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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
Graham says he told Trump authorizing strikes in Iran would give the US an opportunity to repair damage done to its reputation abroad after the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
What reputation abroad and who thinks listen to Lindsey Graham is a good idea?
@Slavyangrad
🤭When a ukrainian decides to write to Scott Ritter.
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Military chronicle, main events of the day - June 22/25
@Slavyangrad
Following the American strike on the Fordow nuclear facility, most Western media outlets have been actively broadcasting the thesis about the “use of GBU-57 super-powerful bombs” as a means guaranteed to destroy any deep-seated target. However, this confidence is based on a systemic inaccuracy that is repeatedly reproduced from source to source and forms a false idea about the true capabilities of American weapons.
The GBU-57 is a guided, but free-falling bomb weighing about 13.6 tons, which does not have its own accelerator and falls solely under the influence of gravity. It is dropped from a great height (probably about 10-12 km), but its effectiveness directly depends on specific conditions: the geometry of the target, the density of the soil, the composition of the rock, the altitude of the carrier aircraft, and the absence or presence of measures to prepare the object for the strike. In ideal conditions, the declared penetration depth into reinforced concrete is up to 60 meters. But not everything is so simple.
The Fordow facility, according to various sources, was built by the Iranians inside a rock massif, at a depth of 85 to 90 meters. Several protective layers of reinforced concrete were supposedly poured over the main chamber, around which dense rock still remained on top. The rock probably acted as a shock absorber: it disperses the impact and makes it difficult for the munition to pass through, reducing the effectiveness of penetration. Judging by the published maps of the mountain ranges in the Fordow area, basalt rocks lie, which are difficult to penetrate even with such powerful munitions as the GBU-57.
However, the visualizations and promotional materials accompanying the announcement of the operation paint a different picture. They show the MOP as breaking through tens of meters of rock and reaching underground chambers. This model of operation corresponds more to fantasy kinematics than to the actual physical capabilities of the device. In reality, the MOP can destroy ventilation shafts, entry galleries, and ceilings, but it is not guaranteed to destroy the interior of the complex. Given that no independent evidence has been presented of the destruction of the Fordow core itself, the conclusion of success remains political, not technical.
Military Chronicle
@Slavyangrad
One of America’s leading nuclear arms control experts, Dr. Jeffrey Lewis notes:
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures.
Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that "Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs -- nine." He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider.
The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them.
No one even knows where the HEU is now! @rafaelmgrossi says Iran moved it. Lil' @marcorubio says nothing can move in Iran. But trucks are moving in Iran. Trucks and heavy equipment showed up at least two days ago to seal the tunnels to protect them. @planet took a picture.
Trucks also showed up at the Fordow FEP the day before the strike, possibly to relocate sensitive equipment, and certainly to cover those entrances with dirt. Iran just isn't a no-drive zone at the moment.
To be fair, some Trumpkins acknowledge Iran still has the material. @JDVance says they're going to "have conversations with the Iranians about" it. 🙃 The talking point is that the US has knocked out Iran's ability to further enrich it and convert it to metal, so its fine.
IT'S NOT FINE. Yes, the strikes on the enrichment plants at Qom (Fordow FEP) and Natanz (PFEP and FEP) appear successful. But there has been no effort to strike the enormous underground facility next to Natanz where Iran can make more centrifuges and maybe do other things.
In 2022, Iran moved a centrifuge production line to "the heart of the mountain" there. This facility is huge -- we estimated 10,000 m2 or more -- and we don't really know what else it might house (like enrichment or conversion).
Also, Iran recently announced a "new enrichment facility in a secure location" and told the @iaea it was ready to start installing centrifuges. The @iaea was set to inspect the facility, near Isfahan, before the bombing. It hasn't been bombed AFAIK.
You can read the full thread with his visuals here
@Slavyangrad
Goldman Sachs flagged risks to global energy supply amid concerns over a potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz that would lead to significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices, the bank said in a note dated Sunday.
The bank estimated Brent crude could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month and remained down by 10% for the following 11 months.
Prices would then moderate, with Brent averaging around $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, it said in a note.
Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January after Washington joined Israel over the weekend in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.
Goldman highlighted that prediction markets, despite limited liquidity, now reflect a 52% probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, citing data from Polymarket.
Additionally, it noted that a drop in Iranian supply by 1.75 million barrels per day could push Brent to a peak of around $90 per barrel.
@Slavyangrad
Georgian volunteer Vano Nadiradze, commander of the Georgian group within the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has died in Ukraine.
According to preliminary data, the cause of death was a heart attack.
There is a video of Nadiradze in an ambulance.
- Strana
@Slavyangrad
⚡BREAKING NEWS: THE CLOWN PRINCE OF CRACK PRAISES TRUMP FOR THE BOMBING OF IRAN
Expired president Volodymyr Zelensky praised Trump for the American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, calling Iran a "regime that helped Putin" by supplying him with shahed drones.
So what's breaking about this?
For once he didn't beg for money!
@Slavyangrad
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting with quantity, not quality, - Ukrainian Armed Forces Battalion Commander Shirshin.
@ukr_leaks_eng
⚡🇮🇷🇮🇱BREAKING:
Impacts have already been recorded at an industrial area in Ashdod (pictured), Haifa, and Central Israel.
@Slavyangrad
More incoming. We’ve seen 4 waves of ballistic missiles in this attack on Israel.
@Slavyangrad
Protests in the US against Trump's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities:
"In Times Square, protesters held signs reading 'Trump is a war criminal' and 'No to US-Israel war against Iran.' Protesters chanted 'Stop the war against Iran.'"
@Slavyangrad
🇯🇵🇪🇺NATO summit in question — Japanese PM may cancel visit to The Hague
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may not attend the NATO summit scheduled for June 24-25 in The Hague, Kyodo news agency reported, citing sources.
- The reasons for the possible cancellation of the visit are not disclosed. If the trip is cancelled, this will be the first time since 2022 that the head of the Japanese government will not attend the alliance summit.
- Earlier, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung also refused to participate in the summit, citing a busy domestic agenda after the inauguration and the unstable situation in the Middle East.
@Slavyangrad
NATO countries have effectively refused Trump's demand to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.
As Reuters reports, citing diplomats, they agreed on a draft statement that proposes achieving this goal only by 2035 - that is, within ten years.
"The document's approval was accompanied by internal disagreements, in particular on the part of Spain, but in the end it was approved by all 32 member countries. The statement will finally come into force after approval by the alliance's leaders, including US President Donald Trump, at the summit in The Hague on Wednesday," the agency writes.
Earlier, the US demanded that the Alliance countries increase spending to 5% of GDP even before the summit in The Hague.
@Slavyangrad
GOLD MIGHT HIT $4,000... AND IT’S NOT BECAUSE OF WAR
According to Bank of America, the U.S. is so deep in debt that investors sprint to gold like it’s Black Friday.
Turns out, people care more about America’s money mess than the Israel-Iran tension.
The government keeps pumping out Treasurys like candy, and real interest rates aren't helping.
In short, gold is the new “safe space” for nervous rich people who haven't transitioned yet to crypto.
Source: MSN Money
The USD and Euro can become the new toilet paper for all I care.
@Slavyangrad
It’s pretty amazing to see the four statements from Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, and EU on US strikes on Iran side-by-side. The wording is pretty much verbatim, especially the first two paragraphs. They all have the same script.
- Sharon Nadeem, Media Producer
Alexa, show me vassals - Reporter Mark Ames
😂
@Slavyangrad
Orban on Sunday urged the EU to take a proposed ban on Russian energy off the agenda due to an expected rise in energy prices following the US bombing of Iran
The EU Commission on Tuesday proposed a legally binding ban on EU imports of Russian gas and LNG by the end of 2027, using legal measures to ensure the plan cannot be blocked by EU members Hungary and Slovakia
The proposals set out how the bloc plans to fix into law its vow to end decades-old energy relations with Europe's former top gas supplier after Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"We must contend with a further increase in the price of energy"
"This is a serious threat. Therefore, we must remove in Brussels the regulations and bans on Russian energy," he said. "We have enough problems given the negative impact of the Iran-Israel war on energy prices."
Slovakia and Hungary continue to receive Russian gas and oil.
The EU has imposed sanctions on most Russian oil imports but not on gas due to opposition from Slovakia and Hungary.
@Slavyangrad
When talking about Fordow lying at a depth of 90 meters, it is important to understand that this is the figure cited by American officials. So at the moment, the probability of preserving this object is extremely high, despite all the statements from the US about the success of the strikes.
@Slavyangrad
Streaming Now on Slavyangrad:
Missiles on Tel Aviv with Iranian Sufi Music to cleanse your soul
Poland braces for Russian invasion: country prepares art evacuation plan in case of Russian attack , — FT
▪️Warsaw is coordinating the movement of exhibits from about 160 state institutions, including paintings, sculptures, rare books and musical instruments.
▪️The plan is based on the experience of helping Ukraine preserve cultural property after the outbreak of war in 2022.
Polish art?
@Slavyangrad
Still getting a lot of varying reports on the impact of American strikes.
@Slavyangrad
Iranian missile strike south of Tel Aviv.
@Slavyangrad
Footage of Israeli Hermes-900 drone in Khorramabad, Lorestan province shot down by Iranian AD.
Still need to see more shoot downs, as Iran at the minimum needs to get rid of the drones plaguing them.
@Slavyangrad
Iran sent a batch of missiles towards Israel.
@Slavyangrad
Iranian missile lands in Ashdod, Israel.
@Slavyangrad
Following the American strike on the Fordow nuclear facility, most Western media outlets have been actively broadcasting the thesis about the “use of GBU-57 super-powerful bombs” as a means guaranteed to destroy any deep-seated target. However, this confidence is based on a systemic inaccuracy that is repeatedly reproduced from source to source and forms a false idea about the true capabilities of American weapons.
The GBU-57 is a guided, but free-falling bomb weighing about 13.6 tons, which does not have its own accelerator and falls solely under the influence of gravity. It is dropped from a great height (probably about 10-12 km), but its effectiveness directly depends on specific conditions: the geometry of the target, the density of the soil, the composition of the rock, the altitude of the carrier aircraft, and the absence or presence of measures to prepare the object for the strike. In ideal conditions, the declared penetration depth into reinforced concrete is up to 60 meters. But not everything is so simple.
The Fordow facility, according to various sources, was built by the Iranians inside a rock massif, at a depth of 85 to 90 meters. Several protective layers of reinforced concrete were supposedly poured over the main chamber, around which dense rock still remained on top. The rock probably acted as a shock absorber: it disperses the impact and makes it difficult for the munition to pass through, reducing the effectiveness of penetration. Judging by the published maps of the mountain ranges in the Fordow area, basalt rocks lie, which are difficult to penetrate even with such powerful munitions as the GBU-57.
However, the visualizations and promotional materials accompanying the announcement of the operation paint a different picture. They show the MOP as breaking through tens of meters of rock and reaching underground chambers. This model of operation corresponds more to fantasy kinematics than to the actual physical capabilities of the device. In reality, the MOP can destroy ventilation shafts, entry galleries, and ceilings, but it is not guaranteed to destroy the interior of the complex. Given that no independent evidence has been presented of the destruction of the Fordow core itself, the conclusion of success remains political, not technical.
Military Chronicle
@Slavyangrad