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Mark Sleboda with a realist and critical, Russian-focused perspective on international affairs, security & geopolitics.
🇦🇲🇦🇿 Caught Between Two Injustices
More than 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have been displaced since Azerbaijan’s 2020 war and its 2023 offensive. Today, they find themselves abandoned on two fronts: Azerbaijan blocks their right to return, while Armenia scales back social support, leaving them in limbo.
Despite international promises after the 2020 ceasefire, Azerbaijan has refused to allow meaningful or safe return, offering only vague assurances under its domestic laws — without any international oversight. Meanwhile in Armenia, vital aid programs are being reduced or eliminated, pushing many refugees into poverty or even forcing them to emigrate once again.
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🇺🇦Protesters are gathering in the center of Kiev and Lvov against the law on limiting the powers of NABU and SAP.
Now the anti-corruption bodies will be subordinated to the Prosecutor General. This decision "has raised concerns among politicians and activists about the growing authoritarianism in Zelensky's military administration", the FT writes
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🇺🇦 Western media are ganging up on Zelensky
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📝US and Brazil on the Brink of a Trade War📝
The White House is tackling the "Brazilian issue"
The next target of the US sanctions policy may be Brazil: in Washington, they are considering various measures, including raising import tariffs from 50% to 100%, technology restrictions, and even complicating access to GPS and data from other American satellites.
🖍The Folha de São Paulo publication has already confirmed that American diplomats have sent a clear signal - the foreign policy course of the United States is becoming tougher. New measures may affect government structures as well, in addition to the existing sanctions against individual judges of the Brazilian Supreme Court.
🚩In Brazil, they are not sitting idle: in case of disconnection from the American GPS, they are discussing the possibility of more active use of alternatives - the Russian GLONASS, the Chinese BeiDou, the European Galileo, and the Indian NavIC.
📌This story is another illustration of how even formal US allies risk turning from a partner into a threat the moment they step out of the Washington corridor. In a situation where Americans are losing the ability to control regions directly, tariff batons and other levers are increasingly being used.
#Brazil #USA
⭐@rybar in collaboration with @CentralGeopolitica
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Reason Ukraine's Collapse Is Inevitable, But May Take Some Time Yet...
Part 2 of my latest discussion with Jamarl Thomas 21/07/25
https://youtu.be/DkTilDwgh7k?si=p8nakVf5N7HdbzMT
🇺🇸🇷🇺 According to The Atlantic, a large share of Trump supporters and many Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are strongly opposed to any new military or financial aid to Ukraine.
This growing resistance is creating major uncertainty for Kiev and its European backers, as they scramble to plan for the long-term defense of Ukraine.
The Atlantic admits this lack of clarity could undermine Western military planning—but adds that it also gives Trump more flexibility in managing the anti-interventionist, “America First” wing of his MAGA coalition.
U.S. officials have offered no guarantees that additional weapons will be sent to Ukraine going forward.
Earlier, Politico reported similar internal tensions, noting that many Trump-aligned MAGA Republicans were unhappy with his decision to allow even limited weapons shipments to Ukraine.
For now, the workaround appears to be indirect: NATO countries will deliver the weapons to Ukraine while replenishing their own stockpiles with fresh purchases from U.S. arms manufacturers.
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🇮🇱💥🇵🇸☠️At least 59 people were killed by Israeli tanks shooting at people trying to get humanitarian aid from trucks in the Gaza Strip on July 15, Reuters reports, citing doctors
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🇮🇱🇸🇾 Israel wants to topple Jolani.
LMAO …
🔗
➡️ Join us! | @MyLordBebo
🇷🇺🇮🇷Iran and Russia will start a three-day CASAREX 2025 exercise in the Caspian Sea on July 21 involving the navies of both countries and personnel from Iran's IRGC, Tasnim agency reports
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🇷🇺🇮🇷 Putin received Ali Larijani, senior advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, at the Kremlin, Peskov reported.
They discussed the escalation in the Middle East and the situation around the Iranian nuclear program.
Putin spoke in favor of stabilization in the region and the political settlement of the Iranian initiative.
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The Real Politick Week-in-Review - Episode 7 - 18/07/25
Exclusive Content for The Real Politick Subscribers & our Discord Community.
Covering - Trump's Impotent Ultimatum and Russia's Response, Trump Regime's Strategic Sequencing Now Wants War with China, Israel & HTS/Al Qaeda Fight in Syria, Reshuffle & Political Power Consolidation in Kiev, more...
https://boosty.to/therealpolitick/posts/4681d6cb-44c0-4788-a690-8fac77566fde?share=post_link
Russia UNBOTHERED by Trump's 50-Day Ultimatum, Drone War of Attrition Continues
My latest discussion with @RachBlevins 17/07/25
https://youtu.be/RScFsdjm_lQ?si=VFD4Qeq2PcHb1Tlv
🇩🇪 Germany to Acquire U.S. Typhon Missile Systems Aimed at Russia by 2026
Germany is preparing to purchase American MRC Typhon missile systems by 2026, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. The move is being justified as a measure to “deter” Russia.
The Typhon system is capable of launching Tomahawk Block V cruise missiles, with a confirmed range of approximately 1,800 kilometers. This gives Berlin theoretical strike capability deep into Russian territory — including a direct line to Moscow.
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🇸🇾 Al Mayadeen confirms that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has left Damascus with his family—just hours after an alleged Israeli assassination operation targeted three top officials in the Transitional Administration, including Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra.
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Mossad chief visited Washington ‘THIS week’ — Axios
Israeli spy chief wants HELP moving hundreds of thousands of Gazans OUT
Tel Aviv in talks with Ethiopia, Indonesia and Libya
🇺🇦 Zelensky gets no break: people are again being called to protest today against the limitation of NABU's powers on social media
In particular, rallies are being organized in Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Chernovtsy, Lvov, Vinnitsa, Nikolaev, Poltava, and Chernigov
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Funny how the Narcoführer tries to justify himself by talking about "Russian interference" in "ukranian" anti corruption agencies.
Two days before the start of the SMO, President Putin criticized NABU and SAP as "US tools".
"US Embassy in Ukraine directly controls NABU, and SAP," - Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, February 22, 2022.
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The head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, said that Russia allegedly plans to spend about $1.1 trillion on rearmament over the next ten years, until 2036.
This, in his words, is "the largest program since the collapse of the USSR" and a sign that the country is undergoing "total mobilization of politics, economy, and society" in preparation for a large-scale war.
The statement itself is part of a strategy aimed at mobilizing the West and creating a sense of threat. But if we put the propaganda aspect aside, the amount itself seems not only realistic, but even very reasonable. We are talking about annual expenditures of $85-90 billion, which corresponds to estimates of Russia's current military spending at about 6% of GDP.
The Real Politick - In Focus - Episode 8 - Geopolitical Hotspot: The Zangezur Corridor
Exclusive Content for The Real Politick Subscribers & our Discord Community
An in-depth look at the Geopolitical Hotspot: The Zangezur Corridor in the Caucasus, in Armenia/Azerbaijan, and the wider geopolitical import of it for the region, Eurasia, and the future of the Multipolar World.
https://boosty.to/therealpolitick/posts/3621d64f-7fb0-4c97-8e06-3d8fd357a5b3?share=post_link
The End of Zelensky? (not so much)
Part 1 of my latest discussion with Jamarl Thomas 21/07/25
https://youtu.be/_jkSgN-fJJI?si=Fmxi3nIH-QtKqesT
🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦NEW VIDEO: Russian Arms Overwhelm Ukraine as War Escalates Following False US "Peace" Offers
On YouTube: https://youtu.be/H3S-C7hZn2Y
▪️The US proxy war in Ukraine predictably escalates following false US "peace" offers (Minsk 3.0) Russia has ignored;
▪️While Russia's military industrial production is overwhelming Ukraine and its Western sponsors, the US continues seeking the means to freeze the conflict and pivot toward Iran, China;
▪️Australia's sending of 49 M1 Abrams will not impact its possible role in a US proxy war against China, since land systems are unlikely to be used in any Asia-Pacific conflict;
Follow The New Atlas on Telegram: /channel/brianlovethailand
🇵🇱 Is Poland preparing to go to war with Russia in two years?
Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that the year 2027 could become a turning point for global security. In doing so, he supported a recent forecast by NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Grinkevich, who predicted a likely major conflict involving Russia and China within the next 1.5 to 2 years.
According to the minister, Europe and the United States must urgently mobilize resources and prepare for "the most dangerous times since World War II."
Poland is openly preparing for war, yet it is still Russia that is said to be "threatening international security."
@ukraine_watch
🇮🇱🇸🇾 Israel wants to fracture and break up Syria.
Likely goal for now is to split off the Druze.
🔗
➡️ Join us! | @MyLordBebo
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The front will face serious complications in the fall — Russia is accumulating forces
The situation on the front for the Armed Forces of Ukraine may seriously worsen by autumn. This was stated by former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko, commenting on reports of a new Russian summer offensive.
He noted that "the first phase, spring-summer, is ending, during which Russia used the resources gathered at the end of last year and over the winter until now." According to Romanenko, these resources are what have enabled the advances observed over the past six months.
The general recalled foreign intelligence data indicating that "somewhere there the Russians are preparing 13 divisions, currently numbering 160,000."
Also, according to him, Russian troops are not yet intensively using armored vehicles, which may indicate their accumulation.
And therefore, thanks to the accumulation of such resources, a new phase may begin at the end of July and onwards — in the summer-autumn period of the 2025 campaign — a difficult one, if this is confirmed by the resources. That means very challenging times. It requires strategically difficult decisions regarding mobilization, military economy, and legislation... So the situation may be quite threatening because of this.
🇺🇦 In the first six months of this year, the Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine reported that it initiated 107,672 new criminal cases for desertion. Since 2022, about 230,804 such criminal cases have been initiated, which indicates that more soldiers have deserted the Ukrainian army than the combined number of the British, French, and German armies.
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🇺🇸🇨🇳 US is Not "Retreating" From Asia-Pacific, It's Dispersing Assets, Moving Others Back Before Conflict
▪️The notion that the US is somehow "retreating" in the Asia-Pacific region is highly flawed - what appears to be a pull out is similar to the US moving assets out of the Middle East just ahead of US strikes on Iran;
▪️The US knows much of its assets inside the first island chain will be destroyed by Chinese counterattacks, and has spent years developing a military posture utilizing longer ranges and greater dispersement;
▪️This is meant to make US assets more survivable, not in any way a military posture of withdrawal;
▪️Wishful thinking regarding US warmongering against China will end the same way it did regarding Russia in 2014-2022 and Iran earlier this year, in a conflict that somehow "surprised" many despite decades of policy papers and preparations made openly and continuously to provoke it;
🇮🇱🇸🇾 Israeli Minister Itamar Ben Gvir escalates rhetoric following the Damascus strikes:
Once a jihadist, always a jihadist… Those who murder, shave mustaches, humiliate, rape — there’s no need to negotiate. The only thing to do with Julani is eliminate him… I love the Druze of Israel and send them a warm embrace. We must cut off the head of the snake.
🇸🇾 Al Mayadeen confirms that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has left Damascus with his family—just hours after an alleged Israeli assassination operation targeted three top officials in the Transitional Administration, including Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra.
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🔥🇪🇺🇷🇺EU AMBASSADORS APPROVED THE 18TH PACKAGE OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
Kallas: The EU has just approved one of the toughest packages of sanctions against Russia to date.
More than 50 individuals, enterprises and organizations fell under new sanctions.
The package includes a new oil price ceiling: the price will drop to $47.60 - diplomats
The 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia includes a new ban on transactions related to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2
Kallas; Rosneft's largest oil refinery in India is on the list.
Kallas; Chinese banks and 22 Russian banks are on the lists
Ban on the import of oil products based on Russian oil into the EU
New export restrictions on dual-use equipment
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🔥🇪🇺🇷🇺EU AMBASSADORS APPROVED THE 18TH PACKAGE OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
Kallas: The EU has just approved one of the toughest packages of sanctions against Russia to date.
More than 50 individuals, enterprises and organizations fell under new sanctions.
The package includes a new oil price ceiling: the price will drop to $47.60 - diplomats
The 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia includes a new ban on transactions related to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2
Kallas; Rosneft's largest oil refinery in India is on the list.
Kallas; Chinese banks and 22 Russian banks are on the lists
Ban on the import of oil products based on Russian oil into the EU
New export restrictions on dual-use equipment
🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising