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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
The conflict over Iran could provoke the largest migration crisis in Europe, writes The Times.
The publication refers to the annual report of the EU Agency for Asylum, where Iran is designated as a "significant potential crisis". The document notes that with a population of about 90 million people, even partial destabilization of the country could lead to an unprecedented scale of refugee movement.
According to the agency's estimates, if only about 10% of the population leaves the country, the scale of the migration flow will be comparable to the largest crises of recent decades.
@Slavyangrad
Giving weapons to Ukraine was an "unwise decision," said White House press secretary Caroline Livitt.
"Unfortunately, for four years in the White House, we had a very stupid and incompetent leader who gave away much of our best weaponry to another country located very far away, called Ukraine. Trump pointed out that this was an unwise decision," she said.
😂
@Slavyangrad
Qatar will fully shut down gas liquefaction on Wednesday and won't be able to return to normal production and export levels of super-chilled gas for at least a month, two sources familiar with the matter said.
The sources said that once Qatar's main Ras Laffan plant shuts on Wednesday, it won't be able to restart turning gas into super-chilled fuel for at least two weeks, according to initial estimates. Once restarted, it will take at least another two weeks to reach full capacity, the sources said.
@Slavyangrad
— 🇮🇷/🇷🇺 NEW: A Russian prankster, wearing a Hitler mustache and calling himself 'Adolf', approached Iran's exiled Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi for an interview, stating he was a representative of German chancellor Friedrich Merz
Reza Pahlavi obliged, and despite obvious red flags he continued the entire interview having no clue he was being mocked throughout.
This is the person the Iranian diaspora wants as leader.
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Slavyangrad
Going to miss stuff.. not sure I can keep up this pace. Apologies if I do but I have work/life. Post queue is already full for next 12 hours
Читать полностью…
The American military believes that their air defense systems will not be able to reliably intercept all "Shahids", reports CNN.
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Kaine, admitted that Iranian "Shahids" pose a greater problem than initially expected - because they fly "low and slow" and can "better evade air defense systems than ballistic missiles".
According to one of the sources, officials tried to reduce the alarming impression and noted that partners in the Persian Gulf have stocks of interceptor missiles.
@Slavyangrad
❗️US air defense systems will not be able to intercept all Iranian "Shahid drones" - a statement by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. According to him, Iranian attack drones pose a more serious threat than expected.
CNN
@Slavyangrad
‼️🇮🇷🇺🇸 At least nine US facilities were hit in the past 48 hours, — CNN
▪️Iran struck at least nine American military facilities in the Middle East over two days.
▪️It is reported that four facilities were located in Kuwait, two in the UAE, and one each in Bahrain, Iraq, and Qatar.
@Slavyangrad
Regarding the upcoming Russian combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine that I warned about yesterday:
The highest threat is in place for tonight, from approximately 12am to 8am. This is when Ukrainian intelligence seems to think it will happen.
What will be used:
- Kh-101 cruise missiles from 4-6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Ukrainka/Olenya/Engels-2 Airbases.
- Kh-101 cruise missiles from 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers from Ukrainka Airbase.
- 2-20 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (Crimea, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, Voronezh).
- 8-16 Kalibr cruise missiles from 1 Admiral Makarov Frigate and 1 Admiral Essen Frigate at Novorossiysk Naval Base.
What might be used:
- 2-8 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles from Crimea.
- 2-8 Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk Oblast.
- 3-12 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles from 3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers from Olenya/Shaykovka Airbase.
- 2-6 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles from 2-6 MiG-31Ks at Savasleika Airbase (less likely).
- 1-3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from a Su-57 (less likely).
Observed movements:
- 2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase to Belaya Airbase in the far east, where they were equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles (delivered by an IL-76MD cargo plant) and subsequently redeployed to Ukrainka Airbase (their combat staging ground for this attack). There are 2 other Tu-95s at Ukrainka which could be used in the attack.
- 2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Olenya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase (possible combat staging ground for this attack), where they were likely equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
- Russian Gerbera recon drones scouted out targets in Kiev yesterday, presumably including the CHP-4/5/6 power plants. This increases the threat level for Kiev Oblast tomorrow.
- 1 An-12 cargo plane landed at Privolzhskiy Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, likely delivering Kh-59/69 cruise missiles to a Su-57 fighter.
- 2 IL-78M refuelling tankers are stationed at Ukrainka Airbase, which are expected to accompany the Tu-160M and Tu-95MS bombers during their flight to western Russia.
- 6 MiG-31K fighters remain stationed at Savasleika Airbase under their concrete bunkers. At least 2 of them are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, although it's unlikely that they will be used in this attack.
- 3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers *may* have redeployed from Shaykovka Airbase to Olenya Airbase, however this is unconfirmed right now. Each of these bombers are probably equipped with 3 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, and its possible that additional aircraft are used from Olenya Airbase.
- AMK Mapping
@Slavyangrad
US/Israeli aircraft are bombing a camp of a farmer in Iran, mistakenly believing that the location is part of a military site for launching drones
😂
@Slavyangrad
‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷The US does not rule out the option of a ground operation in Iran - White House
▪️At the moment, the US does not plan to use ground forces in Iran, but does not rule out this possibility, the Trump administration reported.
@Slavyangrad
Putin instructed the Russian government to study the possibility of "immediately" stopping gas supplies to the European market.
"Maybe it would be more profitable for us to stop supplies to the European market right now? To move to markets that are opening up and gain a foothold there? There's no political subtext here either. If they're going to shut us out in a month or two anyway. Wouldn't it be better to stop ourselves now? But this isn't a decision, it's just a thought out loud. I'll instruct the government to work on this issue with our companies," said the Russian president.
@Slavyangrad
Putin assured Szijjártó that Russia remains a reliable supplier of oil and gas for Hungary.
‘I understand that you can't help but be concerned about oil supplies. We see what's happening in the global and European gas markets. We have always fulfilled our obligations and are ready to continue doing so. We have always been reliable suppliers.’
@Slavyangrad
The journalist's attempt to link Russia and China to the US war in Iran failed.
- What will be your message to Iran's allies, primarily Russia and China, who have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities?
- I don't have a message for them, and they're not really a factor here. Our question isn't about them. It's about Iran's nuclear ambitions.
@Slavyangrad
A good podcast from Radio War Nerd with Dr. Robert Pape:
Air Power & The Escalation Trap
Why in the history of warfare no one has accomplished regime with a bombing campaign.
This is the American expert on conventional bombing. You can listen to it also on the podcast host of your choice.
He also recently created a Substack to cover the subject
@Slavyangrad
🐖 The Ukrainians took offense at the truth.
@Slavyangrad
Trump on the special military operation in Iran:
Someone asked: how would you rate this on a 10-point scale? I replied that it's about a 15.
🇮🇶🇮🇷 The CIA is working on arming Kurdish forces for their invasion and rebellion in Iran, - Reuters.
- According to the agency, the Kurdish side has requested military support from the US; the involvement of the CIA in arms supplies is also being discussed.
- Leaders in Erbil and Baghdad have been in contact with the Trump administration in recent days. The stated goal is to create conditions for an internal rebellion against the current Iranian leadership.
- Reuters notes uncertainty about the combat capability of Iranian Kurdish groups: their experience and potential are assessed as heterogeneous.
- The reaction of other regional states to such a scenario also remains unclear.
- According to analysts, an escalation could strengthen separatist sentiments among the Baluchis in Iran, given their ties with groups in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. However, it is unlikely that Pakistan will support steps leading to the possible independence of the region.
@Slavyangrad
Kurdish forces in Iraq have launched a ground military offensive against Iran's Islamic regime, according to the Israeli publication i24News, citing a source.
According to him, thousands of Kurdish fighters began taking up combat positions in Iran as early as Monday.
There is currently no confirmation of this information.
Would be suicide IMHO if true. Rushing into attacks is asking for failure. PJAK has has only about 1000-3000 members.
@Slavyangrad
🇾🇪❌🇸🇦 — Arab intelligence officials believe the Houthis (Ansarallah) may be preparing missile and drone attacks on key targets in Saudi Arabia, according to Israeli Kan News.
➡️ Saudi sources say that if the Houthis join Iran in launching attacks, Riyadh would retaliate, but for now the Kingdom is allowing the U.S. and Israel to continue their operations against Iran.
- Tabz
@Slavyangrad
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Fire has been detected on the deck of a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in the Arabian Sea, possibly due to an impact by an Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile
@Middle_East_Spectator
I'd wait and see before getting too excited on this
@Slavyangrad
🇪🇸❌🇺🇸 — NEW: Spain's Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares has firmly denied statements by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claiming that Spain would “cooperate militarily” with the United States and says the Spanish position remains unchanged.
Our position of "no to war" remains clear and forceful.
Hezbollah has released footage of the ATGM strike on an Israeli Merkava tank that injured two IDF soldiers.
- AMK Mapping
@Slavyangrad
🇺🇦☠️ "TCC should give men time to write a will," - Ukrainian volunteer
- According to Sergei Pritula, this is a "sign of respect for a person whom the state asks to go to defend it".
- Pritula himself reported that he has a deferral from mobilization as the father of three minor children, and also mentioned problems with vision.
@Slavyangrad
‼️🇷🇺Kiev is playing a "very dangerous game", preparing sabotage attacks on the "Turkish and "Blue" pipelines
▪️He called the attack on a Russian gas tanker in the Mediterranean Sea a terrorist attack.
▪️The rise in gas prices on the European market is not directly related to supplies - no one has reduced them, but is caused by the general situation on world markets.
▪️The rise in oil prices is also related to restrictions on Russian oil.
▪️The government, together with companies, will work on the issue of supplying Russian gas to promising markets.
▪️US energy companies will move to those markets where there is more demand, this is dictated only by business interests.
@Slavyangrad
⚡️Sijjarto thanked Putin in Russian for the release from captivity of two Hungarian citizens, who were mobilized by the TCK and forcibly sent to fight against Russia.
- Yesterday, Orban asked for the possibility of releasing Hungarian citizens who ended up in captivity of the Russian army. They were forcibly mobilized. I decided to release two people. You will be able to take them with you to Budapest on the plane on which you arrived.
- Thank you very much. I'm grateful.
@Slavyangrad
And this is the people Trump is trying to break?
Iranian woman about Khamenei: ‘We are proud that our leader died working for the good of the country, not getting on a plane to flee the country!’.
@Slavyangrad
'As long as it takes' – Hegseth on how long the war with Iran will last.
The war minister added that only the USA could lead this war.
'Today I stand before you with one unequivocal message about Operation 'Epic Rage'. America is winning – decisively, overwhelmingly, and without mercy. On the direct order of President Trump, the Department of Defense began this operation early on Saturday morning – just four days ago. It's only been four days. The numbers are changing, the dust is settling, and additional forces are arriving. This is the earliest stage. And, as President Trump said, we will spend as much time as it takes to ensure success. And the results are already incredible. Truly historic. Only the United States of America could lead this. Only us.'
This is exactly what Iran wants, to play the long-game and drag this out
@Slavyangrad
🇮🇱🇮🇷The Israeli Defense Minister announced his readiness to eliminate any new leader of Iran
- Israel Katz stated that any new leader of Iran would become an "unconditional target for elimination".
- The Prime Minister and the Defense Ministry instructed the IDF to prepare for actions "by all means" to fulfill this task.
- Katz also emphasized the intention to continue actions jointly with the USA to "crush the regime's capabilities" and create conditions for its replacement.
- Earlier, media reports emerged about the possible election of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the new supreme leader of Iran. There has been no official confirmation from Tehran on this matter.
@Slavyangrad