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Mark Sleboda with a realist and critical, Russian-focused perspective on international affairs, security & geopolitics.
Fwd from @caucasar
📝Turkey "Probing" Russia in the Caucasus📝
On July 23, the pro-government Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak, directly linked to Erdogan's circle, published a resonant publication.
🖍The article focuses on the question of an Azerbaijani journalist asked Erdogan at the NATO summit in the Netherlands: "When will the Turkish army come to Azerbaijan? Without it, there is always a risk of a new Russian occupation."
🚩The article then emphasizes that the Azerbaijani authorities do not feel completely safe and speak of the need for a Turkish military presence.
There is a direct connection: no Turkish soldiers - there is a risk of the return of the Russians.
❗️Yeni Şafak does not publish such texts by chance - this is a probe of the ground and a demonstration of intentions. Through Yeni Şafak, the Turkish authorities are creating an agenda aimed at undermining trust in Russia.
However, an important point is that Turkish units, for example, from the Special Operations Forces, have already been present in Azerbaijan as advisers. They have been there on a rotational basis for many years, and this is not even to mention the Sadat PMC.
The meaning of this publication is to create the right mood in Azerbaijani and Turkish societies, where Turks are presented as "defenders against Russian aggression." Such populism is characteristic of this publication.
And therefore, it is very interesting when we will pay attention to this resource, which, by the way, broadcasts in Russian with an emphasis on the Turkic republics of Russia.
#Azerbaijan #Russia #Turkey
🗻@caucasar - don't think about the Caucasus from above
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🇺🇦 Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau (NABU) came under pressure after it tapped the phone of businessman Timur Mindich, according to Ukrainian MP Aleksey Goncharenko.
Mindich is a co-owner of “Kvartal 95” and widely known as Zelensky’s “wallet.” The two are close friends and longtime business partners.
Goncharenko claims that Mindich’s apartment served as Zelensky’s “shadow office,” where they discussed arms contracts, energy sector bribes, corporate raiding schemes, and which major businessmen to target with sanctions next.
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🇺🇸🛰 Starlink outages are being reported globally!
Earlier, Ukrainian media, citing an Azov fighter, reported that Starlink had stopped working along the entire front line.
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❗️Ukrainian ambassador to the UK Zaluzhny was spotted doing the Indian head wobble during an interview at the Ukrainian Embassy in London 😂
⚡️He is also stated his forecast that the war could drag on for a long time. Having started in 2014, at best it will end by 2034.
Zaluzhny is the former chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and now Ukraine's ambassador to the UK.
@AussieCossack
🇮🇷🇨🇳🇷🇺Tasnim: Russia, Iran, and China held talks on the Iranian nuclear program and external pressure in the form of sanctions.
It is reported that the talks took place in Tehran, and the main topic of the talks was the issue of resolving the crisis surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.
"The participants confirmed the sincere intention of their governments to continue close consultations to coordinate positions and actions and agreed that these meetings will continue at various levels among the three countries in the coming weeks," the publication says.
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🇺🇦💰 Wait, we were talking 6 billion just yesterday..?
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🇺🇸 The complete obliteration again, which they are willing to completely repeat, of course
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🇺🇸🇬🇧 U.S. Deploys Nuclear Bombs to Britain for First Time in 17 Years
For the first time since 2008, the United States has redeployed nuclear weapons to British soil, according to a report by the UK Defence Journal. Several B61-12 thermonuclear bombs have reportedly been transferred to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, a Royal Air Force base used by the U.S. Air Force.
The weapons were likely moved from Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, where the U.S. Air Force’s Nuclear Weapons Center is located, and placed in a newly constructed secure storage facility in the UK.
American nuclear weapons were previously stationed at Lakenheath during the Cold War but were removed in 2008 as part of arms reduction efforts across Europe.
The report notes that this move marks a “significant shift” in NATO’s nuclear posture in Europe, reflecting deteriorating relations with Russia and a renewed focus on so-called “deterrence.”
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🇩🇪🇺🇦The US and Germany have agreed on the delivery of whole five (!) Patriot systems to Ukraine, said German Defense Minister Pistorius.
"Germany will provide additional air defense systems and necessary ammunition. In addition, during my trip to Washington last week, I agreed with Pete Hegseth that Germany will join in providing five urgently needed Patriot systems as soon as possible," Pistorius said.
🇮🇱🇸🇾 Syria and Israel have agreed on a ceasefire. Israel will allow Syrian government forces to enter As-Suwayda and stop the ongoing clashes with the Druze factions. The proposal is backed by Turkey and other regional actors.
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🇺🇸🇷🇺NEW VIDEO: Ukraine Proxy-War: Trump Picks Up Where Biden Left Off
On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puftsUVUYLw
Trump didn't change his mind, he never intended to end the war in the first place. Years of policy papers written by his own cabinet members tell a story of continuity of agenda sold as "MAGA" and "America First."
Trump's Plan to Seize the Zangezur Corridor, Russia Breaches Kiev Regime's Defenses with Deep Flanking Penetration North of Pokrovsk, Air Defense is the US/Western Achilles Heel, more...
My latest geopolitical soapbox rant with Garland Nixon 24/07/25
https://www.youtube.com/live/BcijkvQ-6SU?si=mZK1xgbDQgI3ITID
🇹🇭🇰🇭My Latest Comments w/ Sputnik on Thai-Cambodian clashes...
Read here: https://sputnikglobe.com/20250724/thai-cambodian-sonflict-only-suits-america---ex-us-marine-1122485561.html
🇷🇺🇨🇳 Meet the new super weapon to replace the Russian washing machine - the Chinese refrigerator!
Chinese-made engines are being covertly shipped via front companies to a state-owned drone manufacturer in Russia, labelled as "industrial refrigeration units" to avoid detection in the wake of Western sanctions, according to three European security officials and documents reviewed by Reuters.
The shipments have allowed Russian weapons-maker IEMZ Kupol to increase its production of the Garpiya-A1 attack drone, despite the U.S. and E.U. sanctions imposed in October designed to disrupt its supply chain, according to the sources and documents, which included contracts, invoices and customs paperwork.
The Real Politick Community Weekly Q&A - Episode 8 - 23/07/25
Exclusive Content for The Real Politick subscribers on Boosty & our Discord Community.
With questions from PFR, DesmondoBob, Greg, and Johnathan King
Covering: Perils of Psycho-analyzing Trump, what are Russia & Iran doing to counter Azerbaijan, how can Putin stop Trump's play in the Zangezur Corridor, CIA bases in Ukraine, and the Crocus City terror prosecutions in Russia.
https://boosty.to/therealpolitick/posts/8d07dd22-649d-42f2-9594-d7b2c3111df9?share=post_link
🇺🇦 Zelensky’s decision to sign a law stripping powers from Ukraine’s main anti-corruption body, NABU, has triggered serious political consequences—many of which are already unfolding.
While the full impact on his regime will become clearer next week, especially depending on whether the anti-corruption bodies regain their authority, the fallout is already damaging.
➡️Youth-Led Protests Break the Taboo
For the first time, criticizing Zelensky is no longer taboo among Ukraine’s youth. The crackdown on NABU sparked a protest wave that has made opposition to his regime fashionable—something previously dismissed as Kremlin-backed subversion. The narrative that “you can’t criticize the president during wartime” is now shattered.
➡️Corruption Allegations Hit Inner Circle
Mounting evidence shows NABU was circling Zelensky’s closest allies in corruption probes. The prevailing perception is that Zelensky gutted the agency to shield his inner circle from prosecution. This naturally leads to a broader conclusion now gaining traction: Zelensky himself is corrupt.
➡️Western Media Turns on Zelensky
Major Western outlets—once fiercely loyal—are now openly publishing stories about corruption, authoritarianism, and incompetence inside Zelensky’s regime. These same accusations were once brushed off as “Russian propaganda.” Now, they’re front-page news.
The political tide is turning sharply against Zelensky. Whether he can reverse it remains uncertain.
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🇺🇦 Ukrainian media described the individuals who appeared at the Kiev protest as “uninvited provocateurs.”
According to their reports, the men arrived near the end of the demonstration and “caused bewilderment even among the protesters themselves.”
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🇺🇸🇺🇦 The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of air defense equipment to Ukraine worth $180 million, according to a Pentagon statement.
The request from the Kiev authorities reportedly included equipment and services for training personnel, maintenance, and repair of existing U.S.-made air defense systems.
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🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺The Ukrainian authorities have called for the evacuation of residents of Kramatorsk, controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to the Kiev-appointed head of the Donetsk regional military administration, there are currently 53 thousand people in the city. The official urged them to leave because "the situation is becoming more difficult every day."
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🇺🇦 According to the latest update on the Rada website, Zelensky has signed the bill on the reduction on NABU and SAP powers - and blamed it all on Russia
In his evening address, he commented:
The anti-corruption infrastructure will work. But without Russian influences - everything must be cleansed of that. And there must be more justice.
NABU and SAP will work. Cases that have been stagnant must be investigated. For years, officials who fled Ukraine have somehow been living peacefully abroad - in very pleasant countries and without legal consequences. This is abnormal. There is no rational explanation why criminal proceedings worth billions have been "hanging" for years. And there is no explanation why Russians can still receive the information they need. It is important that this happens without Russians. It is important that punishment is inevitable and that society truly sees this.
📝US and Brazil on the Brink of a Trade War📝
The White House is tackling the "Brazilian issue"
The next target of the US sanctions policy may be Brazil: in Washington, they are considering various measures, including raising import tariffs from 50% to 100%, technology restrictions, and even complicating access to GPS and data from other American satellites.
🖍The Folha de São Paulo publication has already confirmed that American diplomats have sent a clear signal - the foreign policy course of the United States is becoming tougher. New measures may affect government structures as well, in addition to the existing sanctions against individual judges of the Brazilian Supreme Court.
🚩In Brazil, they are not sitting idle: in case of disconnection from the American GPS, they are discussing the possibility of more active use of alternatives - the Russian GLONASS, the Chinese BeiDou, the European Galileo, and the Indian NavIC.
📌This story is another illustration of how even formal US allies risk turning from a partner into a threat the moment they step out of the Washington corridor. In a situation where Americans are losing the ability to control regions directly, tariff batons and other levers are increasingly being used.
#Brazil #USA
⭐@rybar in collaboration with @CentralGeopolitica
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🇺🇸🇹🇷🇸🇾 NEW: The U.S. and Turkey have given the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) a 30-day ultimatum to finalize their merger with the Syrian Army.
➡️ The March deal between SDF leader Mazloum Abdi and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has stalled over Kurdish demands for autonomy and separate command.
➡️ U.S. & Turkish officials warned: non-integrated SDF units will be disarmed. Damascus will retain full control.
➡️ Syria refuses to absorb the YPJ (all-women units) due to PKK ties.
U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack:
We’ll help, but we’re not going to be here forever as the babysitter and the mediator.
📝Sunken Reputation📝
on the effectiveness of the EU military mission in the Red Sea
Against the backdrop of the latest strikes by Israel on Yemen, the article in The Economist about the complete failure of the European naval operation "Aspid," launched to counter attacks in the Red Sea region, looks quite remarkable.
Indeed, one can recall recent episodes when the Houthis sank the Greek bulk carriers Magic Seas and Eternity C, even publishing footage of their capture. The Europeans simply watched all this unfold.
The reasons for the failure were a lack of warships and insufficient funding for modernization programs. As a result, the ships were constantly breaking down, and some even failed to reach the Red Sea, canceling their participation in the mission.
🖍However, it would have been reckless to expect anything else: if even the Americans with their carrier strike groups could not fully secure the bulk carriers and tankers, then it was excessive to count on the Europeans in such a situation.
🚩 At the same time, the volume of transit traffic in the region has decreased by 60% since October 2023. So while the Houthis failed to sink a warship, with their modest forces they were able to (albeit not entirely critically) disrupt world trade.
❗️And this is a clear illustration of why a navy is needed: if it is not capable of at least protecting shipping from pirates, then even a handful of fighters in sandals can capture bulk carriers and tankers and inflict a tangible economic damage. Or the coast guard of some borderland countries.
#EU #Yemen
⭐️ @rybar
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🇧🇷❌🇺🇸 Lula da Silva: A gringo does not give orders to Brazil
The Brazilian president reiterated that he intends to negotiate the tariff threat from the United States, but clarified that "it will not be a gringo who gives orders" to his country.
"I am certain that the president of the United States has never negotiated 10% of what I have negotiated in my life," Lula stated, adding that, precisely for that reason, he defends multilateralism, which "allows states to live more or less in harmony and with respect."
He also mentioned that Trump "seems to not even know that the United States has a surplus" in its trade relationship with Brazil for the past fifteen years. Therefore, he criticized that the president of the United States only wants to negotiate on the basis of "releasing Bolsonaro."
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🇹🇭🇰🇭 My comments with RT regarding the Thai-Cambodian conflict...
Читать полностью…
🇺🇸🇺🇦 The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of air defense equipment to Ukraine worth $180 million, according to a Pentagon statement.
The request from the Kiev authorities reportedly included equipment and services for training personnel, maintenance, and repair of existing U.S.-made air defense systems.
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🇹🇭🇰🇭 External Factors Regarding Thai-Cambodian Conflict ...
▪️While ASEAN is growing closer to China, Thailand has done so to a greater extent than Cambodia;
▪️Look at this 2023 summary of Thai and Cambodian exports per partner - Thai exports are around 18% (14% China, 4% Hong Kong which is still China) while exports to the US are 16%. The majority of Thai exports are to other destinations in Asia;
▪️Cambodian exports are overwhelmingly dependent on the US and the West in general with a minority of exports going to other nations within Asia itself - the US dollar itself is used for transactions INSIDE Cambodia itself;
▪️While not an absolute metric, this economic dependence on the US manifests itself in Washington's ability to pressure, coerce, and otherwise shape policies of a target nation;
▪️Cambodia has worked to reverse this - but as can be seen, US influence over Cambodia is still significant - this is in addition to US political interference which is extensive in both Thailand & Cambodia;
🇺🇦🇬🇧 When even The Telegraph is now saying that Zelensky should step down, you know it's THAT bad in Ukraine...
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
🇹🇭🇰🇭On the Recent Thailand-Cambodia Conflict - Details the Western Media Won't Report
▪️Following Thai soldiers injured by Cambodian-placed mines along a disputed border and downgraded diplomatic ties, Cambodia has launched Grad MLRS strikes on populated areas causing indiscriminate death and destruction;
▪️Thai forces are responding with greater but still measured force against Cambodian military targets near disputed areas - Thailand's military is several times larger in size than Cambodia's and possesses vastly greater capabilities than Cambodia calling into further suspicion Cambodia's provocative actions;
▪️Western media is pretending not to know who started the shooting and is deliberately trying to link China to Cambodia and its actions - however - Thailand has a by far larger relationship with China than Cambodia and by far greater amounts of modern weapons from China than Cambodia including a Chinese main battle tank fleet, long-range precision guided rocket launchers, drones, APCs/IFVs, and Chinese air defense systems;
▪️This border dispute has erupted into violence over the past years (2008 and 2011) - at both previous junctures US-backed client regimes were either struggling to stay in power or were attempting to get into power - and now fighting has begun again as a US-backed client regime is likewise hanging in the balance;
▪️Cambodian PM Hun Sen, while having a growing relationship with China and having been targeted by US-backed regime change himself, has systematically aided US-backed sedition in neighboring Thailand for 20 years - Cambodia also maintains the US as its largest and most important export market - an outlier in Southeast Asia which mostly exports to China and others in the region;
▪️Like every other conflict around the globe, people need to be cautious about accepting Western news reports at face value - this will NOT be the "first" conflict they report on honestly and without ulterior motives;
📝Trump's Bridge to Hell📝
According to media reports, it is written that Washington, Yerevan and Baku have approved a memorandum on transferring control over the "Zangezur Corridor" in southern Armenia to an American PMC. The project is called the "Trump's Bridge".
🖍The information appeared in the Spanish publication Periodista Digital, which refers to sources in the Armenian diaspora in France who received the document from the Armenian authorities.
🚩The PMC will receive control over the road in the Syunik region of Armenia, which will connect Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey, for 99 years, taking at least 40% of the transit revenues, while only 30% will go to the Armenian budget.
🏳️According to media estimates, the PMC's strength may reach 1,000 fighters. The "Zangezur Corridor" is located on the border with Iran, to which the Americans will now get close.
🔻Why could this be true?
▪️The idea of transferring control over southern Armenia to the Americans was first voiced by the US Ambassador to Turkey, stating that the initiative came from the Turkish side. The State Department did not deny the information.
▪️Donald Trump recently stated that he allegedly "performed a miracle" with Armenia and Azerbaijan, hinting at a deal.
▪️US Ambassador to Armenia Christine Quinn began active consultations with local authorities on unblocking communications.
❗️"Trump's Bridge" is a project of military occupation of part of Armenia for an offensive on Iran, since there is no transport infrastructure in the "corridor" yet, and its construction is a long and costly project.
Such a plan threatens a major war in the region, which will lead to a catastrophe. Armenia will lose part of its sovereignty, becoming a military bridgehead against its own ally, and the "Turkish world" will become a reality.
High-resolution map
English version
#Azerbaijan #Armenia #USA #Turkey
⭐️ @rybar
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