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Fastest Breaking Markets Updates Crypto • Finance • Technology • War
$500 MILLION LIQUIDATED FROM THE CRYPTO MARKET IN THE LAST 24HRS — BINANCE SEES LARGEST SINGLE LIQUIDATION ORDER OF $74.98M IN BTCUSDT
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Election week implied move: Goldman Sachs:
*Trump w/ Republican Sweep = 25% probability: S&P +3%
*Trump w/ Divided Government = 30% probability: S&P +1.5%
*Harris w/ Democratic Sweep = 5% probability: S&P -3%
*Harris w/ Divided Government = 40% probability: S&P -1.5%
*WARREN BUFFETT'S BERKSHIRE CASH PILE HITS RECORD $325.2 BILLION
*BERKSHIRE SOLD 25% OF ITS APPLE STOCK IN Q3
*THE COMPANY DIDN'T BUY ANY STOCK IN Q3
*Everything is so expensive to Buffett- even his own stock - that for the first time since launching his buyback program in 2018, Buffett repurchased exactly zero shares of Berkshire in Q3: zerohedge
NFP DATA IN 40 MIN: @infinityhedge
*NFP EST.: +101k, Prev. +254k
*Unemployment rate EST.: 4.1%, Prev. 4.1%
JP Morgan SPX Play: +157k
*80k-120k: flat to +0.5% [40%]
*120k-200k: +0.5% to +0.75% [30%] [Goldilocks print]
*20k-80k: -0.25% to -0.5% [20%]
*>200k: -0.25% to +0.5% [5%]
*<20k: -0.75% to -1.5% [5%] [recession hint]
Goldman Sachs SPX Play: 95k [forecast]
*>250k: at least -1%
*200k-250k: -0.5% to -1%
*125k-200k: ±0.5%
*75k-125k: +0.5% to +1%
*<75k: flat to -0.5%
Other Forecasts:
*Mizuho Securities: 180k
*BofA: 100k
*CITI: 90k
*MS: 75k
*Bloomberg: -10k
*Reuters Survey: +113k
*APPLE 4Q REV. 94.93B, EST. $94.36B
*APPLE 4Q GREATER CHINA REV. $15.03B, EST. $15.8B
*APPLE 4Q IPHONE REVENUE $46.22B, EST. $45.04B
*APPLE 4Q SERVICE REV. $24.97B, EST. $25.27B
ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS IRAN IS PREPARING TO ATTACK ISRAEL FROM IRAQI TERRITORY IN THE COMING DAYS, POSSIBLY BEFORE THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: AXIOS
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1inch Front-End Compromised
DO NOT CONNECT WALLET
*Update: 1inch Team: A fix has been applied, if you have accessed the dapp recently please clear your browser cache before accessing the site again
MICROSTRATEGY EARNINGS:
*EPS: -$1.72 vs -$0.12
*Rev.: $116M vs $121M
*MicroStrategy announced a strategic goal of raising $42B of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities. They plan to use the additional capital to buy more bitcoin.
KRAKEN CUTS 15% OF ITS WORKFORCE: NYT REPORTER
YESTERDAY:
*DYDX LAID OFF 35% OF ITS 'CORE TEAM'
*CONSENSYS LAID OFF 20% OF ITS EMPLOYEES
TRADERS PRICE RISING LIKELIHOOD OF FED PAUSE IN DECEMBER
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ALPHABET 3Q REV. $88.27B, EST. $86.45B
ALPHABET 3Q REV. EX-TAC $74.55B, EST. $72.88B
ALPHABET 3Q GOOGLE CLOUD REV. $11.35B, EST. $10.79B
ALPHABET 3Q EPS $2.12, EST. $1.84
OPENAI IS WORKING WITH BROADCOM AND TSMC TO BUILD ITS FIRST IN-HOUSE CHIP
BROADCOM AND OPENAI DEVELOPING AN AI INFERENCE CHIP: RTRS SOURCES
OPENAI HAS RESERVED 2026 TSMC MANUFACTURING CAPACITY
OPENAI USING AMD CHIPS ALONGSIDE NVIDIA CHIPS
TRUMP WILL WIN US ELECTION, DECISION DESK PROJECTS
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DECISION DESK HQ PROJECTS TRUMP WINS NORTH CAROLINA
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CRYPTO FIRMS INCLUDING ROBINHOOD, KRAKEN LAUNCH GLOBAL STABLECOIN NETWORK - RTRS
*Anchorage Digital, Bullish, Galaxy Digital, Kraken, Nuvei, Paxos and Robinhood have partnered to release a new stablecoin network called Global Dollar Network
*$USDG (Global Dollar) is a new stablecoin issued out of Singapore by Paxos that is substantively compliant with the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s upcoming stablecoin framework.
*$USDG is an ERC-20 token
*$USDG is currently unavailable in CA, all EEA countries and in the U.K.
The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge | Election Week
Macro:
*China's National People's Congress Meeting [to green light Stimulus package but WSJ Today reported “China Isn’t Planning a ‘Bazooka’ Stimulus—at Least Not This Year”] 4-8 Nov.
*U.S Presidential Election on 5
*U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision on 7 [25 bps cut is widely anticipated]
*Iran retaliation attack against Israel expected, Iranian official: Iran doesn’t want to influence the U.S. election so, the response would come after Tuesday’s voting but before a new president is inaugurated in January
Crypto:
**SEC vs Binance, Defendants’ answers or pleadings in response to the amended complaint due on 4
**SEC vs Binance, Discovery Hearing on 6
*Caroline Ellison Surrender date would be set on or after Nov. 7.
*MakerDAO will run a poll to determine the long-term brand of the backend protocol between 4 to Nov. 7, with three poll options [infinityhedge]: Keep the Sky brand, Recenter the Maker brand or Recenter the Maker brand, with a limited brand refresh
*Kraken’s L2 blockchain ‘ink’ testnet on 10
*HYPE Users must review and accept the Genesis Event Terms to participate in Airdrop before Nov. 11, 2024 23:59 UTC
*Bitwise Ethereum ETF, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust options decision deadline Nov. 11
*DevCon 7 Event, Bangkok [11-15] [Uniday, Kraken, etc]
Token Unlocks:
$APT: $90M: 2.18% on 11
$BANANA: $12M: 7% on 8
What Data Says about BTC:
The options market signals expected moves of about 8% in either direction the day after the vote, compared to typically 2% up or down on a normal day — No significant volatility premium is priced in after Nov. 7, suggesting the market expects a fairly quick resolution — For the weeks after the election, data from the Deribit exchange hint at a possible $60k to $80k trading range based on peak open interest — or outstanding contracts
Earnings/Charts/Articles ⬎
US OCT. NONFARM PAYROLLS:
*US OCT. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 12K M/M; EST. +100K
*US OCT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%
*US OCT. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US BLS: HURRICANES LIKELY AFFECTED OCT. PAYROLLS IN SOME SECTORS
*BIDEN: JOB GROWTH EXPECTED TO REBOUND IN NOVEMBER
U.S. PCE September: @infinityhedge
*US SEPT. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US SEPT. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.7% Y/Y, EST. +2.6%
*US SEPT. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US SEPT. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.1% Y/Y; EST. +2.1%
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 216,000 IN OCT. 26 WEEK; EST. 230K
*US CONTINUING CLAIMS 1.862M IN OCT. 19 WEEK; EST. 1.885M
URGENT: Blockaid systems have detected a potential supply chain attack targeting dApps that use Lottie Player.
A new version of this npm packaged was deployed a couple of minutes ago, with multiple legitimate dApps now issuing malicious transactions: link
DO NOT CONNECT YOUR WALLETS TO POP-UPS COMING ON WEBSITES
COINBASE 3Q REV. $1.21B, EST. $1.25B: BBG
*Coinbase Announced $1B Share Buyback
One-Third of Polymarket's Presidential Market Volume Linked to Wash Trading: Chaos Labs via Fortune
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Blackrock Bitcoin ETF $IBIT traded $3.3B today, biggest number in 6 Months, which is a bit odd because BTC was up 4% (typically ETF volume spikes in a downturn/crisis). Occasionally tho volume can spike if there a FOMO-ing frenzy (a la $ARKK in 2020). "Given the surge in price past few days, my guess is this is latter, which means look for (more) big inflows this week": Senior ETF Analyst, Eric Balchunas
Added comment: If this is a FOMO Frenzy we'll see it show up in the flows next few nights.. if not it means its due to HF arb trading or something like that
ELON MUSK'S XAI IN TALKS TO RAISE FUNDING AT $40B VALUATION
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ISRAEL'S NETANYAHU TO HOLD DISCUSSION WITH MINISTERS REGARDING DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION TO END WAR IN LEBANON
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