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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Clark Square Capital
It's that time again https://t.co/jJMMGesbEM
I am ready to get hurt again https://t.co/VH8CONOgix
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memenodes
Ok, We can't kill Bitcoin, but what if there is no electricity?
me: https://t.co/jbrReXJEcU
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memenodes
When I say I’m going to rest and recharge all day this is what I meant https://t.co/UQWAqBSVOc
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memenodes
“Sorry, i got plans this weekend”
my plans: https://t.co/gyduqaF737
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EndGame Macro
When Workers Stop Quitting, the Clock Starts Ticking
The quits rate is really just a window into how secure people feel. Workers don’t quit when they’re nervous they quit when they’re confident they can land something better without much risk. When quits fall like this, it’s not a sign of comfort. It’s a sign people are choosing caution over mobility. That shift almost always shows up before the labor market weakens in more obvious ways.
That’s why this matters even if layoffs aren’t exploding yet. Companies rarely start with mass firings. First they slow hiring. Then workers stop quitting. Only later, when pressure builds, do layoffs follow.
What History Tends To Do Next
The part people forget is the timing. In 2008, quits fell to roughly these levels while was sitting around the 5% range. Then the turn came quickly. Within about six to nine months, unemployment accelerated sharply, eventually pushing past 10%. Quits didn’t fall because unemployment was already surging, they fell first, as workers sensed risk and stayed put. The unemployment spike was the lagged response, and it wasn’t gradual once it started.
That pattern shows up elsewhere too. Quits soften quietly, unemployment drifts at first, then rises much faster than people expect once firms move from caution to cuts.
What It’s Saying Now
Right now, this looks less like a collapse and more like a loss of confidence. Hiring is cooling, workers are staying put, and stress is creeping in where it usually does first in the consumer facing sectors. Pair that with rising delinquencies and tighter financial conditions, and the labor market looks more fragile than the headline numbers imply.
My Read
The labor market isn’t falling off a cliff yet, but it’s clearly losing altitude. And history says once quits fall and stay down, unemployment doesn’t stay flat forever, it just takes a little time for the math to catch up.
Jolts Quits. Leading indicator
At levels seen in recessions.
Yes the Labor market is weakening https://t.co/YXuFW5xHoM
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EndGame Macro
When Banks Choose Certainty Over Comfort
The discount window is the Fed’s backstop for banks when funding gets awkward. If a bank needs cash and doesn’t like what it’s seeing in private markets, it can borrow directly from the Fed against good collateral. That’s the point…keep a temporary funding issue from turning into forced selling or something worse. It’s not meant to be a go to source of funding, and banks generally avoid it unless they have a reason to value certainty over optics or cost.
What’s different right now
This chart isn’t about a sudden crisis. It’s about a higher baseline of stress. Usage stepping up and staying elevated tells you private funding is less forgiving than it was earlier in the year. When markets are smooth, banks fund each other easily and cheaply. When volatility rises, deposits get more competitive, or counterparties get cautious, banks start preferring guaranteed liquidity even if it’s a little more expensive.
My View
Banks don’t tap the discount window because they’re bullish. They tap it because the system is getting tighter in subtle ways. Rate volatility, unrealized losses, balance sheet constraints, and year end pressures all push behavior in the same direction: don’t sell assets at bad prices, don’t rely on fragile funding, lock in certainty. This isn’t a red alert panic signal, but it is a sign that the plumbing is under more strain than the headlines suggest. Liquidity is still there but it’s becoming more selective, and that’s usually how stress shows up before anyone wants to call it a problem.
New high in discount window usage for 2025
Highest since April '24 https://t.co/heOsRavigS
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EndGame Macro
If someone wants to label this a Hassett premium, that’s fine but the point is more basic than that. The long end is charging a toll. It’s charging for deficits and supply, for inflation uncertainty that hasn’t fully cleared, for political and policy noise, and for the fact that the buyer base is more price sensitive than it used to be. That’s what term premium looks like in real life with trust, volatility, and supply, all expressed in basis points.
And that’s the key distinction. This move isn’t about rate expectations doing the heavy lifting. If it were, you’d see the long end following the front end more cleanly. Instead, the message is that the Fed can ease short rates, but long term money still demands compensation. That’s how you end up in the uncomfortable regime where cuts happen, spreads widen, and financial conditions don’t actually loosen where they matter most.
My colleague, and the world's best bond strategist (in my humble view), Ryan Swift argues that the 10-year is struggling with the "Hassett premium." The bond market may require a sacrifice at the altar of CB independence... even if I think that's kind of unfair to Hassett. https://t.co/2nhbjMHl0N
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EndGame Macro
Ripple’s Path From Pushback to Plumbing
A conditional trust bank charter is permission to build, not a free pass to operate. It means Ripple is being judged as infrastructure, not as a speculative crypto company. The focus isn’t deposits or lending; it’s custody, control of reserves, and compliance. Ripple is being allowed to handle sensitive plumbing, but only under tight supervision and with clear guardrails.
That distinction matters. A national trust bank is boring by design. And boring is exactly what institutions want. This is about making RLUSD legible to regulators and usable by banks, not about hype. The conditional part is the system keeping leverage, Ripple still has to prove it can meet operational, risk, and governance standards before anything goes fully live.
From Resistance To Absorption
The bigger arc here is familiar if you’ve watched how the U.S. system deals with disruption. First comes resistance, then containment, then absorption. The SEC lawsuit looked existential at the time, but in hindsight it forced Ripple to clean up its legal edges and commit fully to building inside the system rather than around it. While most of crypto was arguing about price, Ripple was quietly assembling the boring pieces institutions actually need including custody, risk management, prime brokerage, stablecoin infrastructure.
That’s why this moment matters. Ripple isn’t positioning itself as a bank killer. It’s positioning itself as connective tissue and the rails banks can use to move value faster across fiat, stablecoins, and tokenized assets without rewriting the rules every time. XRP sits in the middle as the bridge asset, not the headline. When you zoom out, this doesn’t look like chaos or a sudden win. It looked choreographed with years of friction followed by a controlled entry into the system. That’s how financial plumbing gets built…slowly, quietly, and under supervision.
HUGE news! @Ripple just received conditional approval from the @USOCC to charter Ripple National Trust Bank. This is a massive step forward - first for $RLUSD, setting the highest standard for stablecoin compliance with both federal (OCC) & state (NYDFS) oversight.
To the banking lobbyists – your anti-competitive tactics are transparent. You’ve complained that crypto isn’t playing by the same rules, but here’s the crypto industry – directly under the OCC's supervision and standards – prioritizing compliance, trust and innovation to the benefit of consumers. What are you so afraid of?
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The Few Bets That Matter
I just published my review of $LULU quarter, a name I flagged as a potential good position a few days ago for subscribers.
There’s a lot of optimism in this report and I broke down exactly what I’m thinking about the stock from here.
Link’s in the bio. https://t.co/SNd5CkgDwl
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EndGame Macro
🇯🇵 Japan’s Quiet Move With Loud Global Consequences
Japan raising rates is a global funding headline. For years, the yen has been the cheapest place on earth to borrow. That’s how a huge amount of global risk taking was financed…borrow yen, buy higher yielding assets elsewhere. As long as markets were calm and yield gaps stayed wide, being short yen paid well and felt safe.
That’s why the yen kept weakening. Not because Japan was collapsing, but because the world was rewarding leverage.
When Japan nudges rates higher and hints it may stop protecting its bond market as aggressively, that cheap funding starts to disappear enough to change behavior.
And the timing couldn’t be worse. If the global economy is already slowing…Japan, the U.S., the U.K., all at once then investors aren’t looking to add risk. They’re looking for exits at the same time.
The yen is the transmission channel
The real danger is what happens if the yen stops falling and starts rising in a global downturn.
Carry trades don’t unwind politely. They unwind when FX moves against them. Once the yen strengthens, funding costs jump, losses pile up, and positions get cut. That selling pushes the yen higher, forcing more selling. It’s a feedback loop.
Up to now, the lack of sustained stress let this trade persist. In a synchronized recession, volatility rises everywhere at once. That’s when the yen flips from funding currency to pressure valve.
Japan is also one of the world’s largest exporters of capital. If domestic yields become more attractive and FX risk feels less one sided, Japanese institutions don’t need to reach as far abroad, exactly when everyone else is trying to derisk too.
What this does to U.S. and U.K. bonds
People assume recession means yields fall. Often true…until the plumbing gets stressed.
If Japan normalizes while the U.S. and U.K. slide into recession, you can get weaker growth expectations but less reliable foreign buying of long dated bonds. That’s how term premium creeps back in even as growth fades.
In a more disorderly scenario, it’s worse. When leverage comes off quickly across regions, markets sell what’s liquid, not what’s risky. Treasuries and Gilts are liquid and they’re collateral. In a scramble for cash, even safe bonds can sell off temporarily because they’re used to meet margin calls elsewhere.
That’s how you get recession and stubbornly high long end yields for a time.
The trade and tariff backdrop makes this harder
Japan can’t lean on exports the way it used to. Tariffs, weaker global demand, and China’s competitiveness are already pressuring its export model. That pressure helped weaken the yen during the carry phase but it also leaves Japan more exposed if conditions tighten suddenly.
In a global recession, export weakness feeds directly into profits and confidence. A stronger yen in that environment tightens real conditions fast.
That’s why Japan’s policy path is fragile. Hiking supports the currency, but tightens into a synchronized slowdown. That tension is what turns Japan into a transmission hub.
What to watch for and the real breakpoints
This doesn’t break gradually. It breaks when things move too fast.
A sharp yen rally matters more than levels. JGB volatility matters more than yields. FX hedging stress matters more than central bank words. And if U.S. or U.K. bond volatility feeds on itself during recession, policymakers get dragged back in whether they want to or not.
The big risk people are missing
Japan’s hike is about tightening the world’s funding system at the worst possible moment.
The underappreciated risk is a yen led deleveraging wave during a synchronized recession forcing selling of U.S. Treasuries and U.K. Gilts for collateral reasons, pushing yields higher right when recession logic says they should fall.
That’s how market stress comes first and policy response second.
That’s the setup Japan is quietly reintroducing.
“The Bank of Japan is moving[...]
EndGame Macro
Oracle’s Future Is Big But The Bill Is Bigger
Cloud revenue is growing fast, up to about $8B this quarter from $6B a year ago, while traditional software is flat to down. Oracle is no longer just selling licenses; it’s increasingly running workloads.
The backlog is the headline number for a reason. RPO jumped to $523B, up from under $100B a year ago, driven by a handful of very large cloud contracts. These are signed commitments. The catch is timing, only about 10% converts to revenue in the next 12 months. Most of it lives years out.
Operating profitability is still solid. Core margins aren’t distressed, and the business is not falling apart operationally.
What looks strong but is partly cosmetic
Net income almost doubled, but that’s not because the business suddenly became far more profitable. A large portion came from non operating investment gains, not customers or pricing power.
The tax rate also flatters the quarter. Oracle explicitly tells you that once you strip out one offs, the real tax rate is closer to 21%. In other words…don’t extrapolate this quarter’s GAAP earnings too far.
Cash on hand went up, but mostly because Oracle issued debt and sold an investment, not because free cash flow suddenly surged. This wasn’t a cash harvesting quarter, it was a funding quarter.
Where the pressure is building
The strain isn’t on the revenue line. It’s on the cost of becoming a cloud infrastructure company at speed.
Cloud costs are rising fast. Data center capacity is expensive, and Oracle says directly that these costs will continue climbing as it expands footprint and geography. Segment margins are compressing, and restructuring charges are showing up as the company tries to keep that compression contained.
This is the classic transition risk where revenue can look fine for a while even as cash economics worsen, because spending happens up front and revenue arrives later.
Balance sheet and cash flow reality
Oracle is clearly in build mode.
Property, plant, and equipment jumped sharply in just 6 months. Total assets ballooned. Debt is higher, and recent issuance locked in long dated fixed coupons in the mid 4% to low 6% range, which tells you financing is no longer cheap.
The most important disclosure is off the balance sheet where Oracle has $248B in uncommitted future data center lease obligations, starting in FY26–FY28, with 15–19 year terms. These don’t fully show up yet, but they are real future costs.
Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is deeply negative because capex is running far ahead of cash generation. Some of that spend hasn’t even hit cash yet and is sitting in unpaid capex.
Liquidity looks better, but it’s been engineered to support the buildout, not because the business is throwing off excess cash.
Why the stock is acting this way
The market isn’t confused about growth. It’s uneasy about timing and execution.
Oracle is being repriced like an infrastructure builder, not a pure software name. When long term rates are high and credit is less forgiving, investors get less patient with “we’ll earn it later” stories especially when the company has already committed to massive fixed costs.
That’s why even rumors about delays matter. It’s not about whether Oracle is lying. It’s about the fact that small timing slips matter a lot when spending is front loaded and margins are under pressure.
My Read
Oracle today is a company with real cloud demand and a massive long term opportunity, but also very real near term financial strain from building that future all at once.
Earnings optics look good, but cash flow tells a harder story. The balance sheet can handle it for now but the margin for execution error is thinner than the stock price was implying.
The market isn’t rejecting the growth story. It’s deciding how much it trusts Oracle to deliver it on time, at scale, and without letting cash flow and leverage become the story instead.
Oracle Shares Rebou[...]
EndGame Macro
Watch this….
Now roll the tape forward into 2026 and assume unemployment keeps inching higher. That alone starts to matter. The quality of borrowers banks want to lend to keeps slipping, credit standards tighten, and lending gets more selective even if rates are coming down.
Now think about what that does to people’s heads. Even folks making good money start feeling uneasy about job security. If John sees a couple of coworkers get laid off, is he really going to sign up for a 30 year mortgage knowing he could be next? Probably not. Then look at retirees. If home prices are sliding and they’re sitting on a lot of equity, and the stock market corrects at the same time, the instinct shifts to protecting capital like downsizing, selling, getting liquid. And let’s be honest when the 10 year yield and mortgage rates are falling, that’s not a sign housing is fixed. It’s the bond market telling you growth is slowing and risk is rising. That’s how you can end up with home prices falling even as rates drop. It’s not about affordability. It’s about psychology. @patrickbetdavid @m3_melody @DiMartinoBooth
“Pricing About To Go DOWN" - Housing Prices COLLAPSE As Delistings SKYROCKET Nationwide https://t.co/p5Sr0E6qMK
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memenodes
Depression leaving my body as soon as crypto starts pumping https://t.co/N7pahE3B8d
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: Wealthfront is going public this week.
Ticker: $WLTH
Valuation: ~$2B
Funded Clients: 1.3M
Platform Assets: $88B
📊 How They Make Money: ~75% of revenue comes from cash management (not advisory fees). This makes the model highly sensitive to interest rates.
Would you buy this over $HOOD or $SOFI?
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The Few Bets That Matter
$ORCL pushed back completion of one of its datacenters for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 because of labor & material shortages.
And management confirmed this delay doesn’t affect their contractual commitments.
The market is reading this new as: “OpenAI is defaulting.”
You need a strong stomach and strong conviction in the markets lately.
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Fiscal.ai
RT @patientinvestt: Amazon’s operating margin has exploded from 0.2% to 11%, largely driven by their robotics tech & the market still isn’t pricing it in!
2026 will likely be $AMZN's year! https://t.co/17hBkS6LCa
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memenodes
me in 2006:
https://t.co/qvk3bmhuux
TIME’s Person of the Year through the years:
2025: The Architects of AI
2024: Donald Trump
2023: Taylor Swift
2022: Volodymyr Zelensky & The Spirit of Ukraine
2021: Elon Musk
2020: Joe Biden & Kamala Harris
2019: Greta Thunberg
2018: The Guardians & The War on Truth
2017: The Silence Breakers (Me Too)
2016: Donald Trump
2015: Angela Merkel
2014: Ebola Fighters
2013: Pope Francis
2012: Barack Obama
2011: The Protester
2010: Mark Zuckerberg
2009: Ben Bernanke
2008: Barack Obama
2007: Vladimir Putin
2006: You
2005: The Good Samaritans
2004: George W. Bush
2003: The American Soldier
2002: The Whistleblowers
2001: Rudy Giuliani
2000: George W. Bush
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memenodes
crypto traders logging in daily just to stare at unrealized losses, mentally calculating how rich they’d be if they had sold the top https://t.co/RV9Zpp3Hs6
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EndGame Macro
I don’t think any of this starts where we usually point. It doesn’t start with fentanyl, or smartphones, or even COVID. Those things made it worse, no question. But they didn’t create the hole. They poured gasoline into something that had already been smoldering for a long time.
If you go back to the late 90s, a lot shifts at once. That’s when OxyContin gets pushed hard into the medical system. Pain stops being something you endure or manage and becomes something that should be eliminated completely. Doctors are told addiction risk is low. Patients are told relief is basically guaranteed. And everyone trusts the system because why wouldn’t they? It’s wrapped in credentials and white coats. When that story falls apart, the damage doesn’t unwind. It just mutates.
At the same time, work is changing in ways that don’t show up cleanly in charts. Manufacturing keeps shrinking. Unions lose leverage. Jobs get more flexible, which mostly means less secure. A lot of people are working just as hard, sometimes harder, but feeling more disposable. And when work stops anchoring people, the rest of life starts to wobble too.
Then the prescriptions dry up in the late 2000s. That’s supposed to fix things. Instead it just pushes people to heroin. Same pain, fewer rules. And then fentanyl hits in the early 2010s and rewrites the entire risk equation. At that point, it’s not about recklessness. It’s about the fact that one mistake can be fatal. There’s no buffer anymore.
Now layer in the economic side of this. Since the late 90s, most of the gains flow to people who already own assets. Stocks, housing, anything financial. If you’re in, you’re fine. If you’re not, you’re chasing a moving target. The middle gets squeezed. The bottom barely moves. That stress doesn’t stay in spreadsheets. It shows up in drinking, in depression, in people quietly checking out.
You see it in alcohol deaths almost doubling. You see it in suicide rates rising, especially among middle aged men and younger women. You see it in how much time people spend alone now compared to twenty years ago. Fewer places to belong. More screens. Less face to face life. It’s not that people forgot how to connect. It’s that the scaffolding that made connection normal just eroded.
COVID ripped the cover off. Isolation got sharper. Coping mechanisms broke. Deaths spiked. And even now, as some numbers improve, they’re settling at levels that would’ve been unthinkable a generation ago. That tells you something didn’t heal. It just reset lower.
This feels like decades of decisions that optimized for efficiency and profitability and quietly removed resilience. Institutions learned how to protect balance sheets and reputations, not people. When things broke, whether it was health, money, or work, people were left to handle it on their own. Most did for a long time. And then, at some point, they couldn’t anymore.
What a chart.
h/t @LukeGromen https://t.co/35yn90gWnl
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EndGame Macro
When Credit Spreads Whisper Confidence And Risk Gets Loud
Credit spreads are just the market’s risk surcharge. It’s the extra yield investors demand to lend to companies instead of the government. When spreads are tight, investors feel comfortable, defaults feel far away, and liquidity feels reliable. Nobody thinks they’re being paid much for risk and they’re fine with that.
That’s what makes this moment interesting. Spreads this tight don’t mean risk is gone. They mean people believe it’s contained.
Why this isn’t as comforting as it looks
What you’re really seeing here is money crowding into the safest looking parts of credit. Big investment grade issuers still have a bid because pensions, insurers, ETFs, and foreign buyers want yield without touching obvious trouble. Meanwhile, a lot of the stress is hiding elsewhere like in private credit, commercial real estate, smaller balance sheets, and borrowers that don’t trade every day. Those pressures don’t show up neatly in an IG spread chart.
My Read
Spreads this tight say more about confidence in policy backstops than confidence in the economy. Investors are leaning on the idea that the system stays orderly, that refinancing works, and that policymakers step in if things wobble. That can hold for a while. But when spreads are already compressed, there’s very little upside left and a lot of downside if growth slows more than expected, downgrades pick up, or funding costs stay high because long term rates refuse to fall. This is a warning that the market is pricing a very smooth outcome, and smooth outcomes are fragile by definition.
U.S. Credit Spreads fall to lowest level since 1998 🤯👀 https://t.co/rCc8K2FHeY
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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/XqxVI7NXWN
BREAKING: President Trump says land strikes in Venezuela are "starting." https://t.co/55nXPXavPU
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EndGame Macro
Democratizing Access Or Socializing Exit Risk?
If this gets approved, the real risk is that a massive, steady pool of retirement money becomes a new, permanent buyer for assets that usually rely on institutions. 401K flows are predictable and sticky. Once alternatives are allowed in the wrapper, they don’t show up as flashy picks they get folded quietly into target date funds, managed portfolios, and diversification sleeves. That’s how these things always enter the system…calmly, professionally, and with just enough structure to pass oversight.
On its own, that’s not inherently bad. But it matters when this happens. If the economy were accelerating and liquidity were abundant, it would look like natural evolution. Doing it as growth is slowing and credit stress is rising changes the character of the move.
Where the risk really sits
The risk is liquidity and timing. Alternatives don’t reprice smoothly. They look stable until they don’t, because prices are model based and exits are limited. Retirement accounts feel liquid; private assets aren’t. That mismatch only becomes obvious when people want their money at the same time.
Layer on fees, complexity, and discretion, and you get a system where returns can look fine on paper long after the underlying reality has shifted. That’s manageable for pensions and endowments who know what they’re holding. It’s a different story for households who assume their retirement savings behave like public markets.
The uncomfortable incentive question
This wouldn’t be used as some cartoonish dump on retail moment. But incentives matter. When private markets tighten, everyone wants new capital and orderly exits. Opening the 401K channel creates a slow, reliable bid and exactly the kind that helps absorb aging assets, smooth valuations, and extend cycles. That’s not malicious; it’s how capital markets work.
The danger is that households end up funding assets late in the cycle, when returns are harder and risks are more asymmetric. Not because anyone lied, but because distribution widened at the wrong moment.
My View
This is about where risk lands when the cycle turns. Expanding access to alternatives during economic deterioration doesn’t just spread opportunity, it spreads fragility. The biggest threat isn’t the first loss. It’s the plumbing stress that shows up later, when liquidity, pricing, and expectations stop lining up.
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The Few Bets That Matter
I finally sold out off $PYPL today.
The company has potential but the execution just hasn’t kept up. What was supposed to be a fast-pace rollout turned into a constant “in the next few quarters”.
The new checkout experience was built over a year ago and is rolled out to 20% of clients. No real updates on PayPal World, and management keeps pointing to weak consumers, delays and 2026 as another “investment year.”
There are positives, sure. Branded is growing and Braintree has been purged, the agentic payment service is out and this could drive engagement but those were only secondary bull cases to my opinion.
There are better names with fewer headaches and more upside elsewhere. Cheap is cheap for a reason.
And I'd sign in a heartbeat if my post could sign the bottom, for the sanity of those who still hold and the peace of mind for those who come after.
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to raise its policy rate at the Dec. 18-19 monetary policy meeting with a 25-basis-point increase from 0.5% to 0.75% emerging as the leading option, Nikkei has learned.” 👇🏼 https://t.co/qWtkjhfk5s - Kalani o Māui tweet
Читать полностью…
nd After Denying 'Delays' https://t.co/V9H3ghr5CB - zerohedge tweet
Читать полностью…
Quiver Quantitative
Representative Dan Goldman has proposed a bill that would put a 20% tax on loans secured by capital assets for high-income individuals.
It's called the ROBINHOOD Act. https://t.co/pa3yUaCC0F
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memenodes
When your trading account is blown, at least stress is gone
Apart from breakup, what else can make a man be like this? https://t.co/22DS3dadq7
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EndGame Macro
The 10 Year Isn’t Buying the Fed’s Easing Story
The Fed is easing at the front end, and you can see that in short term rates. But the 10 year isn’t playing along. It’s staying high and even pulling away from Fed Funds which is why this spread is as wide as it’s been in years. That’s the bond market quietly reminding everyone who sets the price of long term money.
The Fed can cut, but it can’t force investors to lend long on the cheap.
Why the 10 Year Is Pushing Back
Part of this is straightforward. The economy is cooling. Layoffs are creeping up, hiring is less confident, and housing is rolling over first in the places that always turn early. That’s enough for the Fed to start cutting.
But the 10 year is focused on a different problem. There’s a lot of debt that needs to be refinanced over the next couple of years. Treasury supply is heavy, deficits aren’t going away, and the global backdrop is noisier with more tariffs, more geopolitics, more uncertainty. Even if inflation ends up cooling, the fear of inflation sticks around longer than the reality.
So investors are basically saying “Cut if you want but if I’m lending for ten years in this environment, I still want to be paid.” That’s term premium coming back.
What This Means And Where The Fed Gets Boxed In
This kind of widening doesn’t mean the economy is about to fall apart tomorrow. But it does mean relief doesn’t travel very far. Credit cards might get a little cheaper, but mortgages and long term financing don’t magically follow if the 10 year stays elevated.
Historically, this shows up late in the cycle. Growth is slowing, stress is building, and policy is reacting rather than leading. Cuts work, just unevenly.
If unemployment keeps rising and the economy keeps softening, the 10 year will eventually come down on its own as growth fears take over. If it doesn’t, the Fed faces a tougher choice that they either accept tighter financial conditions, or step in more directly to compress long term rates. That’s where talk of QE starts to matter and not because inflation is low, but because the transmission from policy to the real economy is breaking down.
The risk isn’t that rate cuts fail. It’s that they don’t reach the places that matter until the slowdown has already done some damage.
10yr yield hits the highest spread over Fed Funds in 3yrs
The number of people on Fox Business, CNBC, CNN, etc that claim FFR cuts will benefit average Americans thru lower CC rates, mortgage rates, etc is astounding
The 10yr is where those are priced & the spread is WIDENING https://t.co/Bb24XqzUzw
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Clark Square Capital
AppInvestor put together a great little dashboard to track $GRVY. Awesome stuff.
@ClarkSquareCap No better way to respond to this but by giving you the link to the $GRVY dashboard I've just setup / refreshed for Gravity ;) (Works better on desktop than mobile because using a shit embed tool for now)
Mobile data, news and financial data
https://t.co/GrJg4zR0wt
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Weed stocks are soaring on reports that the White House may reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug.
$MSOS is up 35%.
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