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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
Several explosions in the Juffair area of the Bahraini capital, Manama.
@Slavyangrad
Let’s be clear though—I hope you all understand why we’ve been saying there will never be a Trump pissdill in the Ukrainian war?
None in the Kremlin is an idiot. Any “peace talks” are merely for show—there is no one stupid enough in the Russian government (yes, including Kira Dmitriev!) to take seriously anything that comes out of Trump’s mouth.
A pissdill was never in the cards.
What the US operation in Iran revealed.
Formally, it's not yet over, but everyone understands well that the elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei and the country's top leadership is the ultimate outcome for Iran.
Firstly, there can't be too many cruise missiles. Against classic air attack means, you can't argue, and the more of them you have, the faster specific combat tasks are resolved.
Secondly, there can't be too many ballistic missiles either. However, it seems that Iran failed to restore their stockpiles to the previous level after last year's events.
Thirdly, the elimination of Khamenei demonstrates that miscalculations and relying on luck instead of moving to protected structures can have fatal consequences.
Fourthly, eliminating the leadership of an enemy country is normal. If an agreement can't be reached, the hope is that a change in the figure at the head of the state will change the configuration of the negotiations and open up new opportunities for agreements.
Fifthly, if you don't have nuclear weapons, no one will take you seriously.
The grouping of air forces in Israel, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and the Arabian Sea was well distributed, and the operation was perfectly planned, which ultimately allowed for a quick achievement of a good result for the US and Israel.
The US didn't try to be ceremonious and play with Iran in humanism, and in the end, they achieved everything they wanted, and possibly even more.
As for Iran, in turn, it didn't fulfill almost any of its threats except for the red flag of revenge. The Strait of Hormuz wasn't blocked, no significant damage was done to American military bases in the region, Israel wasn't destroyed, and no super-missiles hit any aircraft carriers.
They slightly terrorized their neighbors, but this can't be considered a result.
@Slavyangrad
In Iraq, a crowd tried to break into the US embassy:
Local media reports that Khamenei's supporters are attempting to reach the center of Baghdad, where foreign and government facilities are located, in order to storm the US embassy. The police are using force.
@Slavyangrad
The mysterious Tomahawk cruise missile, previously unseen in black color, was launched from a US Navy destroyer during strikes on Iran on February 28th.
According to TWZ, this is a version of the Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST) Block V missile with a black anti-radar coating, similar to the one used on the new long-range anti-ship missiles AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM).
@Slavyangrad
I will be frank—the news from IRIB confirming Khamenei’s death was deflating.
Try to imagine—if Netanyahu or Trump had been killed—the impact on their respective nations. Or Putin? Or Xi?
In Khamenei’s case, he was also the supreme religious leader, believed to be a descendant of no less than Mohammed. Ponder that for a second.
True, provisions have been made for his replacement. True, his death will have little impact on Iran’s military capability. True, it may even invigorate the Shia resistance across the Middle East.
Nonetheless, the shock and trauma involved are hard to summarily dismiss.
All those who think they are playing a Civilization game session should think a bit harder. The impact of a long-term leader’s loss is hard to calculate, even if he is “old,” a “boomer” or possessed of some other pejorative quality the gamers among us seem to be so fond of mentioning.
This is a tragedy for the nation. It could make the said nation stronger, but it will undoubtedly have a significant detrimental impact.
Do not reassure yourselves merely to be disappointed. The US is using the last of its trump cards. Let’s hope they ain’t enough.
Scenes from the operation that targeted American bases in Erbil province.
@Slavyangrad
A point has to be made—every comment (public and private) from Russian military men that I’ve seen regarding the Shahed drones points out that they are grievously behind the Russian development of their Geran offspring.
What is unfortunate is that the US got involved in the fight before the anti-US entente solidified in earnest.
That’s ok—there is still time to react, but Russia and China need to find a way to do so, faster.
Let me repost:
This morning I was asked on Boston radio about the US–Israel strikes on Iran.
Here is the strategic reality most people are missing:
Airpower alone has never produced positive regime change.
I don’t mean rarely.
I mean NEVER.
Iran will not fall. If it does, it will be atrocious for Russia. You and Yiyun can fly a kite.
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As for the US carriers, Iran simply does not have the range. Iran’s anti-ship missiles (with active guidance) are generally limited to a 300km range.
Ballistic missiles, with a significantly greater range, do not have active guidance and would need a miracle to hit a mobile target, such as an aircraft carrier.
The US keeps their juicy targets about 700km away from Iran’s shores.
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇰🇼/🇨🇳 NEW: Satellite imagery released by China shows at least 4 impacts at Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait as a result of Iranian ballistic missile strikes
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Slavyangrad
Allegedly, IRIB Iranian state media has confirmed Khamenei’s death (pbuh).
We will confirm and advise.
There seems to be a misunderstanding—Russia can’t do anything more to help Iran (beyond the significant help it has already sent and provided by way of expertise—very few of you seem to realize how much more effective the Iranian strikes are this time around… ask yourself why, and who ensured this outcome).
I am talking about China—with great power comes responsibility (a great quotation that emerged from the American pop culture, though whether anyone of significance there follows it is a separate question)—and whither China?
North Korea—got it. Impeccable. Iran—not bad, very solid effort. Even Vietnam (believe it or not) has put in a contribution (and Cuba’s legend is an unsurpassable feat in and of itself).
But where is China in proportion to its heft and significance?
Time to get up and pull the roots out.
The final number of dead at the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in Minab, southern Iran, is 108 school girls, a spokesperson for the Iranian Red Crescent Society said — more than half of the roughly 170 students who attend the school.
It remains unclear whether the strike was carried out by the U.S. or Israel. A CENTCOM spokesperson said they were “looking into” the reports.
@Slavyangrad
Russian Ministry of Defense:
During the past night, the on-duty air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 27 Ukrainian UAVs:
8 - over the territory of the Bryansk region,
7 - over the territory of the Belgorod region,
7 - over the territory of the Kursk region,
2 - over the territory of the Tula region,
2 - over the territory of the Oryol region,
1 - over the territory of the Rostov region.
@Slavyangrad
🇺🇦🤡The official account of Ukraine on X.
@Slavyangrad
Overview from Roman Donetsky (@donrf22), with which I largely agree:
Details of Khamenei’s assassination
1. According to the Iranians, he was killed in his office, not at his residence.
2. The secretary of the Security Council and a high-ranking commander of the IRGC were killed alongside him. This suggests that all three were in the command post, which was targeted with anti-bunker weapons. Hence the evening reports and denials by the Persians.
He was not at his residence. Everyone knew that. The president at the second command post is alive and control has not been lost.
The story of Hamas is repeating itself, where the assassination of leaders did not break the organisation, but allowed it to shift the focus away from the United States.
In Iran, they will choose a leader not from among the people of 1979, but from among the veterans of the Iran-Iraq War. That is, instead of the old Bolsheviks, they will choose Stalinists.
There are two lessons for us. First, negotiations are a path to a strike. It will not necessarily be with missiles. But it will happen. Trump is killing all his negotiating partners. If he gets lucky, there is a coup.
And second, Zelensky. You can continue to respect the law. But as the experience of Venezuela and Iran has shown, in the new world, it's either you kill or you get killed. And that's something to remember. #Iran
@Slavyangrad
People are chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" following the news of the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
@Slavyangrad
To be clear: the US has no capability in the region, at present, to do any serious harm to Iran.
Neither does Iran vis-á-vis the US assets.
Without US ground troops, this is, at best, a stalemate.
Even with US ground troops, Iran is very unlikely to fall, but a lot of blood would then have been spilled.
Israel is largely irrelevant in this equation.
If Iran wants to be left alone, it should learn the Juche path of the North Koreans and split the nucleus.
That’s about it. If, as I expect, this war is over in 1-2 weeks (possibly sooner), then the cycle will just repeat itself, eventually.
Eventually, the US will come with a land force. That war will either be the ruin of the US or it will be the ruin of Iran (and with it, much of the rest of the region).
Standing together, the anti-American entente will lose immediate profits, but gain a long-term future.
Time to pick a goal.
⭐️ They targeted the American presence in Erbil with drones and ballistic missiles.
US base in Erbil continues to be hit but its obviously the easiest and closest base.
@Slavyangrad
Anyone else who wants to doubt the veracities of @Slavyangrad are welcome to announce themselves. Kind thanks.
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If Iran had the capability of sinking the US fleet, it would already have been done. Dixi.
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Well, the leader is dead.
Khamenei’s death is unlikely to be to Iran’s detriment. Nonetheless, it showcases the significant gap in deterrence and defence capability between the great and the rising/acolyte powers of the crystallizing world order.
The great powers can protect the members of the executive branch. Those below them in stature cannot easily resist the threat, even with advance warning.
The answer, unfortunately, is nuclear deterrence. The next 10-15 years will see a swathe of up-and-comers claim nuclear status. Among the first will be Iran, and the Middle East will finally fall into peace.
IRIB—/channel/iribnews/317386
“To God we belong, and to Him we shall return.
The Leader of the Ummah, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, His Eminence Ayatollah Khamenei, has been martyred.
@iribnews”
It seems the bulk of Iranian attacks are concentrated on US bases in the Gulf countries, Israel has been a secondary target so far.
@Slavyangrad
🇺🇸🏴☠⚔🇮🇷 The US sends worldwide caution now.
State the obvious.
@Slavyangrad
🇮🇷 | An Iranian drone impacts the Burj Al-Arab in Dubai, targeting one of the city’s most prominent structures.
@Slavyangrad