Likelihood of Partner Contributions to Scenarios Likelihood of Partner Contributions to Scenarios in the case of
- Conflict over Taiwan
- Korean War
- Scarborough clash with Philippines
- Stability operation in Korea
Primary Findings from Rand Corporation paper
Our analysis produced findings specific to each ally or partner. The following were among the high-level takeaways from the geopolitical analysis:
• Australia and Japan have significant security interests at stake in major Asian contingencies. But both will face political (and, in the case of Japan, legal and constitutional) hurdles to participating in wars that do not directly engage them at first.
* South Korea values the U.S. alliance but has little interest in being a cobelligerent off the Korean Peninsula.
* We found little evidence that, unless directly attacked itself, Thailand is willing to endanger its security by offering military aid to the United States.
• Several other regional countries—notably India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam— have very strong traditions of nonalignment and display no evidence of being willing to volunteer to join a war that does not directly involve them.
• New Zealand and the Philippines have few air assets to devote to a major fight and strong incentives to remain aloof from distant wars.
• Various factors will affect final choices of these partners, such as the degree of Chinese belligerence between now and the crisis, degree of U.S. commitment, and political changes in other countries in the region.
Short-timer US Secretary of State Blinken making promises as he SLAMS the door
“For the first time in decades, Syria has an opportunity to have a government that is run by and answers to the people, not dominated by a dictator, religious or ethnic group, or outside power,” Blinken said.
Sounds like Iraq and Afghanistan all over again…
@MTodayNews
⚡Negotiations with new Syrian authorities about Russian bases in Syria almost over. According to unconfirmed reports Russia is supposed to keep the bases.
@eurasianchoice
Against the background of the visit of a Turkish delegation to Damascus, including the head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, who is considered the supreme curator of the terrorists from the HTS, the militants are trying to intensify their offensive against the Kurdish positions as much as possible.
One of the key targets is Raqqa, the former ISIS capital. The city itself (in the video) is turbulent, with local tribes openly opposing the Kurds and demanding the withdrawal of SDF forces.
Another important news is the announcement by the new Syrian government that it will revoke the citizenship of 700,000 Shiites from Iraq and Iran who received it during Assad's rule. Virtually all of these people will be outlawed.
@Slavyangrad
Orban Putin Trump Talk Ukraine Peace; Biden Prepares Oil Sanctions, Wants Syria Arms for Kiev
Читать полностью…
Clintons, George Soros and Bill Gates may be scrutinized under Trump – Wall Street analyst
The globalist elites and much-discussed US "deep state" may no longer shield the Clintons, as they have outlived their usefulness, Wall Street analyst Charles Ortel tells Sputnik, commenting on the prospects of a federal investigation into the political dynasty and their alleged charity fraud.
"Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden have outlived their usefulness to rich globalists," Ortel states.
The election defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris, along with the inability of the Clintons, Obamas, and Bidens to produce a more vibrant and popular presidential candidate, apparently exposed their political bankruptcy.
As a result, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who has long been considered an ally of the Democrats, dismissed the party's gloom-and-doom warnings and openly signaled in October that a Donald Trump victory would be acceptable for Wall Street.
"Should the Trump administration prioritize prosecuting charity crimes, starting with wealthy donors like Bill Gates and George Soros and wealthy 'educational public charities,' whistleblowers and the incoming administration could make America proud by [taking down] the Clinton family and many other charity grifters who, even today, seem arrogantly unrepentant and unbowed," Ortel concludes.
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🏁💬🇪🇺Great news, Eurobros: everyone's favorite NATO Secretary General Rutti Frutti called for a portion of pensions and social payments in Europe to be used for weapons production. He noted that the bloc's military spending should exceed 3%.
He said that he does not currently see a direct threat to any of the alliance members from Russia but called for strengthening defense.
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🇵🇱🇫🇷 Polish PM Donald Tusk told French President Emmanuel Macron that Polish troops will not enter Ukraine even after a ceasefire is reached.
"We are not planning such actions yet," Tusk told reporters after a meeting with Macron, commenting on the French leader's initiative to create an international peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
Poland will cooperate on solutions that will first and foremost protect Europe and Ukraine from a resumption of the conflict after a ceasefire, if it can be achieved, the official added.
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Another execution of Alawites.
It’s cruel and unhinged.
“Moderate” rebels
#LordBeboExclusive
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Uighur militants of the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (banned in Russia) threaten China.
The terrorists show a warehouse with ammunition from the Grad MLRS of the Syrian army, promising to use them against China in the future.
@eurasianchoice
New China focused show with Laurent Michelon who, like myself has been living in China for 30 years.
We covered South Korea coup and the implications in Taiwan. The exact same scenario could happen in Taiwan.
This is why the KMT is moving with proposals on amending the process to enact Martial Law in Taiwan.
From 30 days to validate the martial law at the Legislative Yuan to 24 hours, extendable to 56 hours.
There is a very serious threat and possibility of a false flag operation that could trigger a martial law to be declared by US puppet President Lai.
What happened in South Korea didn't happen in a vacuum. South Korea, Japan and the US are also working on a trilateral alliance to possibly fight North Korea and China while at the same time the US is pushing the Philippines to trigger war with China related to old maritime disputes.
Soon Ukrainian war will be over and somehow the Middle East might cool down that would allow for the US/NATO/AUKUS to pivot to Asia/China.
It will be the Ukrainian war on steroids that could possibly turn into Word War 3.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kiev built a key fortification near Pokrovsk for tens of millions of hryvnias, but "🅾️" grouping stole it from the AFU without a single shot 😂
- The AFU command gave Russian troops from the "Center" group of forces a powerful fortification.
- "They built a key fortification near Pokrovsk, finally a good one, for several tens of millions of hryvnias, but did not have time to send our soldiers there because of certain inadequate management decisions of the command," said Butusov, a well-known Kiev propagandist.
- "Now, the key, in tactical terms fortification, has already been seized by the enemy, without a fight. He went in there before the military command sent at least one man there. As a result, tens of millions were spent, [great work was done there: a correctly chosen position, a prepared defense strip, well covered from drones, from artillery strikes], and this entire fortress was given to the Russian troops by our command," he added.
@Slavyangrad
‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦The Russian DRG is already inside Pokrovsk territory, are entering from the south of the city.
▪️"There is unconfirmed information about the DRG on one of the extreme streets in Pokrovsk," writes the platoon commander of the AFU nationalist battalion "Aidar" Bunyatov.
▪️"Enemy DRGs are trying to penetrate into the extreme southern suburbs of Pokrovsk, which is quite logical due to the close proximity of the frontline to the city," confirms an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the call sign "Alex".
▪️Russian troops are less than 2 km from the city, as can be seen from the maps of the Ukrainian military analytical resource associated with the GUR, DeepState.
t.me/RVvoenkor
🇺🇸🇬🇪🇷🇺NEW VIDEO: US Targets Georgia to Extend Russia: Defending Against America's Regime Change Superweapon
On YouTube: https://youtu.be/lf8tmJHC-Fw?si=4WHDG11MS3_lc3rZ
"More must be done across the multipolar world to expose Washington’s regime change “superweapon,” promote the means by which to defend against it including foreign agent laws cutting off NED and adjacent foundation funding, and the creation of pipelines creating future political leaders, diplomats, business owners, and journalists who serve the best interests of their own nation, not Washington’s, and the creation of social media platforms within and between nations of the multipolar world beyond Washington’s control.
Today it is Georgia. Tomorrow - as the US has proven over the decades and its long and ever-growing list of nations divided and destroyed by US interference - it could be any nation next. "
Follow The New Atlas on Telegram: /channel/brianlovethailand
When asked about Israel’s hundreds of airstrikes against Syria to destroy all of the military capabilities of Syria, HTS Spokesperson Obeida Arnaout couldn’t even muster the courage to condemn Israel’s attacks
Al Qaeda in Syria is clearly nothing more than a proxy of Washington and Israel
La tentative avortée d'imposer la loi martiale en Corée du Sud a révélé que l'État profond 🇬🇧🇺🇸 ne recule devant rien pour tenir en laisse ses vassaux.
La "militarisation" des institutions judiciaires en est un autre exemple, et Taïwan pourrait être la prochaine victime d'une imposition de la loi martiale.
Angelo Giuliano et moi-même mettont cette question à plat dans l'épisode-pilote de notre podcast en préparation.
The botched #SouthKoreaMartialLaw attempt by #YoonSukYeol revealed that the US Deep State will stop at nothing to keep its grip on vassal states. #Lawfare is another way to stomp on democracy, and #Taiwan could be next. Angelo Giuliano and I break it down in the pilot of our podcast.
After Syria's collapse, who didn't see this one coming?
Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear sites – media
https://www.rt.com/news/609279-israel-iran-strikes-report/
🇺🇦🇷🇺🇺🇸‼️🚨
“About 1 million Ukrainian soldiers have died”
‘The Putin of Romania’: How does Western media try to defame Calin Georgescu?
Amid uncertainty surrounding Romania’s botched presidential elections, Western media has launched an information campaign against independent candidate Calin Georgescu, who earlier made it to the country’s presidential runoff.
His progress, however, was annulled by the country's constitutional court, which accused Georgescu of money laundering and being “Moscow’s man" - allegations he denies.
How does Western media paint the 62-year-old politician?
▪️The Financial Times: Romania shocked the world by voting for “a pro-Putin TikTok star” and “an outsider with ultranationalist views who was polling poorly just weeks before the election.”
▪️The BBC: Georgescu is “a figure from the extreme fringe of Romanian politics.”
▪️Sky News: He “has emerged from obscurity to top the polls in Romania's presidential election. But the Anglophile and Trump supporter is also his country's most divisive figure for decades.”
▪️AP: “A self-professed Donald Trump supporter”, Georgescu remained “a little-known entity until just weeks ago.”
▪️France 24: “The pro-Russian outsider candidate”.
▪️The Week: The “Putin of Romania” and “the EU and NATO’s worst nightmare.”
So here are the questions that need to be answered: what’s behind these headlines and who sponsored them?
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https://rumble.com/v5y5v9q-syria-power-vacuum-w-jeffrey-sachs-live.html
Читать полностью…
US deficit hits record $624B – worst-ever start to fiscal year
The US budget deficit for October and November 2024 reached $624.2 billion – 64% higher than the same period last year and the highest ever for the first two months of a fiscal year.
Growth in debt-funded spending has even surpassed levels seen during the COVID-19 crisis.
No DOGE alone is gonna help there
#US
🇷🇴🇷🇺 Romania has not yet published any evidence linking Russia to the first-round election victory of President Kelin Georgescu - Romanian publication Bursa
- The publication reports on the "absence of evidence in the national public space" following a report by Romania's Foreign Intelligence Service, which accused Russia of influencing the election, "without providing any concrete information to support the accusation."
- The newspaper also reports that all available information is published in European media, not Romanian media. In Europe, they write that Georgescu's campaign was supported by firms based in Poland and Bulgaria.
- A Ukrainian company that created videos for the Romanian candidate is based in Poland, while a number of online publications that wrote news about him are registered in Bulgaria.
- "Russian trace" has been suspected so far only in the latter case: Bulgarian publics claimed that the network was linked to Russia.
At the same time, the newspaper wonders why no one in Romania itself is voicing evidence that Georgescu's campaign is linked to Russia and is not passing this information to the media.
@Slavyangrad
What has Israeli military targeted in Syria?
Since the fall of the Assad government on December 8, Israel has conducted more than 480 strikes across Syria, destroying most of the country’s strategic military facilities in an alleged bid to keep them out of “the hands of extremists”, the Israeli Defense Forces have claimed.
According to the IDF, the strikes included 350 carried out by the Israeli Air Force, which targeted:
▪️The Syrian Army’s bases and armors, which includes anti-aircraft batteries, tanks and drones;
▪️The Syrian Arab Army's airbases of Al-Shayrat, Mezzeh, Kweiris and Khalkhalah and its fighter jets;
▪️Two Syrian naval facilities in Tartus and port of Latakia, where 15 vessels with dozens of sea-to-sea missiles were docked;
▪️Israel has also targeted ammunition depots and several research centers in the vicinity of Damascus and the suburbs of Qudsayah.
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❗️Anti-Assad forces to suspend Syrian constitution, parliament for duration of three-month transition period – statement
#Syria
@MTodayNews
Judeo-christianity is very weird term. It is the consequence of British Israelism theory mixed with dispensationalism. Initially British Israelism had two versions - philosemitic dn antisemitic. First now dominates. Second emphasized that Anglo-Saxons are 10 lost tribes.
In both versions the accent was placed on Protestant messianic vision. First philosemitic theory is based on the final christianization of jews. Second didn't pay much importance to jews. Real (new) jews are Anglos-Saxons. Britain is New Jerusalem. Hence Blake's Jerusalem anthem. Modern Zionist jews use the sympathy of judeo-christians but hardly they agree with final conversion idea.
Judeo-christianity is very weird term. It is the consequence of British Israelism theory mixed with dispensationalism. Initially British Israelism had two versions - philosemitic and antisemitic. First now dominates. Second emphasized that Anglo-Saxons are 10 lost tribes.
The British Israelism in its not philosemitic version but rather as form as Anglos-Saxon nationalism and imperialism has some analogue in Russia messianic tradition. But without 10 lost tribes figure and based on the Byzantine heritage.
Judeo-christianity in proper sense means some early sects that refused to recognize Christ as God considering Him as prophet. Arius and Nestorius can be consider judeo-christians. Protestant unitarians as well. For those who believe in Trinity this name is incorrect.
So Christian Zionism is geopolitically unfounded (Mearsheimer has shown that clearly for US) and theologically contradictory. Common denominator is hatred to Muslims. And weird heretic messianic views.
If the fate of Syrian Christians given by US into the hands of ISIS and Al-Quaeda terrorists doesn't bother so called "judeo-christians" they can not be called "christians" at all.
— Alexander Dugin
/channel/Dugin_Aleksandr
Russia, Per Protocol, Warned the US and is Going to Strike with Oreshnik. https://sonar21.com/russia-per-protocol-warned-the-us-and-is-going-to-strike-with-oreshnik/
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Bitcoin: future strategic asset in Russia? Why? Is it really a possibility?
According to some estimates, although never officially confirmed by Russian Finance Ministry, Russia owns around 110.000 BTC, most of these BTCs have not been bought but have been confiscated after 2014 when laws were intruduced to carefully track banking activities of MI6/CIA assets in the country, this led to a large increase in usage of crypto payments from the Western intelligence agencies towards its agents in Russia in order to avoid such new regulations. Of course as we all know there's no privacy using BTC for payments so when Russian authorities found out about these schemes they started large scale confiscations of the so-called "digital gold".
So regarding the recent proposal made inside the Duma to create a Russian Bitcoin Strategic Reserve it was logical for two reasons:
1_ it anticipates Trump's decision on the issue creating some headaches in the new US administration on what kind of advantage it might give to Russia if the value of the cryptocurrency goes up exponentially, especially if the Russian govt already owns BTC
2_ it might be a prelude to opening up to the possibility Russian oil and gas can be paid with cryptocurrencies if a full-fledged embargo is imposed on them by the West in order to make even more difficult to find out the origin if some kind of stablecoin is used as a tool and then converted to Bitcoin and then to Rubles making even a larger profit in the process if value keeps going up.
@eurasianchoice
After sending hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to die in Washington’s proxy war against Russia…
Now Zelensky opposes Washington’s order to lower the draft age to 18, to send even younger Ukrainians to die in a war that is already lost
"The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storages."
Zelensky is naive to think that the US cares about preserving Ukrainian, or Russian lives. The only purpose Ukraine has served is to be a battering ram to weaken Russia. The US couldn’t care less about lives, territory, democracy, or anything else.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev has held a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing during a 2-day visit to China and said he has a "personal message" from Russian President Vladimir Putin for him, a RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
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❗🇷🇺The Russian army liberated the settlement of Zarya in the DPR, — the Ministry of Defense
▪️Units of the Center group of forces liberated the settlement of Zarya in the Pokrovsk direction.
t.me/RVvoenkor
