The world benefits from China exporting deflation to the rest of the globe, need to manage portfolio risk
Looking for better free cash flow generation from IT services
Matt Orton, Raynomd James to CNBC-TV18
ITC Hotels demerger from ITC Ltd: Passive funds' reaction <ex-date on Jan 6, 2025> (listing expected in ~30 to 40 days)
By Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research
ITC to demerge its hotels business, record date set for January 6, 2025
1- How will the price of ITC Hotels determine (until it lists) ?
· The price of ITC Hotels, as should ideally be maintained by domestic Active and Passive Fund Managers, will be calculated based on the difference between the closing prices of ITC on January 3, 2025, and open price of ITC discovered during the SPOS (special pre-open session) on January 6, 2025.
2- How will domestic passive Indices treat ITC Hotels (ITC Hotels) ?
· ITC Hotels will be maintained in all the NSE and BSE Indices at a constant price i.e., the difference between the close price of ITC on January 3, 2025, and open price of ITC discovered during the SPOS (special pre-open session) on January 6, 2025.
· ITC Hotles will be dropped from all the NSE and BSE indices at the last traded price which is Effective at the open of ITC Hotels listing date + 3 business days. If the stock hits circuit limits, the exclusion will be postponed by two trading days each time.
· For Instance : If supposedly ITC Hotels lists on February 10, 2025 then stock will compulsorily be deleted on February 13, 2025.
3- Do passive fund managers (mainly Nifty 50 and Sensex) need to make any adjustments (actual buying or selling) on Jan 06, 2025?
· No- The end of the day index weightages file will automatically get adjusted to the free float market-cap of existing constituents plus ITC Hotels.
· There will be churning or weight distribution (actual buying or selling) amongst other member constituents once ITC Hotels starts trading and get excluded on Trading plus third day. So actual churning will happen on ITC Hotels exclusion day (in future).
4- How will global indices react?
Implementation in the MSCI Indexes -
Based on estimates, ITC Hotels is expected to meet the criteria for inclusion in the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes. As a result, ITC Ltd. will remain part of the Standard Index. However, following the listing of ITC Hotels, the hotel business will be moved to the Small Cap Index and will no longer be part of the Standard Index.
MSCI intends to apply a Price Adjustment Factor (PAF) to the market price of ITC on January 06, 2025 to reflect the spin-off. The PAF formula will be as follows: [P(t-1)] / [P(t)].
Since ITC HOTELS is not expected to start trading on the ex-date, MSCI intends to temporarily add a detached security ITC (DET) to the MSCI Global Standard Indexes as of close of January 06, 2025 (effective January 07, 2025). The price of ITC (DET) will be calculated by taking the difference between the closing price of ITC on January 03, 2025 and January 06, 2025. MSCI intends to maintain ITC (DET) at this price until ITC HOTELS begins trading.
When ITC HOTELS starts trading, MSCI intends to apply a PAF to the market price of ITC (DET) based on terms of spin-off. Thereafter, MSCI intends to delete ITC (DET) from the MSCI Global Standard Indexes as of the close of the first trading day of ITC HOTELS using the closing market price of ITC HOTELS. Simultaneously, MSCI intends to add ITC HOTELS to the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes as of the close of its first trading day.
Implementation in the FTSE Index
As per the current methodology, the stock (ITC Hotels) will be excluded if it does not list within 20 working days after the Record Date of the demerger. We will keep you updated in case FTSE makes any official announcements regarding this. Based on my general understanding, there should not be any exclusion of ITC Hotels.
5- Will ITC Hotels be added in weight calculation in key passive indices like i) Nifty 50 Index, ii) Sensex Index and other broader Indices ?
BROKERAGE PICKS FOR 2025
MOTILAL OSWAL TOP PICK-JSW ENERGY TP, 816, Upside Potential +27%
ICICI SECURITIES-PICKS FOR 2025
Services, consumption (largely discretionary) and healthcare – Bharti Airtel, Indigo, ITC, M&M, Infosys, Kajaria, Signature global, Lemon Tree, Aurobindo, Piramal Pharma.
Industrials – L&T, BHEL, Tata Power, NTPC, JSW Steel, JSPL, Ambuja, GAIL, HPCL, Navin Fluorine, Solar Industries.
Financials - HDFC Bank, SBI, Bajaj Finance, SBI Life, Angelone.
AXIS CAPITAL-PICKS FOR 2025
Tata Motors, M&M, SBI, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Indian Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, PB Housing Finance, HDFC AMC, Shriram Finance, SRF, PI Industries, Varun Beverages, GCPL, Nykaa, Vedant Fashions, Devyani International, NTPC, JSW Energy,L&T, ABB, Siemens,Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Aster DM, Glenmark Pharma,IPCA Labs, Ultratech Cement, JK Cement, Hindalco, Bharti Airtel
Today's action in markets shows that undervalued stocks have performed great and are likely to perform so.
Focus on these 3 stocks:
Manoj Vaibhav PE 15.3, 16.58%⬆️
KNR Construction PE 8.77, 8.20% ⬆️
Ashoka Buildcon PE 9.88, 6.61% ⬆️
It seems that value buying is back. We need to change according to the situation.
Sunteck Realty
- Development Pipeline with key launches in MMR with high GDV potential
- Dubai Expansion, Luxury residential project with ₹4,500 Cr GDV
- MMR Focus with Aggressive pre-sales targets in high-demand areas
One interesting company i will share with you all
Читать полностью…
Don't miss this golden opportunity
Ratnaveer Precision
Market Cap₹ 994 Cr.
Current Price 187
Stock P/E: 25.1
•ICICI Securities has initiated coverage:- Target price of 245•
••Implementation of a 2 phase capital expenditure plan••
A. Phase 1 is 80% complete and is expected to be operational on 1 Jan, 2025.
B. Land for phase 2 has been identified. Implementation will begin in Jan, 2025.
-Ratnaveer has raised 95 cr through a preferential allotment of equity share and warrants for business expansion and long term working capital requirement.
-Company aims to improve its bottom line in future
- Company expects margins to expand YoY
-Company is expecting continued revenue growth in future
-Ratnaveer is looking to expand its business presence in other countries by partnering with local companies to diversify it's product lines and markets.
-Company is committed to invest in brand building
•Why stock fall 32% from its ATH 274?•
-Because company had planned to raise additional 325 cr through preferential allotment route. It had some inorganic growth options ( Acquisitions) in mind at that time but it didn't find any right opportunity. So it withdrew the plan. Stock plunged 32% post this development.
-But company's growth is intact. Only inorganic growth( Acqusitions) may have got delayed, but the organic growth story is very strong.
-Post correction stock is available at very attractive valuation. Also it's at very strong support and there is a very strong possibility of rebound from here.
•Key Risks•
-Availablity of raw material
-High competitive environment
-High working capital requirement
-Slowdown in industrial Capex
Credit : thealpha10x
More interesting info must join
@fundamental3
𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐈𝐈 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬!📊🎯
1.IIFL WEALTH MANAGEMENT
FII Holdings-65.6%
2.IXIGO
FII Holdings-59.8%
3.REDINGTON
FII Holdings-58.0%
4.MAX HEALTHCARE INSTITUTE
FII Holdings-57.3%
5.HDFC BANK
FII Holdings-48.0%
6.ICICI BANK
FII Holdings-46.2%
7.APOLLO HOSPITALS
FII Holdings-45.4%
8.TBO TEK LTD.
FII Holdings-43.1%
9.COFORGE
FII Holdings-42.1%
10.AU SMALL FINANCE BANK
FII Holdings-40.7%
11.CROMPTON GREAVES CONSUMER ELEC.
FII Holdings-36.0%
12.MAHANAGAR GAS
FII Holdings-34.2%
India Precision Engineering Theme
Precision engineering is a specialized field of engineering that focuses on designing, developing, and manufacturing products with extremely high accuracy and tight tolerances
Market Size -
USD 13.07 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 6.8% from 2023 to 2030, potentially reaching around USD 22.05 billion by 2030
Companies in this space -
Jyoti CNC -
Co. is a leading manufacturer of simultaneous 5-axis CNC machines in India, with a 10% market share in the country.
Azad Engineers -
Co. is a manufacturer of aerospace components and turbines and supplies its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the aerospace, defense, energy, and oil and gas industries
Balu Forge -
Co. is engaged in the manufacturing of fully finished and semi-finished forged crankshafts and Forged Components. It has the capability to manufacture components conforming to the New Emission Regulations & the New Energy Vehicles
Harsha Engineers -
Co. is a leading engineering company that offers a diversified suite of products across geographies and end-user industries
Gala Precision-
Co is a manufacturer of precision components such as disc and strip springs (DSS), coil and spiral springs (CSS), and special fastening solutions (SFS)
-------------------------------
Dis - Not buy/sell recommendation, for education purpose
Negative numbers does not mean, the co is not doing well, it may be turnaround story. Do detailed research to generate good results.
HBL Power - Guidance (vs) Reality for FY 2024-25 - YTD Sep 2024
Mgt Guided Flattish Year but PAT of H1 2024-25 grown at 40% due to below reasons
- Operating Margins increased from 17%- 18% to 21%
- Associates started driving profits (H1 > FY 2023-24)
- Other income
Robust Outlook ahead with
- Kavach Loco Orders
- Kavach Track orders (incoming)
- Biggest boost is Electric Trucks from 2025-26
Focus on High Growth Sectors + Market Leaders
Many exited this play due to flattish Guidance
HBLpower
INOX WIND ; Inox Wind bags order from Serentica Renewables
Receives equipment supply order for 60 MW from Serentica Renewables for its 3 MW class wind turbines
Inox Wind to supply the turbines within H1 CY25 for the project which is being executed by Serentica in Karnataka
Multi-year post commissioning O&M services to be part of the contract
This milestone order for IWL opens up large future opportunities to partner with another marquee C&I customer. In its quest to decarbonize energy intensive industries through green power, Serentica has ambitious plans to massively scale up its RE capacities.
CITI ON LIC HOUSING FINANCE
MANAGEMENT MEET TAKEAWAYS
Temporary hitch in Hyd/Bangalore (>1/4 of disbursement) adversely impacting disbursement growth
Retained 10% AUM growth target; (Citi building in 7-8% growth)
Seasonally robust 3Q might not be evident this year; though there may be marginal rise
Tight liquidity pressurizing borrowing cost; to offse offset favorable yield levers
NIMs to sustain at lower end of guidance of 2.7%-2.9%
Resolution through ARC sale for ₹2.5 bn to release provisions
Yield levers include -
Rise in wholesale book share
Plan to scale portfolio of affordable housing launched in Sep
Push towards rate structure tweak
Record 30GW addition in renewable energy this year!
Strong policy push for storage & hybrid energy solutions. 2025 will see even more robust capacity creation, but grid integration remains a key challenge.
· Yes – ITC Hotels will be 51st constituent in Nifty50 and 31st constituent in Sensex and daily will be considered in weight calculations of Index. However as it is not traded live so its market-cap and price will remain constant until it lists. Post its listing for three trading days, live market-cap will be considered to calculate weight in all the indices.
6- Any tentative day of ITC Hotels Listing ?
· There is no concrete listing day yet and it may take few weeks’ time to get all the listing approvals. ITC Hotels being carved out from one of the biggest giants so we expect the listing process should be fast tracked and quite likely ITC Hotels may be listed in a month’s time (or even earlier). We will keep you posted.
Three prominent recent instances-
· Jio Financials : The business got demerged from Reliance Ind and post record date it took almost 33 days for the listing
· Piramal Pharma: The business got demerged from Piramal Enterprises and post record date it took almost 45 days for the listing.
· NMDC Steel: The business got demerged from NMDC Ltd and post record date it took almost 4 month for the listing.
7 – What will be the domestic passive selling in ITC Hotels?
· I do not wish to create any speculation at this point, and it’s better to wait for the ex-date on January 6, 2025, to gain a clearer understanding of the tentative pricing for ITC Hotels. Any which ways any selling in ITC Hotles will only happen once it lists and that happen by mid of February (our estimate).
8 - Alongside on listing will Indian Hotels automatically be introduced in derivatives?
· No – As per the current methodology, a stock needs to have at least six month trading history to even qualify for derivative inclusion. After fulfilling all the quantitative qualification criteria for the derivative inclusion , the stock will need SEBI approval (which is quite subjective).
9 - Fundamental valuation of ITC and its various businesses -
· On January 6, 2025, the ex-date for the demerger, ITC's share price is expected to be adjusted by INR 22-25, reflecting its 40% stake in the hotel business and incorporating a 20% holding discount. According to our FMCG team (Abneesh Roy), the adjustment is expected to be INR 18 per share (Refer below table) .
· In addition, based on discussions with multiple market participants, we anticipate that the initial market price for ITC Hotels shares will range between INR 150-175 per share.
ITD CEMENTATION IN FOCUS
ITD CEMENTATION: CO SET TO WIN RUPEES 1,648 CR WORK FOR VADHVAN PORT - ET INFRA
7 "Defence sector" stock picks by Antique stock brokers
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Short term trading , positional trading
And learning priceaction join now @wealthcreator7
Stock SIP, long term investment don't miss to join @stocksip
Corporate update, quaterely result, management guidance @companyupdate
Daily one company Fundamental analaysis in detail daily
@fundamental3
US STOCK Chart study for more detail visit
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Order Book, capex and stock information in detail @stockinfo33
Stock market statics and information @stockinfo3
All IPO Updates Live @ipoinfo3
All conference call and detail stock study @nilfaldu
ATMASTCO- FUND RAISE & OUTLOOK
↗️Atmastco is in biz of EPC, Turnkey Projects ( Ferrous, Non-Ferrous), Structural Steel Works & Industrial Engineering
↗️Has Technical tie-ups with SIC Italy, Maertz, Ducon USA
↗️Caters to sectors like Steel, Power, Railways, Cement
↗️Co is venturing into Defense for mfr of Bullet Proof Jackets/Helmets ( samples already approved by DRDO). Production got delayed due to funds crunch.
↗️ Co coming out with P Offer in which promoter too putting 20 Cr
↗️We estimate Defense plant to start in Q2FY26
↗️FY26E Rev 650 Cr PAT 55 Cr
↗️An attractive Buy as Defense stocks tdg @ 30-100 PE
UNDERVALUED Potential MULTIBAGGER stock:
DEEP Industries
CMP 551
Market Cap₹ 3,524 Cr.
Stock P/E 25.5
••Growth Triggers••
- Production Enhancement Contracts(PEC) worth 1402 cr with ONGC for 15 years. It will contribute to revenue from FY 26 onwards
- Strong order book of 2622 cr in FY 25 and a bidding pipeline of 800 cr.
-High Margins are likely to sustain or increase
••Future Growth Expectations••
-35-40•% growth for next 2-3 years.
Sectors that look interesting for 2025:
1. Hotels
2. Platform businesses (not the popular ones)
3. Lab Grown/Regional Jewellers
4. Hospitals
5. Corporate backed NBFCs
6. Entire Transmission theme (from conductors to towers)
7. Capital good suppliers for Data centre build out globally
8. CDMO/CMO- Pharma
9. B2B Distributors who are gaining scale by acquiring
10. Pre engineered buildings
11. Real estate
12. Investment bankers
13. Value retail
14. SAAS businesses listed in India
Disclaimer: these are sectors where growth rates are much faster than the nominal GDP growth.
ORDER BOOK > MCAP ✅
1. #GENUSPOWER
MCAP - 13020
ORDERBOOK - 31776
2. #POWERMECH
MCAP - 8917
ORDERBOOK - 58067
3. #GENOSOL
MCAP - 2957
ORDERBOOK - 9055
4. #CAPACITE
MCAP - 3654
ORDERBOOK - 9203
5. #JKIL
MCAP - 5942
ORDERBOOK - 18721
6 #ASHOKA
MCAP- 8239
ORDERBOOK - 11104
Sectors That Could be Winners in 2025
👌 Co-Working Space
👌 Pre-Engineered Building
👌 Private Banks
👌 Waster Water Treatment
👌 Data Center
👌 Transmission
👌 Premium Alcohol
👌 Luxury Goods
👌 Auto Ancillaries
👌 Battery Chemical
👌 EV Batteries
👌 CDMO
Transrail Lighting Ltd.
Integrated EPC company specializing in power infra, transmission towers, poles, and conductors.
- FY24 Revenue ₹4,076 Cr | 95% from EPC contracts | 59% export-driven.
₹10,100 Cr order book, 35% capacity expansion planned
Discover the Top picks of High Growth, Low PE companies in the SME and Microcap segment
📌Sectors covered based on FY26 valuations in Set 11:
🔸Re-commerce
🔸Heat Exchanger (Nuclear power)
Ashok Kumar Tyagi, MD of #DLF, reveals a hike in the initial down payment to ₹50 lakh (from ₹2-3 lakh) for luxury launches, aiming for a target margin of nearly 45%.
With pre-sales guidance for FY25 at ₹16,000-17,000 crore, he remains confident in achieving the goal. Currently, margins for new sales stand at nearly 40%.
CITI ON M&M FINANCIAL SERVICES
MANAGEMENT MEET TAKEAWAYS
Two pronged strategies - Protect moat in Vehicle financing, and diversification
Looking for scale up in mortgage, ramp up SME/LAP and build payment biz
Guided for 5-7% disbursements (vs 2% growth in H1) and high teens AUM growth in FY25
Fee levers like corporate agency, co Bour branded cards key RoA Delta
Opex/Asset at 2.7% with +10bp upward bias to expand footprint
To evaluate equity raise in 2HFY25
EMS Sector has not even begun to scratch the surface
Total capex incurred by listed companies in the sector as of 2024 is hardly ~2700 Crs. Single companies in China do 3X that
Total Capex by ALL listed EMS companies
Mar'24 ~2727 Crs
Mar'23 ~1823 Crs
Mar'22 ~1387 Crs
Mar'21 ~510 Crs
Mar'20 ~537 Crs
Mar'19 ~340 Crs
Mar'18 ~289 Crs
Mar'17 ~263 Crs
Mar'16 ~213 Crs
Mar'15 ~192 Crs
Will maintain CAGR of 30-40% over the next few years on washing machine business, Intend to keep margin at around 7.5-8%
Not giving a very bullish call on margins as we have to monitor competitive intensity
Vikas Gupta, PG Electroplast to CNBC-TV18
