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Mark Sleboda with a realist and critical, Russian-focused perspective on international affairs, security & geopolitics.

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The Real Politick with Mark Sleboda

The Abyss of Russian-German Relations
My latest discussion with Marc Riemke on MGK1 26/07/25
https://youtu.be/JmnpkFBU6D8?si=yZf2IMbLz8xHblrV

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🇺🇦 Ukrainian opposition journalist in exile, Anatoly Shariy, reports that Zelensky is preparing to dismiss the head of his presidential office, Andriy Yermak.

According to Shariy, Yermak is making last-ditch efforts to salvage his standing, but Zelensky — increasingly isolated and clinging to power — has decided to cut him loose.

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🇺🇦 Guess who also appeared in Vogue, after the new Ukrainian Prime Minister - Zaluzhny got a whole column where he talks about his life

🐻 Ukrainian officials are really tone-deaf

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🇺🇸🇬🇧🇺🇦 US and UK representatives met in the Alps with Yermak, Budanov, and Zaluzhny — they discussed the prospects of replacing Zelensky, stated the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service.

The Americans and British announced the decision to nominate Zaluzhny for the post of President of Ukraine, Yermak and Budanov "stood at attention."

They secured promises from the Anglo-Saxons to keep their current positions, as well as to consider their interests when resolving other personnel issues, the agency noted.

"Clearing the political 'field' for Zaluzhny, Yermak 'set up' Zelensky — convincing him that such a step would not spoil the relations with Western partners, but in fact created a reason for the West to start a campaign to remove the 'expired' president from power as 'having attacked democracy'," the agency emphasized.

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On EU's Shocking Surrender To US: Trump Kicks Europe's Corpse
Part 2 of my latest discussion with Jamarl Thomas 28/07/25
https://youtu.be/aYhdenTL_Gs?si=Xf2XfE_hg2ouAXAZ

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🇺🇦 “Zelensky Has Fallen from His Democratic Pedestal”

Even after Zelensky agreed to restore full powers to Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau (NABU), Western media remain critical. The Financial Times writes that “Ukraine is backsliding,” and that “Zelensky has fallen from his democratic pedestal.”

According to the article, Zelensky is dismantling key checks and balances demanded by both Ukrainians and Western backers—though notably, not necessarily by the United States. His attack on NABU triggered the most serious political crisis since he took office in 2019, along with the largest protests since the Russian military operation began. The situation has jeopardized Ukraine’s EU accession process and access to EU and IMF funding.

Despite his U-turn under pressure, the article notes that “the damage to his reputation—both domestically and abroad—has already been done.”

The FT questions Zelensky’s claim that NABU was targeted due to “Russian influence.” While sabotage by Russian agents can’t be ruled out, the paper writes, “there is little evidence to support it.” Instead, anti-corruption activists suggest NABU was getting too close to Zelensky’s inner circle.

The paper points to a broader authoritarian shift. Opposition figures, activists, and foreign diplomats accuse Zelensky of using wartime powers to suppress dissent, restrict media freedoms, and centralize control—moves that have accelerated in recent weeks.

FT also notes that Zelensky has made no effort to form a unity government or consult opposition parties. Competent but independent officials are being replaced by loyalists. Ministers who grow too popular are treated as threats. All television stations are forced to broadcast a single, state-approved newscast. Independent journalists face harassment and pressure. Critical reporting is routinely dismissed as “Russian disinformation.”

The article concludes that the dismantling of NABU “bears all the hallmarks of a power grab orchestrated by Andriy Yermak.”

“Zelensky’s once-celebrated leadership in resisting Russian tyranny put him on a democratic pedestal,” the FT writes. “This week, he fell off.”

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🇮🇷🇮🇱 Israel’s 12-Day War with Iran Exposed Alarming U.S. Missile Shortages

During the June 2025 conflict, the U.S. deployed two THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) systems to Israel, firing over 150 interceptors—nearly 25% of the Pentagon’s total inventory since 2010. The pace of use was so severe that the U.S. considered redirecting Saudi Arabia’s THAAD supply to Israel.

The war strained not only THAAD stocks but also Navy SM-3 interceptor supplies, with ~80 missiles fired from destroyers. Concerns have emerged about the effectiveness of SM-3s and the lack of a system for reloading at sea, creating a major vulnerability for future conflicts—especially with China.

Key points:
- THAAD interceptors cost ~$13M each; only ~650 purchased to date
- Navy destroyers in the Mediterranean and Red Sea fired interceptors at unsustainable rates
- Israel nearly ran out of Arrow 3 munitions
- Voice-based deconfliction between U.S. and Israeli systems led to inefficiencies
- Pentagon now acknowledges deep stockpile shortfalls and the urgent need for a ramp-up in missile production
- Estimated cost to replenish THAAD interceptors: $1.5B–$2B

The conflict is a wake-up call: in modern warfare, mass missile barrages are the norm, not the exception.

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🇷🇺🇰🇵 North Korea Chooses Russia: Kim Jong-un’s Sister Rejects Dialogue with U.S. and South Korea — Politico

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea has firmly aligned itself with Russia and has no intention of making concessions to the United States or its allies, according to statements from Kim Jong-un’s sister, as reported by Politico.

Kim Yo-jong previously declared that Pyongyang has “nothing to discuss with Seoul” due to its hostile policies. She also dismissed the new South Korean Unification Minister Jeong Dong-won’s call for renewed dialogue, describing it as empty rhetoric masking the same old hostile stance.

As Politico notes, North Korea “has no intention of resuming diplomacy with South Korea or the United States anytime soon,” and instead remains committed to deepening its ties with Russia — including support for Moscow’s actions in the special military operation in Ukraine.

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🇷🇺💬🇪🇺🇺🇸 Dmitry Medvedev:

Trump Wipes the Floor with Europe

Say what you will about Trump — for all his contradictions and bombastic statements, he’s remarkably consistent in one thing: ruthlessly pushing America’s economic interests.

This latest “deal” with the European Union?

It’s utterly humiliating for the Europeans — the only winner here is the U.S. It strips away protective tariffs and opens the European market to American goods on American terms.

It slaps massive additional costs on EU industries and farmers, who now have to pay for overpriced American energy.

It redirects a flood of European investments straight into the U.S. economy.

And, of course, the deal comes with the mandatory anti-Russian clause: no buying Russian oil or gas. For Trump, it’s just business. For Europe’s senile leadership — it’s a neo-Nazi ideology dressed up as policy, one that’s driving their own citizens into poverty.

Ordinary Europeans deserve sympathy. At this point, they’d be justified in storming Brussels and hoisting every last Eurocrat — especially mad granny Ursula — up their national flagpoles.
It won’t fix anything.
But hey — at least it’d be entertaining.


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🇷🇺 "The main task, of course, is to defeat the enemy. For the first time in history, Russia is fighting alone against the entire West." - Lavrov

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🇮🇱 Satan’s Spawn, Bibi Netanyahu, proclaims:

"There is no starvation in Gaza, no policy of starvation in Gaza. I assure you we are committed to achieving our war goals."


A statement that spits in the face of every living soul with functional eyes.

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🇺🇸🇷🇺 Trump really loves deadlines. The latest one — aimed at Russia — is now 10–12 days. In other words, we’re back to his classic “two weeks.”

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🇺🇸🇷🇺 Trump says he’s “not so interested in talking” with Putin anymore.

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🇺🇸🇷🇺 Trump Unlikely to Enforce Promised Tariffs on Russian Oil – Reuters

Reuters reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to follow through on his threat to impose 100% tariffs on countries importing Russian oil.

➡️Tariff Threats Seen as Ineffective and Politically Risky

According to analysts, such measures would risk inflaming already high inflation—an issue that is politically sensitive in the U.S. Moreover, past threats of this kind, such as those made against buyers of Venezuelan oil earlier this year, have largely proven toothless—especially in relation to China, which simply circumvented the sanctions.

Fernando Ferreira of Rapidan Energy Group noted that secondary tariffs targeting Russian oil flows would be a “blunt instrument,” saying:

“If you’re ready to go nuclear—removing 4.5 million barrels per day from the market and cutting trade ties with other nations over Russian imports—you risk triggering a price shock and destabilizing the global economy.”

➡️Trump Prioritizes Oil Price Stability Over Sanctions Theater

Clay Seigle, senior fellow at CSIS, added that implementing full tariffs on Russian oil importers would shrink global supply and drive prices up. But he also emphasized that few believe Trump will go down that path.

Trump is known for his sensitivity to fuel prices and his preference for bilateral deals over rigid sanction regimes that could tie his hands in negotiations. Seigle noted that many market players likely see the tariff threats as political theater rather than actionable policy.

Just two days after the tariff warning, Trump publicly called $64 per barrel a “great level” and stated his goal is to push prices slightly lower, calling cheap oil “one reason inflation is under control.”
Prices have remained steady around $65 per barrel ever since, with no sign of major supply disruptions—further undermining the credibility of the tariff threats.

➡️Global Buyers Are Already Ignoring U.S. Threats

The weak follow-through on March’s Venezuelan tariff threats and the lack of serious energy sanctions on Russia have only deepened market skepticism. China, Venezuela’s top customer, has long adapted to U.S. pressure—reportedly purchasing over $1 billion in oil over the past year, often disguising it as Brazilian exports.
Venezuela’s oil exports surged in June, offsetting losses in the U.S. and EU markets.

➡️Political Timing Makes Tariffs Unlikely

Trump’s Republican party holds a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress. With midterms looming in 2026, analysts say Trump is unlikely to take any steps that would raise energy prices and jeopardize economic stability during an election cycle.

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The Real Politick - Week-in-Review - Episode 8 - 25/07/25
Exclusive Content for The Real Politick Subscribers on Boosty & our Discord Community
Covering: Inside Russia's Drone Factories, Patriot Promises, Abrams' Decimated, Desertion Soars for Kiev, Russian Breakthrough in Pokrovsk, Russia-Kiev Regime Talks Nothingburger, The Tripartite Meets on Iran Nuclear Program, Starlink Goes Down Globally, Russia-Belarus Union State Grows Closer, Protests in Ukraine, Fighting Breaks Out Between Thailand & Cambodia, Southpark's Take on Trump, Jeffrey Epstein and Satan,
https://boosty.to/therealpolitick/posts/ed802f7b-5a55-42fb-bdac-a7eb7a336680

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The Real Politick - In Focus - Episode 9 - Is Europe Planning for War on Russia?
Exclusive Content for The Real Politick Subscribers on Boosty & our Discord Community.
https://boosty.to/therealpolitick/posts/de63d0dc-74ba-4f45-92f8-4fc409dbc07a

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🇲🇩Moldova’s War on "Russian Propaganda" Escalates

Since 2022, Moldova’s PAS government has imposed sweeping media controls under the pretext of national security and EU integration. Using emergency powers, authorities shut down six major TV channels accused of spreading Russian disinformation — all linked to opposition figures like Ilan Shor and Vlad Plahotniuc.

Now, those ad-hoc bans are being written into permanent law. New amendments to the Audiovisual Code define and criminalize “disinformation,” grant regulators broad sanctioning powers, and codify restrictions on “extremist” or “anti-state” content. While framed as a defense of democratic values, critics warn these rules entrench political control and limit pluralism — especially with elections looming.

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🇮🇷🇨🇳 Iran’s First VP Pushes Stronger China Ties

Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref called for deeper ties with China, saying cooperation with regional and neighboring countries is now a strategic priority for the Islamic Republic.

Speaking to the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, Aref stressed that strengthening relations with friendly nations like China is a foreign policy focus under President Masoud Pezeshkian. He highlighted the potential for greater cooperation in science, technology, industry, and transportation.

Aref praised the private sector’s role in expanding Iran-China economic relations and said long-term development cannot rely solely on government resources. He noted that Article 44 of Iran’s Constitution supports full private sector participation and urged businesses to take the lead in foreign investment and cross-border projects—with government support to remove barriers.

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🇦🇿🇺🇦 According to JokerDPR, citing his sources in the SBU, Azerbaijan is ramping up serial production of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells destined for Ukraine.

The manufacturing line is being set up at the “Avia-Agregat” plant in Baku, where Turkish-supplied industrial presses — the Lasko-1000 and Lasko-350 — from Makin ve Kimya Endüstrisi Şirketi are currently being installed and calibrated.

At the same time, executives from several Azerbaijani military-industrial firms are in talks with the Bulgarian company Rais to acquire and operate two modern systems for producing artillery shell casings. Negotiations cover both procurement and logistics.

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On Kaliningrad: 2027 NATO Provocation Or Attack On Russia
Part 1 of my latest discussion with Jamarl Thomas 28/07/25
https://youtu.be/b63mmkQPzkg?si=1-2uOM2qX6kOa_YE

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🇮🇷🇦🇿🇦🇲 Iran: Zangezur Corridor a Threat Backed by U.S. and Israel

The Zangezur Corridor poses a direct threat to Iran’s national security and serves U.S.-Israeli interests, said Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader.

He called it a geopolitical tool to weaken the Axis of Resistance, cut Iran’s land access to the Caucasus, and impose a southern blockade on Iran and Russia. NATO and pan-Turkic forces are backing the project.

Velayati also warned that the U.S. seeks a 100-year lease on the route from Armenia to secure a direct link from Azerbaijan to Turkey — bypassing both Iran and Russia.

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🇺🇸🇪🇺 U.S.–EU Trade Deal: Washington Sets the Terms, Brussels Complies

The U.S. and EU have finalized a new trade agreement that clearly underscores who sets the rules in the transatlantic relationship—and who follows them.

➡️Key Terms of the Deal

Starting August 1, a 15% base tariff will be imposed on European goods entering the American market. This represents a significant reversal from the EU’s original goal of duty-free trade and marks a victory for Washington's protectionist agenda.

In exchange, the European Union has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy exports, including LNG and oil, and an undefined but “huge” volume of American-made military hardware—as described by President Trump himself.

➡️Washington Dictates, Brussels Obeys

The White House statement boldly claimed the deal “clarifies the rules of the game” for European companies—an implicit message that the EU must now operate under American-defined trade terms.

European leaders, who had hoped for more balanced concessions, are left with little to show. The agreement is a clear reflection of the asymmetric nature of the EU–U.S. relationship, where Brussels is expected to bankroll American industry and military production in exchange for market access—on Washington’s terms.

➡️Trump’s Justification

President Trump described the agreement as a way to "prevent an escalation" of economic disputes between the world’s two largest trading blocs. But in reality, this deal cements America’s upper hand—forcing the EU to deepen its economic dependence on U.S. energy and arms exports, all while submitting to new trade barriers.

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🇺🇸🇹🇼 Second Batch of American M1A2T Tanks Delivered to Taiwan

In the early hours of July 27, a second shipment of U.S.-made M1A2T “Abrams” tanks was offloaded at the port of Taipei. The delivery consisted of 42 units, including 4 M88A2 armored recovery vehicles.

After unloading, the equipment was immediately transported by heavy haulers to a military training center near Hukou, Hsinchu County.

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🇹🇭🇲🇾🇰🇭 Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to implement an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, effective from midnight tonight.

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🇵🇸 "There is no starvation in Gaza." - Netanyahu

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🇷🇺 The Su-35 has been equipped with a new long-range missile capable of striking targets up to 190 km away.

A recent photo shows the Russian Su-35 fighter armed with the R-77M (“Izdelye 180”), an upgraded air-to-air missile featuring active radar guidance. It’s a modernized version of the R-77-1, developed by the Vympel design bureau.

The R-77M is also intended for the Su-57. In addition to this missile, Russian Aerospace Forces already deploy R-37M hypersonic missiles with a range of up to 300 km.

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🇺🇸🇷🇺 Trump answers the question about whether he thinks Putin is lying to him

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🇧🇷 Brazil Strengthens BRICS Ties in Defiance of U.S. Pressure

Brazil plans to double its commitments to BRICS, according to Celso Amorim, chief foreign policy adviser to President Lula da Silva. Speaking to Financial Times, Amorim said U.S. threats are only pushing Brazil closer to the bloc.

➡️Trump Threatens Tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump twice this month threatened Brazil with tariffs—first a 10% duty on countries joining the “anti-American” BRICS, then a 50% tariff tied to demands that Brazil stop prosecuting former president Jair Bolsonaro over coup-related charges.

➡️Brazil Rejects U.S. Interference

Amorim called the threats unprecedented interference, noting that not even during colonial times had the U.S. interfered to such an extent.
He added that Brazil will continue expanding ties not only within BRICS but also with countries in Europe, South America, and Asia, to avoid dependence on the U.S.

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❗️Russian military think tank @rybar published an infographic highlighting the number of German Leopard 2 tanks destroyed by Russia in the Special Military Operation. 🇩🇪 💥

🇦🇺⚡️Prediction: Soon the analysts at Rybar will be publishing a fancy infographic on the destroyed 49 Australia Abrams tanks sent to Ukraine by Albanese...

@AussieCossack

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🇸🇾 Druze Forces Announce Autonomous Administration in Southern Syria

A Druze-led military body in southern Syria has declared the formation of an autonomous administration in the Jebel al-Arab region, centered around the city of Suweida.

➡️Key Declaration Points

The "Suweida Military Council" issued a statement accusing the Damascus regime of betrayal after repeated peace overtures by the Druze community. The group claims the goal is not secession but the restoration of self-governance and dignity. The statement reads:

“This is not a separatist project. We seek to reclaim decision-making power, uphold human dignity, and build a just model of governance in a time of devastation. We extend our hand to all who believe in a free and diverse Syria. Our weapons are aimed at aggressors, not fellow Syrians.”


➡️Structure and Nature of the New Authority

The newly declared Autonomous Administration will govern Suweida through local committees under its control. While it is nominally still part of Syria, the region will function with de facto independence.

The framework mirrors the Kurdish "Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria" — legally part of Syria, but in practice operating independently, with its own military (Syrian Democratic Forces) and backed by a foreign power (the U.S.).

➡️Implications and Outlook

The Druze project appears poised to follow the Kurdish model closely: a self-administered region with its own military wing (already in formation as the “Suweida Military Council”) and potential foreign backing, in this case from Israel.

This marks another step in the ongoing fragmentation of Syria.

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