infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 21:03

*POWELL: MOST RECENT DATA SUGGEST RESERVES ARE STILL ABUNDANT

*FED'S POWELL: WE INTEND TO REDUCE THE BALANCE SHEET SIZE

Powell gives an update on balance sheet policy that suggests no imminent changes:

*Reserves are still abundant.
*We're closely monitoring conditions.
*I don't have anything to say about particular dates.

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:45

*POWELL: WE DO EXPECT TO SEE FURTHER PROGRESS ON INFLATION

*POWELL: RIGHT NOW WE FEEL LIKE WE'RE IN A VERY GOOD PLACE

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:41

*POWELL: SENTENCE ON INFLATION NOT MEANT TO SEND SIGNAL

Powell says removal of "inflation" line is just clean up to shorten sentence, not determination that inflation is rising again

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:34

*POWELL: WE DON'T NEED TO BE IN HURRY TO ADJUST POLICY STANCE

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:03

*TRADERS PRICE IN LESS FED EASING THIS YEAR AFTER FOMC STATEMENT

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:00

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 18:10

Anthropic CEO on DeepSeek: LINK

*DeepSeek produced a model close to the performance of US models 7-10 months older, for a good deal less cost (but not anywhere near the ratios people have suggested.

*DeepSeek-V3 is not a unique breakthrough or something that fundamentally changes the economics of LLM’s; it’s an expected point on an ongoing cost reduction curve. What’s different this time is that the company that was first to demonstrate the expected cost reductions was Chinese. US companies will soon follow suit — and they won’t do this by copying DeepSeek, but because they too are achieving the usual trend in cost reduction.

*It's been reported DeepSeek actually had 50k Hopper generation chips6, which I'd guess is within a factor ~2-3x of what the major US AI companies have. Those 50k Hopper chips cost on the order of ~$1B. Thus, DeepSeek's total spend as a company (as distinct from spend to train an individual model) is not vastly different from US AI labs.

*R1, which is the model that was released last week and which triggered an explosion of public attention (including a ~17% decrease in Nvidia's stock price), is much less interesting from an innovation or engineering perspective than V3.

*Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027. (AGI prediction?👀)

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 15:45

Cardano Roadmap for 2025: Link

*Cardano plans transition to 'full decentralized governance' after Wednesday's Plomin hard fork: LINK

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 14:32

TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) TO EXPAND INTO FINANCIAL SERVICES WITH CHARLES SCHWAB

TRUMP MEDIA GROUP TO INVEST $250M INTO SMAS, ETFS, CRYPTO

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 12:13

🚨⚠️ Apple CPUs hit by 2 new vulnerabilities: SLAP & FLOP

*Apple chips can be hacked to leak credit card info, inbox content from Gmail, Proton Mail, and sensitive login-protected data from target webpages.

*Attacks executed remotely through a web browser using a malicious webpage containing JavaScript or WebAssembly code. A victim would just need to visit a malicious website for the secrets to leak, bypassing browser sandboxing, ASLR, and traditional memory protections.

*Apple Devices affected: All devices dating back as far as 2021. Older devices with M1 or earlier chips not impacted by these particular vulnerabilities. @infinityhedge

*Avoid untrusted websites, disable JavaScript when not needed. Use Browser extensions that block scripts like uBlock Origin.

*Apple stated it plans to address the issues. But said "Based on our analysis, we do not believe this issue poses an immediate risk to our users."

*Again for the 1000th time: IF YOU HOLD CRYPTO, DO NOT VISIT UNKNOWN WEBSITES

infinityhedge

28 Jan 2025 16:43

NVIDIA SHORT SELLERS RAKE IN $6.7 BILLION IN PROFIT AFTER STOCK'S NEAR 17% DROP ON MONDAY IN RECORD SINGLE-DAY GAIN: ORTEX DATA

infinityhedge

28 Jan 2025 11:03

RETAIL INVESTORS BOUGHT RECORD $562M NVIDIA STOCK DURING MONDAY'S DEEPSEEK-LED ROUT: VANDA RESEARCH

infinityhedge

27 Jan 2025 20:27

Nvidia statement on DeepSeek:

"DeepSeek is an excellent AI advancement and a perfect example of Test Time Scaling. DeepSeek’s work illustrates how new models can be created using that technique, leveraging widely-available models and compute that is fully export control compliant. Inference requires significant numbers of NVIDIA GPUs and high-performance networking. We now have three scaling laws: pre-training and post-training, which continue, and new test-time scaling"

*Nvidia’s statement indicates that it believes that the Chinese company didn’t violate US restrictions that limit access to advanced US chips in the creation of its technology. Most of Nvidia’s best products can’t be sold to Chinese companies without licenses from Washington — permits that are not typically granted.

infinityhedge

27 Jan 2025 17:10

DEEPSEEK: DUE TO LARGE-SCALE MALICIOUS ATTACKS ON DEEPSEEK'S SERVICES, REGISTRATION IS TEMPORARILY LIMITED TO +86 PHONE NUMBERS. EXISTING USERS CAN LOG IN AS USUAL.

infinityhedge

27 Jan 2025 16:12

*DEEPSEEK AI BUZZ WIPES OUT $1TRILLION FROM US TECH STOCKS

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:58

*POWELL: I WOULD SAY WE'RE MEANINGFULLY ABOVE NEUTRAL RATE

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:43

*POWELL: FED VERY MUCH WAITING TO SEE WHAT POLICIES ARE ENACTED

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:37

*POWELL: DON'T HAVE COMMENT ON WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID

*POWELL: I'VE HAD NO CONTACT WITH THE PRESIDENT

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:07

*TRADERS EXPECT THE FED TO WAIT UNTIL JUNE TO CUT RATES, BASED ON SHORT-TERM INTEREST-RATE FUTURES.

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 20:01

*FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO INFLATION MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 19:03

TRUMP OFFICIALS DISCUSS TIGHTENING CURBS ON NVIDIA CHINA SALES

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 16:57

LUTNICK: TETHER DID NO BUSINESS WITH ANYONE WHO WASN’T KYC-APPROPRIATE

LUTNICK: US DOLLAR STABLECOINS SHOULD BE AUDITED

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 15:03

ROBINHOOD HAS "BEGUN ROLLING OUT" FUTURES TRADING INCLUDING BTC, FX AND STOCKS

infinityhedge

29 Jan 2025 14:19

Banks expect Fed will take longer than they previously anticipated to end QT.

*Powell last referenced QT at the Nov. press conference when he compared decisions about slowing the asset runoff to deciding to pause rate cuts. With the Fed widely expected to keep rates on hold Wednesday, that’s heightened focus on any comments on its QT outlook.

Coming Today:
*Fed Rate Decision: no change in rates

*Chair Powell Speaks: market will be watching powell how he responds to questions related to "risks of tariffs/inflation", "trump wants lower rates/FED independence", "restrictiveness of rates/guidance about future rate cuts", "path of QT"...

Earnings Estimates:
*META: EPS: $6.74, Rev. $47B
*MSFT: EPS: $3.12, Rev. $68.8B
*TSLA: EPS: $0.77, Rev. $27.1B

*Market will be looking at mark Zuckerberg's & others response to Deepseek and Capex commitments

infinityhedge

28 Jan 2025 22:13

BITWISE FILES S-1 FOR DOGECOIN ETF

infinityhedge

28 Jan 2025 14:38

FRENCH INVESTIGATORS HAVE OPENED JUDICIAL PROBE INTO MONEY LAUNDERING, TAX FRAUD, DRUG TRAFFICKING, OTHER CHARGES AGAINST CRYPO PLATFORM BINANCE: RTRS

infinityhedge

27 Jan 2025 22:09

*NVIDIA HAS LOST $590 BILLION IN MARKET VALUE, THE LARGEST SINGLE-DAY DECLINE IN MARKET HISTORY

infinityhedge

27 Jan 2025 18:14

DEEPSEEK DROPPED NEW JANUS 7B MODEL, CAPABLE OF GENERATING IMAGES: LINK

infinityhedge

27 Jan 2025 16:40

DEEPSEEK: CURRENTLY, ONLY REGISTRATION WITH A MAINLAND CHINA MOBILE PHONE NUMBER IS SUPPORTED.

*DEEPSEEK: TO ENSURE CONTINUED SERVICE, REGISTRATION IS TEMPORARILY LIMITED TO +86 PHONE NUMBERS.

infinityhedge

27 Jan 2025 15:31

*S&P 500 OPENS DOWN 2.1%, NASDAQ DECLINES 3.5%

*NVIDIA SHARES SINK 13% IN BIGGEST DROP SINCE 2020