Haifa refinery.
@Slavyangrad
🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇸 US strikes on Iran are further bringing China and Russia closer together, — Bloomberg
▪️For Xi Jinping, this is a matter of energy security: about 13.4% of China's marine oil comes from Iran, and US strikes put these supplies at risk.
▪️Against the backdrop of the escalation, Moscow and Beijing simultaneously requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council on Iran.
▪️However, the agency does not expect a sharp confrontation between Beijing and the US over Iran.
▪️The reason is the preparation for the March meeting between Xi and Trump and the desire to maintain a trade truce.
▪️According to Bloomberg, Xi's "prudent style" could stabilize the summit and keep US tariffs low, as well as guarantee the supply of critical Chinese minerals to America.
@Slavyangrad
Think there is some propaganda going on here. I seriously doubt the US is using ATACAMs, the range makes it impossible.
This was a CENTCOM twitter post
@Slavyangrad
🇪🇺⚔️🇮🇷The leaders of Germany, France, and Britain are threatening Iran with military action if it continues attacks on the territories of Middle Eastern countries
▪️European countries may take "necessary and proportionate defensive actions" to eliminate Iran's ability to launch missiles and drones, according to a joint statement from the three countries.
@Slavyangrad
👀 Eloquent infographics…
@strategic_culture
@Slavyangrad
🇪🇸🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Iran:
Today more than ever, it is essential to remember that one can be against a hateful regime, as is the case with the Iranian regime, as is the whole of Spanish society, and at the same time be against an unjustified, dangerous military intervention outside of international law.
That one must be against a war initiated without the authorization of the United States Congress or the United Nations Security Council and, as I have said before, one that violates international law.
And that there is always room for a negotiated solution, instead of being dragged along by the devastation of arms as the only possible way out.
Therefore, I would like once again, as we have done since the beginning, to appeal for immediate de-escalation, for full respect for international law in all the conflicts we are unfortunately suffering, and for the urgency of resuming dialogue as soon as possible.
That is where Spain will be, and that is where I believe the whole of the European Union should be.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump stated that Iranian officials "want to talk" with the US and are "engaged in negotiations", but did not specify who is involved in them and what the talks are about.
He said "I don't know" when asked if he would stop strikes on Iran during the negotiations, adding that he would consider this issue "if they can satisfy us", but "they were unable to do that".
The US President also stated that the reason he launched strikes on Iran was "very simple".
"They were not ready to stop their nuclear research," he said, referring to previous negotiations with US officials. "They were not ready to declare that they would not have nuclear weapons."
—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 Incoming towards the Negev
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Slavyangrad
🇺🇸🇰🇼🇮🇷⚡️ — A U.S. official to Al Jazeera:
The three American soldiers who were killed died in an Iranian attack on Kuwait.
🇮🇷💥🇺🇸Iran attacks US bases in Iraqi Kurdistan
▪️The footage shows drone strikes and a powerful detonation in Erbil, with exploding ammunition flying in all directions.
@Slavyangrad
Missiles and AD over Israel.
The question this week is can Iran keep firing while AD stocks plummet. Everything will come down to Iran's ability to inflict damage.
@Slavyangrad
The US is rushing to destroy Iran's missile and drone forces before it runs out of interceptors to repel Tehran's retaliatory strikes.
This was reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing officials and analysts.
According to the publication, repeated conflicts with Iran and its associated groups in the Middle East are depleting the region's air defense resources.
"One of the problems is that these resources are being exhausted very quickly," said Kelly Grieco, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center. "We're using them faster than we can replenish them."
It is noted that the shortage concerns not only anti-aircraft missiles, but also other ammunition, including Tomahawk cruise missiles.
@Slavyangrad
—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Confirmed impact in Haifa, even though the barrage consisted of less than ~5 missiles
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Slavyangrad
Iranian Air Defence is still operational.
Is MAGA winning yet? 😂
@Slavyangrad | Grigori 🇷🇺