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Independent researcher/writer based in Hong Kong since 1997. Reformed academic. My long-form, analytical articles are collected here https://laura-ruggeri.medium.com/ email: lauraru852@yandex.ru
Terror attack on Russia’s Consulate General in Marseille.
According to preliminary information, there have been no casualties. Russian Foreign Ministry's response
- The explosions at the Russian Consulate General in Marseille resemble a terrorist attack. Moscow demands a thorough investigation from Paris, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told TASS.
SVR’s alert
- On February 19, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported that Ukrainian authorities are considering the possibility of carrying out terror attacks against Russian diplomatic missions in Europe, particularly in Germany and the Baltic and Scandinavian countries.
- According to the agency, it is not excluded that the Ukrainians may choose Slovakia and Hungary for these purposes.
- The SVR believes that this will provide "additional advantage" to the Kiev regime because it will discredit those EU countries that have adopted a unique stance with regard to the Ukraine conflict. @LauraRuHK
Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski has stated that he does not believe it is possible to disconnect the Starlink satellite communication terminals in Ukraine because....Poland signed the contract and pays for them.▪️Warsaw bought and transferred nearly 20,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine and will continue to pay the subscription fees.
On 22 February, Reuters reported that US negotiators have been considering the possibility of disconnecting Ukraine from Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system if Ukraine does not agree to their terms on the mineral agreement.
@LauraRuHK
Like everyone, I read and discussed Kishore Mahbubani's latest article. I have quite a few reservations about his analysis and recommendations. First, he talks about Europe as a geopolitical actor but doesn't define it. Is he referring to the EU? To European states, including those outside the EU? Or to European states that are members of NATO? He probably means the latter, as he writes
"Europe should announce its willingness to quit NATO. A Europe that is forced to spend 5 percent on defense is a Europe that doesn’t need the United States."
"Eventually, Europe need not quit. But only a credible threat to leave would wake up Trump (and Vice President J.D. Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth) and force him to treat Europe with respect."
Europe should "work out a new grand strategic bargain with Russia, with each side accommodating the other’s core interests.[...] The Russians would likely be happy to work out a fair compromise with the EU. [...] Ukraine could gradually serve as a bridge between the EU and Russia rather than as a bone of contention. Brussels should consider itself fortunate that, in relative terms, Russia is a declining power, not a rising power."
🚨 Breaking 🚨
The private polling company, "Kiev institute of sociology" which Western media quotes as source of Zelenskys "57%" popularity, is owned and operated by a Zelensky ally and State employee (at the National Univeristy of Kiev) Volodymyr Paniotto
It's also indirectly funded by USAID, NED and Soros foundation
"The Kiev institute" counts German State media, @dwnews, Radio Free Europe, the OSCE and other EU and US Ngo funded media as "Clients"
The actual question asked of 2,000 Ukrainians living in a police state, bereft of elections, with citizens being g dragged off the streets by Zelenskys governemnt was
"Do you support President Zelensky"
The respondents were called personally on their mobile phones by the "institute"
The owner and President of the "Institute" Volodymyr Paniotto is a dedicated supporter of Zelensky and the Euro Maidan movement behind the illegal Coup in 2014, he regularly writes for publications like "Global Dialogue"
Guess who funds "Charity" Global Dialouge?
Klaus Schwab
National endowmwnt for Democracy (CIA)
And Soros' Open Democracy.
The "Independent" Kiev institute also supplies services to pro Zelensky media and radio, pro Zelensky personalities and channels
The entire "Institute" being quoted in Western media, some of whom directly fund them, is deeply ingrained into the Zelensky Government and his personally owned channels.
Thanks to @realTimaV for collaboration on this investigative piece.
Stay awake. Stay informed. Question everything. Follow me @irishmaninrussia
This is possibly the most entertaining article you will be reading today. Tarik has mastered the art of lampooning European vassals. https://swentr.site/news/612869-munich-us-eu-vance/
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Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko:
🔹The Russia-US negotiations in Riyadh are preliminary consultations that aim to outline basic positions of the parties;
🔹There is no evidence that a breakthrough is possible in Russia-EU relations;
🔹EU countries can help resolve the Ukraine conflict by stopping arms supplies to Kiev;
🔹If Russia's security interests are not taken into account, Moscow will take independent measures to ensure them;
🔹Russia categorically rejects the prospect of EU troops in Ukraine, in whatever role they may be there;
🔹Russia sees no indication of preparations for the withdrawal of US troops from the Baltic states. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov on the Russian-US talks in Riyadh:
🔹Hard work needs to be made before the meeting of Russian and US leaders;
🔹Russia and the US have agreed to promote bilateral relations, both Moscow and Washington are interested in this;
🔹Separate teams of Russian and US negotiators will start the contacts on Ukraine in due course;
🔹The representatives of Russia and the United States in Riyadh have outlined their principled approaches to Ukraine;
🔹Russian President Vladimir Putin will decide himself when the contacts with the US on Ukraine will begin;
🔹Putin will decide who will join a Russian negotiating team on Ukraine, the United States has not yet appointed its representatives;
🔹It is still difficult to say that positions of Russia and the United States are converging, but conversation about this have taken place in Riyadh
🔹Russia and the US have agreed to take each other's interests into account at the talks in Riyadh;
🔹Moscow and Washington will work to create conditions for a Putin-Trump meeting. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
💸Biggest losses suffered by US companies that left Russia
Russian negotiators have provided their US counterparts a chart detailing some $324 bln in losses suffered by US corporations that quit the Russian market.
🔍Biggest losers:
🔴$123 bln in IT and media
🔴$94 bln in the consumer goods sector
🔴$71 bln in finance
🔴$26 bln in industry
🔴$10 bln in energy
🔍Who lost what?
🔴Exxon suffered a $4 bln write down on its Russia-related businesses
🔴McDonald’s recorded a $1.4 bln non-cash write off in 2022 attributed to its Russia exit
🔴General Motors lost $657 mln
🔴Google’s Russian subsidiary declared bankruptcy in 2023 with debts totaling $587 mln. A Russian court has fined the company $2.5 decillion for restricting Russian media channels on YouTube
🔴Whirlpool recorded $400 mln in Russia losses
🔴Coca-Cola lost $195.4 mln
🔴Disney reported $195 mln in losses from “depreciation of intangible assets” in Russia in 2022
🔴IBM recorded $300 mln in losses in 2022, blaming Russia and inflation for 3,900 slashed jobs
🔴Starbucks suffered undisclosed losses after closing its 130 Russian coffee shops, accounting for nearly 1% of global sales
🔴Microsoft lost $126 mln
🔴Ford took a $122 mln hit
🔴Nvidia lost $100 mln
🔴Apple recorded $79.3 mln in losses
🔴Xerox faced $80 mln in losses in Q4 2023
🔴Adobe reported $75 mln from lost payments in Russia and Belarus
🔴Netflix cut off 700,000 Russian subscribers (about $55.1 mln in potential losses, although some Russians switched their accounts to other regions)
🔴John Deere halted production at a 100,000 sq. m facility it had pumped over $40 mln into from 2005-2022. Caterpillar, which left in 2024, saw Russia earnings fall from $64.5 mln in 2021 to $2.3 mln in 2023
🔴Visa and Mastercard recorded $35 and $30 mln in losses, respectively in 2022
🔴HP wrote off $23 mln
🔴Cisco went $20.3 mln into the red
🔴Oracle lost $13.7 mln
🔴Western Union reported a 2% hit to 2022 revenues due to loss of the Russian and Belarusian markets
👍 Boost us | Chat | Stickers |@geopolitics_live
Armin Papperger: There are no weapons stocks left in Europe and Ukraine. The CEO of Rheinmetall, Germany's largest arms producer, told the Financial Times “The Europeans and the Ukrainians have nothing in their depots,” referring to low stocks of arms.
▪️Rheinmetall, one of the beneficiaries of the war in Ukraine, saw its share price initially fall after Trump’s plan for peace talks was announced last week.
But European defence stocks, including Rheinmetall, have rallied since then as investors bet that European governments would have to massively increase military spending.▪️Papperger said that, following nationwide elections on Sunday, he expected Germany’s next government to rapidly relax strict debt rules to enable more defence spending, even though election frontrunner Friedrich Merz is officially committed to keeping them in place.
“I personally believe that will happen, and it will happen immediately,” he said. @LauraRuHK https://www.ft.com/content/49f9a7f7-f45c-4ecf-a500-fe1240a78091
The US has played a major role in the Ukraine conflict from the outset, and Russia sees Washington's involvement in its resolution as a potential opportunity, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at a press conference on the eve of Russia’s talks with US representatives to be held in Riyadh on February 18.
West's role in conflict's settlement
If European countries attempt to "bargain" for a ceasefire in order to rearm Ukraine, there is no sense in allowing them to participate in negotiations.
The West will not be able to "sit and wait under the 'nuclear umbrella'" and will have to answer for its unlawful actions and support for the Nazi regime in Ukraine. "One must take responsibility for one's actions, as the Bible says."
The US has been playing a leading role in the Ukrainian crisis since its very start and now "may contribute to the settlement."
Ukrainian military's atrocities
The Ukrainian army "acts even worse than Hitler's murderers." The world should "look at the atrocities they commit on the territories."
Idea of territorial concessions
The topic of territorial compromises to what is called Ukraine now were heard in the USA: "They have been debating territorial concessions indeed. <...> Our president [Vladimir Putin] is calling for this too."
Discussions about "compromises" on Ukraine resemble a "scientific debate," Lavrov said. "Do you wait for a mere idea about ceding some territories to appear at talks on resolving the conflict? How should they be ceded: with Russian people or without them? With rare-earth metals only?"
Kiev may use "territorial concessions" to carry out massacres.
Upcoming talks between Russia, US in Riyadh
Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Lavrov and Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov were on their way to the Saudi capital for talks with US officials on restoring Russian-US relations across the board, as well as preparations for possible talks on resolving the Ukraine conflict and for the countries' leaders' meeting. The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev, may also take part in negotiations.
According to the CNN news agency, the American delegation will be represented by US President Donald Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy for the Middle East Steve Whitkoff. (Source: TASS) @LauraRuHK
Before the start of an "emergency meeting" in Paris to discuss Europe's role in a potential ceasefire British PM Keir Starmer said he is ready to send troops to Ukraine. The meeting will be attended by Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark along with the presidents of the European Council, European Commission and the secretary general of NATO.▪️Make no mistake, this is no independent initiative. US has long intended to shift the burden of its proxy war onto its vassals. 5 days ago Pentagon's chief Pete Hegseth called on NATO allied countries to take the lead in providing for Ukraine's security as an alternative to granting Ukraine NATO membership. Hegseth said that any security guarantees for Ukraine "must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. They should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission, and they should not be covered under Article 5." ▪️Russia has repeatedly stated that the presence of Western troops in Ukraine, no matter under what pretext, is unacceptable.
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This article has been widely shared and quoted, including by those who believe that EUrope will defy the US and seek a closer relationship with China. One of the Chinese analysts mentioned in the article described the posture of the current US administration as "isolationist", i personally disagree with this assessment. Protectionism doesn't always go hand in hand with isolationism. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202502/1328481.shtml
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On February 15, at the initiative of the American side, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Building on the February 12 telephone conversation between the Presidents of Russia and the United States, the two foreign ministers agreed to maintain an open channel of communication to address longstanding issues in Russian-American relations. Their goal is to remove unilateral barriers inherited from the previous US administration that have hindered mutually beneficial trade, economic and investment cooperation. Both sides expressed a shared commitment to engaging on key international issues, including the situation in Ukraine, developments in Palestine and the broader Middle East, as well as other regional matters.
The conversation also covered ways to swiftly reverse the restrictions on Russian diplomatic missions in the United States, which were introduced by the Obama administration in 2016 and led to reciprocal measures. It was agreed that expert-level meetings will be organised in the near future to coordinate specific steps towards removing these obstacles to the functioning of diplomatic missions in Russia and the United States.
Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio reaffirmed their readiness to restore a respectful and constructive interstate dialogue in line with the approach set by the presidents. They agreed to maintain regular contact, including discussions on preparations for a potential high-level Russian-American summit.
Scholz calls for state of emergency in Germany
Outgoing Chancellor Scholz has urged the Bundestag to declare a state of emergency "in the wake of recent events", including Trump's comments on Ukraine.
This move could allow Germany to bypass debt restrictions and take out more loans.
"The Bundestag must make a decision as soon as possible, according to which the war in Ukraine and its serious consequences for the security of Germany and Europe will be regarded as an emergency situation in accordance with paragraph 2 of Article 115 of the Basic Law of the Federal Republic of Germany. This means that our support for Ukraine, which is now more important than ever, will no longer be carried out at the expense of other tasks that our state must fulfill in relation to its citizens,"
Senior officials from the US, Russia and Ukraine will hold a meeting in Saudi Arabia next week -
"Tomorrow we will meet in Munich, and next week a meeting in Saudi Arabia, not with me or President Putin, but with top officials. And Ukraine will also participate in this," US President Donald Trump said.
On Wednesday, Trump said he looked forward to meeting with his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia, without specifying specific dates.
Shortly before that, on Thursday, he also revealed that high-ranking representatives of Russia, United States and Ukraine will meet at the Munich Security Conference, which will be held from February 14 to 16.
Russia's position on the settlement of the conflict.
In June last year, Putin came up with proposals for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Russia will immediately cease fire and declare its readiness for negotiations if:
▪️Ukraine officially abandons its intentions to join NATO;
▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces withdraws from new Russian regions;
▪️Kiev authorities carry out demilitarization and denazification;
▪️Ukraine adopts a neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-free status.
▪️Vladmir Putin also mentioned the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. (Source: RIA Novosti) @LauraRuHK
Putin and Xi stressed that Russian-Chinese relations play a stabilizing role in world affairs, are not directed against others, and are strategic in nature. ▪️"Vladimir Putin informed Xi Jinping about the recent Russian-American contacts," the Kremlin said in a statement. "The Chinese side expressed support for the dialogue, as well as readiness to assist in the search for ways to peacefully resolve the Ukrainian conflict."
"China is pleased to see how Russia and relevant parties are making efforts to de-escalate the Ukrainian conflict," Xi said.
During their long telephone conversation, the two leaders had an in-depth exchange of views on the further development of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and China. Mutually beneficial cooperation in the fields of economy and trade, investment, culture, education and sports was also discussed. @LauraRuHK
FRIEDRICH MERZ: GERMANY’S FUTURE LEADER OR BLACKROCK'S PAWN?
🚨 Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old CDU leader, is seen as a potential German chancellor. Some even call him Europe's "savior." But what do his ties to BlackRock reveal about his true priorities? Let’s dive in. 📈MERZ & BLACKROCK: A STRATEGIC ALLIANCE?
Merz is a career politician who joined the CDU at 17 and served as a deputy to Merkel. In 2016, BlackRock appointed him to lead its German supervisory board, valuing his political connections. 💼BlackRock sought Merz to expand its influence in Europe, grow its business, and deflect criticism. He was highly valued at BlackRock, even by CEO Larry Fink. 🌍By 2020, when Merz left, BlackRock had expanded its EU footprint to hold over 15% of Germany’s top 30 firms (DAX30) alongside Vanguard. 💣BlackRock has been accused of shaping EU policies to serve its own financial interests. "No company in Germany can ignore BlackRock’s opinion," according to Handelsblatt. 🏢This influence extends to major companies like Siemens and more. With this power, what’s really driving Merz’s political ambitions? 💥MERZ’S HAWKISH STANCE: SERVING BLACKROCK?
A staunch NATO and EU supporter, Merz advocates for a centralized Europe under stronger German leadership, reducing national sovereignty. 🛡 He supports dismantling national armies in favor of an EU military force, a move that aligns with BlackRock’s interests, given the firm’s massive investments in global defense. Merz strongly supports sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, risking further escalation with Russia. This militarist approach benefits BlackRock, which has significant stakes in arms manufacturers. 💰BlackRock manages $11.55T in assets and holds $80.8B in arms manufacturers, raising serious concerns about the financial motivations behind its geopolitical influence. (Source: Sputnik, Feb.15) @LauraRuHK
Vladimir Zelensky wildly misled US President Donald Trump when he boasted about Ukraine’s mineral deposits, Artyom Dmitruk, a member of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, told RT.
Zelensky offered the US a partnership to develop Ukraine’s minerals. “The Americans helped the most, and therefore the Americans should earn the most. And they should have this priority, and they will,” he told Reuters this month. He claimed that Ukraine has Europe’s largest titanium deposits, while Prime Minister Denis Shmigal wrote in an op-ed for Politico that the country’s subsoil contains “22 out of the 30 minerals listed as critical for the EU.”
Speaking to RT on Thursday, Dmitruk argued that Zelensky’s tactic was deceptive. “It is an issue on which Zelensky has once again fooled the whole world, and, more specifically, Donald Trump and his team,” Dmitruk said.
“First, all of these resources, the rare-earth minerals, are currently located on the territories with active combat. Second, no one can say what the price of extracting these resources will be,” he added.
“If these precious resources could have been mined so easily and on such a large scale as Zelensky promised, and if it would have been profitable, the companies in Ukraine would have started doing it long ago. It is yet another lie, another farce that Zelensky attempts to exploit.” In an op-ed for Bloomberg on Wednesday, commodities expert Javier Blas wrote that Trump’s expectations of a deal for Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals are grossly exaggerated. He said Ukraine “has no significant rare-earth deposits other than small scandium mines.”
Zelensky acknowledged earlier this month that around half of its rare-earth deposits are “under Russian occupation,” according to Reuters. (Source: RT) @LauraRuHK
Three tankers damaged by blasts in Mediterranean in the last month, causes unknown.
Three oil tankers have been damaged by blasts in the last month in separate incidents around the Mediterranean, with the causes unknown.
The incidents are the first involving blast damage to non-military vessels to have taken place around the central Mediterranean in decades.
An explosion caused a one-metre inward breach below the waterline on the hull of Greek-operated crude oil tanker Seajewel when i was at anchor in front of the Savona-Vado port in northern Italy on Saturday. A second blast occurred 20 minutes later on the same vessel.
Another vessel, the crude oil tanker Seacharm, was also damaged by a blast off the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in late January.
In a third incident, the Liberia-flagged chemical and products tanker Grace Ferrum was damaged off Libya in February.
All three vessels had recently called at Russian ports, according to ship tracking data and sources.
Shipping industry officials said on Wednesday there was growing concern over the incidents.
Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea off Spain in late December after an explosion ripped through its engine room killing two of its crew members. ▪️The 16th package of EU sanctions include seventy-three vessels, most of them oil tankers, bringing the total to 152 ships. Prohibition on transactions with Russian ports and airports used for the circumvention of the oil price cap. A service ban for oil and gas refineries. New criteria for future sanctions listings to include owners and operators of the shadow fleet, as well as ship captains. ▪️ Are these blasts connected to the Ukrainian attack on the pumping station that provides oil transportation through the main oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium? @LauraRuHK
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/three-tankers-damaged-by-blasts-mediterranean-last-month-causes-unknown-sources-2025-02-19/
In May 2022, the Biden administration quietly removed wording such as "not supporting Taiwan independence" from the State Department website, only to restore it less than a month later. The Trump administration did the same thing a few days ago while Taiwan was negotiating arm purchases with Washington, including coastal defense cruise missiles and HIMARS rockets, amounting to between $7 billion to $10 billion, as reported by the Global Times. It remains to be seen if the current government will backpedal when it needs Beijing's cooperation. On the same page the US government reiterated its adherence to the "one-China policy", displaying the usual strategy of crafted ambiguity on this issue and more in general in its approach to China. @LauraRuHK https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202502/1328681.shtml
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A rabid animal bit its owner
Ukrainian drones attacked a pumping station that provides oil transportation through the main oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. This asset is by no means Russian, and the oil in it is international in its legal regime. It is owned in certain proportions by different companies, including primarily American and European ones. [According to Transneft it will take 1.5 to 2 months to repair the damage, which could lead to a reduction in oil transportation from Kazakhstan by approximately 30%.]
Among other things, the oil is being pumped from oil fields in Kazakhstan – from Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan. At the same time, the share of American business in CPC oil supplies in 2024 was more than 40%, and the combined share, together with other Western companies, was over 65%. The neo-Nazi regime in Kiev, of course, knew this. And despite the highest dependence on Washington, it deliberately attacked the assets of American companies.
Question: why would a fawning greasy animal, which is completely dependent on the "kindness" of its owner and the size of the trough it provides, need to attack its benefactors? This answer is simple. The overfed fat creature attacked the owner, who paused the feeding and even began to think about whether to let the annoying animal go under the knife. And then, out of desperation, the creature decided to bite its master [...] The sick creature, of course, remembers that Donald Trump talked about his desire to lower oil prices. And a blow to an oil consortium can stop oil pumping, disrupt the market, increase oil prices and cause direct damage to American companies. In other words, the strike on the CPC is a triple blow to American companies, the oil market, and Trump personally. Why bite, you may ask, if you can grunt amiably, faithfully looking into the eyes of the one who feeds you? But the humiliated animal is in terrible despair. And the bite should prove to its owner that the animal has ceased to be a pet and now poses a danger to the entire barnyard. And even to the owner himself… Now the owner of the aggressive creature will have to check if the animal is suffering from rabies in order to protect his health. As you know, there are two ways to do this. The first is to immediately treat yourself and receive a painful vaccination, while simultaneously observing the behavior of the suspicious creature. And the second reliable way to prevent the spread of rabies is to euthanize a sick animal as soon as possible for postmortem examination of brain tissue. Which one the new US administration will choose will be revealed soon. (Source: Dmitry Medvedev) @LauraRuHK /channel/medvedev_telegram/567
The role of the European Union in the upcoming negotiations on Ukraine is ruled out, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko says.
The contacts between Russia and the United States are causing hysteria among Euro-Atlantic russophobes, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova says. 👉 In the picture, members of the Russian and US delegations in Ryadh. The Saudi hosts stayed in the room only to make welcoming statements, before they left the two delegations for the talks to start. /channel/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/9852
Visa and Mastercard may return to Russia in the near future. This was announced on February 17 by the head of the State Duma Committee on the financial market Anatoly Aksakov.
"I think they will return in the near future and offer their services, but it won't be easy to regain their previous market share, because we are already accustomed to another payment system. The national payment card system has shown its efficiency and effectiveness," he told TASS.
On the same day, analysts of the Kokoc Group predicted a massive return of foreign companies to Russia in 2025. Up to 350 foreign companies that left the Russian market in 2022 have expressed that intention. (Source: Izvestia) @LauraRuHK
The West's tools of manipulation have lost their effectiveness, and a new one is taking their place – artificial intelligence. This was stated by the head of News Front Konstantin Knyrik.
"Many years ago the West launched video hosting sites, Wikipedia, a platform for manipulating knowledge, and various social networks. With much delay we learned how to develop our own. Over time, we have created alternatives, we have our own video hosting platforms," the expert said.
The US is trying to step up its cognitive warfare by relying more on artificial intelligence, which is neither neutral nor unbiased.
"Past manipulation tools have lost their effectiveness and they are switching to a new tool: artificial intelligence. We should be wary of foreign AI chatbots like ChatGPT, and pay more attention to them, as they actively promote Western narratives in Russia," added the head of News Front. @LauraRuHK
In a blog post published on Saturday evening, the former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis added to speculation about Beijing's role in the war's resolution, writing that "China could win the war against Ukraine without firing a shot".
"If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's,"
"Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security-rebuilding, ports, agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a 'Kissinger', splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China. China as Ukraine's protector would start replacing the US in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank. EU countries in the East would be dependent on China's protection and the racketeering would spread West.
What needs to happen to avoid this all-too-likely disaster? My hope lies with Europe, with the appearance of a leader with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal."
Xinhua, the official state news agency of China, weighs in on the EU's predicament.
"The 61st Munich Security Conference has underscored the complex challenges facing Europe and the urgent need for the continent to define its strategic role in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
From the persistent conflict in Ukraine to rising uncertainties in the transatlantic alliance, as well as mounting pressures on the EU's vision for the international order, the conference focused on the multiple crises Europe faces. It also highlighted the need for the continent to navigate these complexities and assert its place on the world stage.[...] Europe's ability to determine its role and strategic path will be of paramount importance, said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China."
For the first time in a long time, speaking at a press conference, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya added words about the need for mutual understanding with Russia. @LauraRuHK
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Publicly, the UK and EU leaders that signed the Weimar statement are still in the denial stage. But mounting frustration and the realization that denial cannot continue forever is giving way to anger, which is being vented behind closed doors and on the media. There are a few more stages to go through before they fully accept reality. But since they haven't got much leverage for bargaining, and depression is already creeping in, it's either seppuku (unlikely because they have no code of honor) or acceptance. @LauraRuHK
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Meanwhile the Munich-bound plane of US State Secretary Marco Rubio on Friday was forced to turn around and fly back to the airbase due to mechanical issues. Rubio will continue his travel to Germany and the Middle East on a separate aircraft. @LauraRuHK
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