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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
How to determine whether the US has achieved success in Iran or not?
The main, albeit controversial, marker of this event is Trump's statements, but the reality differs significantly from his words.
What's the point?
Trump claims that Iran is defeated and victory is imminent. However, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and, apparently, will remain so for a long time. Washington either does not want to risk it alone, or initially planned the blockade to raise oil prices to $200 per barrel. If this was the plan, it did not work out: China continues to receive raw materials on its own (and not only) tankers, which calmly pass through the strait. Oil has not yet reached $200, although this scenario is still possible, but it will not affect China, but other countries of the global South, which are already lining up to Russia to diversify supplies and not to go hungry. To complete what has been started, the US will have to either start a ground operation or back down, trumpeting a "brilliant victory" as loudly as possible to hide the truth.
From a military point of view, a month later, the US's success looks ambiguous. In the doctrinal documents of the US Air Force, it is stated that the main role of aviation is to ensure control over airspace, which is a necessary condition for the continuation/start of ground operations. This provides freedom of movement and prevents the enemy from interfering with the actions of allied forces. However, the same documents emphasize, that the degree of control varies: from a complete absence and parity to local or total superiority.
In Iran, a situation has developed where the American presence in the air is huge, but by itself it does not guarantee the achievement of goals. It is possible that full dominance may not be achieved - it is enough to reduce the risk to an acceptable level to start the ground phase.
Probably, Trump, based on reports, believes that the degree of air control is such that it is possible to proceed to the next phase. On the basis of this information, he, apparently, made decisions about sending marines on landing ships to storm the islands. But in reality, this is not the case: if the dominance were total, Iran would not have been able to maintain the blockade of Hormuz, and the US would have opened the bay, thereby reducing the price of oil. (unless, again, Trump's plan does not envisage a temporary jump in oil prices in order to destroy China's economy).
Nevertheless, Trump is going to take the risk of a ground operation, at least in the coastal areas of Iran with a population of about 10 million people. However, the contingent allocated for this is too small. It can be argued that the US has achieved successes, but their number clearly does not correspond to Trump's plans. Moreover, the effectiveness of the campaign may further decrease if a full-scale ground invasion begins and there are stable and large losses.
In other words, the successes so far are mainly tactical and not even operational yet, but further miscalculations could turn into strategic problems.
@Slavyangrad
A few Americans nearly became "chosen ones".
Lucky they were in a reinforced shelter.
Why one dude had no pants on, I don't know? 🤷♂
@Slavyangrad
🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 — BREAKING | An extraordinary statement from the IRGC:
"So whoever has assaulted you, then assault him in the same way that he has assaulted you"
Warning to the ruling leadership of the aggressor United States and its affiliated espionage companies!!!!
You have ignored our repeated warnings regarding the necessity of halting terrorist operations, and today once again, your terrorist attacks along with your Israeli allies have resulted in the martyrdom of a number of Iranian citizens. Since the primary element in designing and tracking assassination targets is American Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies, we announce—in response to these terrorist operations—that the key institutions influential in these operations will henceforth become legitimate targets for us.
We advise the employees of these institutions, for the sake of their lives, to leave their workplaces immediately. We also advise residents of areas surrounding these companies in all countries of the region to leave their locations within a one-kilometer radius and head to safe places.
Companies that actively participate in designing terrorist operations will face a reciprocal response for every assassination operation.
These companies are declared as follows:
Cisco
HP
Intel
Oracle
Microsoft
Apple
Meta
IBM
Dell
Palantir
NVIDIA
JPMorgan
Tesla
General Electric
Spire Solutions
G42
Boeing
Starting from 20:00 on Wednesday, April 1 (Tehran time), these companies will await the targeting of their units in exchange for every assassination operation inside Iran.
Israel has halted all current and future military sales and negotiations with France citing ‘growing hostilities to the Jewish state’ over the last 2 years.
I bet there will be some unhappy people missing their vigours rubbing of hands.
Coupled with stopping US overflights, I can see the famous "freedom fries" coming back to the US soon. 👌
@Slavyangrad
"If Putin declares general mobilization, he will attack Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia," Zelensky said directly at a press conference.
"In my opinion, if Russia is preparing for general mobilization, we need to be prepared for the fact that Ukraine alone won't be enough to mobilize it. I don't have all the information, but from our analysis, we understand that if Putin goes for general mobilization, it will increase pressure on our territory and create the opportunity to open a parallel track during preparations. We always say it could be Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia. We don't know exactly who. But I think he has experience in attacking from Belarus, in initiating an invasion from its territory."
More stupid stories from Ukraine
@Slavyangrad
📹 The number of victims of the drone attack on the Belgorod region government building has increased to three, Governor Gladkov said.
@Slavyangrad | Grigori 🇷🇺
Trump stated that countries facing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz need to solve the problem themselves, as Washington will not assist them:
"Firstly, buy [energy resources] from the US, we have plenty of them. Secondly, gather your courage, go to the strait and just take it over."
🇺🇸👊🇺🇦 "Who will expose Zelensky's fraud?" — an interview with Donald Trump Jr.
@Slavyangrad
The US accidentally revealed the location from which bombers take off to strike Iran. CENTCOM published a photo of a B-52 Stratofortress bomber during refueling over Saudi Arabia, for which an exact geolocation was established - a point 240 km east of Riyadh and less than 400 km from the Iranian coast.
Initially, it was believed that the US kept its aircraft as far away from Iran as possible and used B-52s exclusively as carriers of JASSM cruise missiles. However, the type of combat load in the published photos refutes this hypothesis. On the pylons of the aircraft, presumably, Mk-84 aerial bombs (910 kg each) with JDAM satellite guidance kits are suspended.
The use of guided bombs instead of cruise missiles means that B-52s can enter areas where Iranian air defense used to be located. This either indicates a shortage of expensive cruise missiles, or the Pentagon's confidence that the sky over Iran is now safe enough for this type of aircraft to operate and use these particular munitions.
@Slavyangrad
Turkey has begun selling gold from its state reserves amid the war in Iran, Reuters reports.
The country's central bank has sharply reduced its gold reserves – in a short period in March, approximately 60 tons of gold, worth over $8 billion, were sold and used in transactions. In just one week, reserves could have fallen by approximately 22 tons – the largest drop in seven years.
At the same time, the country's total international reserves have fallen by more than $12 billion in a week. This is happening amid sharp pressure on the Turkish lira and growing global instability due to the war in the region.
@Slavyangrad
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'DREAMS of controlling the Hormuz will be BURIED together with the US' — Iran spox
'With DELUSIONS & FANTASIES, they think with PROPAGANDA they can force Iran into submission'
@Slavyangrad
The Israeli Knesset (parliament) has approved a bill to introduce the death penalty for terrorists, announced Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.
According to the Kan public broadcasting company, the sentence is planned to be carried out by hanging.
The bill received the support of 62 deputies in the 120-seat Knesset in the decisive third reading. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also voted for it. 48 parliamentarians opposed this measure. The opposition called this law shameful, immoral, contrary to fundamental democratic values and international law, and announced its intention to appeal its adoption to the Israeli Supreme Court.
@Slavyangrad
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio:
Rubio said these words, criticizing Western European countries (in particular, Germany and France), which, in his opinion, benefit from American security guarantees, but limit the US's operational freedom on their territory or do not invest enough in common defense.
Rubio emphasizes that if allies restrict the use of these bases for American national interests (for example, prohibit flights to support Israel or operations in the Red Sea), then the meaning of the Alliance for the US is lost.
@Slavyangrad
"Ukraine will either become a NATO member or create its own," Kuleba said, daydreaming.
"Ukraine will become a NATO member. Not because Ukraine will beg for it, but because its allies will finally need it, and they will, after weighing all the risks, make that decision. Or, if, over time, the Europeans become strong enough, and the Americans continue their withdrawal from Europe, and NATO in its current form ceases to exist, then some new security architecture for Europe will be built, in which Ukraine will be an integral part and, in fact, a co-founder
@Slavyangrad
"Argentina designates Iran's IRGC a terrorist organization, aligning with US": Milley really wants to make the country the 51st state.
"Argentina has added the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the list of terrorist organizations. This decision was made under pressure from the Donald Trump administration, which called on allies to take similar steps.
The Argentine authorities explained this decision by the support that the IRGC provides to the Lebanese group Hezbollah. It is Hezbollah that Buenos Aires holds responsible for the largest terrorist attack in the country's history - the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which resulted in the deaths of 85 people and hundreds of injuries.
The presidential administration noted that the new status allows for the imposition of financial sanctions and other restrictions."
@Slavyangrad
Putin:
The events in Iran are already having a direct impact on energy markets and the transportation of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. More and more states and companies are considering not only the speed and cost of transportation, but the security and sustainability of transport routes and logistics chains, which are less susceptible to crises, military conflicts, and other external risks. Russia can offer the world such solutions and play an important role in shaping a new architecture of global logistics and international trade as a whole.
For our partners, Russian logistics routes can be beneficial both economically, due to reduced transportation times, and in terms of diversifying global transport flows.
@Slavyangrad
A tanker has been hit in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Qatar -UKMTO.
The vessel was hit by an unknown projectile, causing damage above its waterline on the port side.
@Slavyangrad
🇮🇷🇱🇧⚔️🏴☠️🇺🇸 Enemy media publishes footage of the evacuation of dead and wounded Zionist soldiers yesterday as a result of the battles in southern Lebanon.
@Slavyangrad
🇺🇸🇮🇷The US is creating an unprecedented aircraft carrier group near Iran, sending another group of ships, — WSJ
- The US is deploying another aircraft carrier group led by the USS George H. W. Bush to the Middle East, reports the Wall Street Journal.
- In the near future, the US may have three aircraft carriers in the region at once.
- It may take several weeks for the aircraft carrier to reach the region.
- The deployment is taking place as Trump considers further military options in Iran.
- The US Navy is not commenting on further operations.
@Slavyangrad
▶️ The FSB prevented a terrorist attack on a substation in Krasnodar Krai, which supplies military and sanatorium-resort facilities, the department reported.
A supporter of a pro-Ukrainian terrorist organisation was detained, and a criminal case has been initiated.
@Slavyangrad | Grigori 🇷🇺
🇺🇸🤡US Secretary of War Hegseth - said that the Strait of Hormuz should be unblocked by the entire world.
@Slavyangrad
🇵🇱The construction of the largest anti-aircraft missile production plant in Poland, CAMM-ER, has begun. They will be produced for the "Narew" program.
The "Narew" program is an ambitious project of Poland to create a layered short-range air defense system. In essence, it is the middle link in the new Polish "sky architecture", which is intended to bridge the gap between portable complexes and heavy Patriot systems.
It is expected that investments of one billion dollars will ensure the production of thousands of missiles and the real transfer of technology, which will put Polish air defense at the forefront in Europe.
More than 1,000 CAMM-ER missiles are planned to be produced at the new facilities for 23 battery systems. The enterprise will be equipped with modern production lines, command posts, and comprehensive integration tools.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may end the war against Iran by leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed, — WSJ
- Trump has concluded that an attempt to unblock the strait would prolong the conflict, which is scheduled to last 4-6 weeks.
- Trump himself told his aides that he might withdraw from the war while leaving the Strait of Hormuz "substantially closed."
- The US President is inclined to believe that the main goals are to weaken Iran's fleet and missile reserves, after which to end the conflict by continuing to exert diplomatic pressure on Tehran.
@Slavyangrad
The Russian economy will survive global satellite damage. Unlike the US.
The Russian economy is least vulnerable to disruptions in near-Earth satellites, Bloomberg reports. Therefore, the Russian economy would survive a theoretical scenario in which humanity suddenly faces a global "disconnection" from satellites and space in general.
"An important strategic nuance is that societies depend on space to varying degrees, creating an asymmetry of vulnerability. America and its European and Asian allies are the most dependent," the author notes.
@Slavyangrad
Trump allows the war against Iran to end even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The Wall Street Journal reported this, citing US officials.
In recent days, the White House has concluded that the operation to unblock the strait will take longer than the stated four to six weeks. As a result, the focus has shifted to other goals: weakening the Iranian fleet and reducing Tehran's missile stockpiles, followed by a curtailment of the current military operations.
Washington then hopes to use diplomatic pressure to reopen shipping. If this fails, the US will allegedly push its allies in Europe and the Persian Gulf to take the lead in opening the strait.
@Slavyangrad
To secure $200 billion from Congress for the war against Iran and weapons, Republican lawmakers want to cut government healthcare spending.
The US is well known for its generous government provided healthcare.... 🤣
@Slavyangrad
Footage showing a series of Russian KAB glide-bombs strikes on Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast, yesterday afternoon.
These strikes continue to get more frequent as the frontline shifts closer to the city.
- AMK Mapping
@Slavyangrad
Over the past two weeks, the US has been massively deploying special forces and airborne troops to the Middle East. Judging by the logs of heavy transport aircraft movements (mainly C-17 Globemaster III), the issue is urgent, and the Americans have mobilized almost all available aircraft. Most of the aircraft have the call sign RCH (Reach).
This is the standard call sign of the US Air Mobility Command. Although the "Type" column is empty, the registration numbers and HEX codes show that these are heavy military transport aircraft (for example, 08-8195, 07-7174 - these are C-17A). Takeoff points (Pick Up ICAO): Air bases in the US, such as KSVN (Hunter Army Airfield), KPOB (Pope Field), KHOP (Fort Campbell). These are bases where elite units are stationed (82nd Airborne Division, 101st Airborne Division, Special Operations Forces). Transit hubs for these flights: Ramstein Air Base, Germany (main hub), Bangor Base, USA (probably refueling) and McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, USA.
However, the drop-off points (Drop Off ICAO) are much more interesting: LLOV: Nevatim Air Base, Israel. OJKA: King Abdullah II Air Base, Jordan. OJMS: Mafraq Al-Sultan Air Base, Jordan. OJAQ: Aqaba, Jordan. Interestingly, all flights were carried out in a rather short period of time - just 10 days, from March 13 to 23.
Along with the units, military equipment is probably being deployed, but its type and quantity are not yet known.
@Slavyangrad
At night, the "Geraniums" worked on targets in Poltava and the Poltava region.
In the city itself, there were at least 3 explosions.
@Slavyangrad